KevinCoxItem


Just a couple'a chalky winners here yesterday.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


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Aqueduct - 11/17

 

Race 1 -

1.Blame Us All

2.Sallisaw

3.Sparty Boy

#5 BLAME US ALL is second off the shelf today, up for sale for the first time, won the only start when breaking from an outside slot. Toss in a next out winner from the last, and you have enough reason to use in this nondescript quintet. #3 SALLISAW ( a quiet Oklahoma track that actually houses Will Rogers Downs---one of the 52 where we have a winner's circle photo ) is another who is making his 2nd start post layoff, and achieved a gutsy placing in the lone fast track attempt here. #2 SPARTY BOY completes our troika of selections with a similar L/O scenario, and has never been entered this cheaply. 

 

Race 2 -

1.St. Augustine

2.Biblical/Potomac entry

3.Kelly Breen Entry

#5 ST. AUGUSTINE ( a theologian & philosopher https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Augustine_of_Hippo ) closed out the superfecta behind a runaway winner in last, and was getting Lasix for the first time that afternoon. Slight edge in a wide open deal. Both the #1 BIBLICAL and the #1A POTOMAC posted decent figs in last, with the former finishing fourth behind two next out winners, and the ladder improving his draw substantially today. Both halves of the #2/#2B Kelly Breen entry are logical, based on their recent numbers, but Juarez is listed on both, so one has to scratch. 

 

Race 3 -

1.Gold Shield

2.St. Louie

3.Scholar Athlete

#4 GOLD SHIELD is you're prototypical Shug runner---steady, steady, steady. This one is second off the layoff today, and that's of some relevance, as there's a solid DRF Formulator stat in play here. Over the last 260 weeks, barn is a jazzy 13:6-4-0 with 2nd off the shelf optional turf stayers who finished in the money last time out & are < 6-1 today ( NYRA circuit ). The ROI for that sampling is $4.20, and of course, we're fond of Franco on the sod. #3 ST. LOUIE is 2 for 4 locally ( 4-22 otherwise ) and is a very logical inclusion. #1 SCHOLAR ATHLETE goes one turn to two today, and the only times he's tried this move, a win & a third were the end results. OFF TURF: 4-1-1A-5-3

 

Race 4 -

1.Sidewinder

2.High Risk Strategy

3.Outvoted

#4 SIDEWINDER is a real interesting play in this spot. Grey ( recent ) gelding takes the biggest drop in the game today, and Schettino is a groovy 3 for 5 with one turn maiden claiming dirt runners off breaks of 55-111 days at odds > 7-1 & < 30-1. The winners came back a whopping $33, $23 & $19, and this one now returns WITH blinkers and WITHOUT cashews. #6 HIGH RISK STRATEGY takes the biggest drop in the game today and cuts back from two turns to one. #2 OUTVOTED improved drastically from the first start to the second and catches a glib surface for the first time today. 

 

Race 5 -

1.Space Key

2.Millies Party Boy

3.Gosilently

#3 SPACE KEY has gotten better and better and better and better, ( culminating with a career best number in losing by a bit over two last time out ), and believe it or not we have a Pat Kelly stat in play here !! The 7% shotcaller is a tidy 2 for 6 with Ozone Park based maiden special weight turfers going long after 16-38 day layoffs at < 20-1 ( OFF the board in last ). The winners came back $17 & $23, and you may get excellent value here. #2 MILLIES PARTY BOY has a decent body of work and sheds some weight while having eye cups added. If you can forgive the last, this one was heading in the right direction, so why not include? #7 GOSILENTLY owns some speed and has been a part of the action in his last six outings.  OFF TURF: 5-8-2-1-3

 

Race 6 -

1.Bunyaan

2.The Great Samurai

3.Reedini

There are three sublime trainer angles in play here, so let's trim the fat and get right to 'em.  #5 BUNYAAN: Randi Persaud ( of all people ! ) who bats 7% on the norm, is an unreal 17:7-0-4-2 with new acquisitions at Aqueduct in a one turn, mid level dirt event at < 20-1 ( 41% w/an ROI of more than 5 and a half bucks ). #8 THE GREAT SAMURAI: Toscano is a large and in charge 15:6-3-3 with runners of this ilk who hit the board 9-19 days back & are beneath 8-1 ( $2.90 ROI ). #1 REEDINI: Jacobsen is 9 for 24 with first off the claim stock fitting this criteria right here below the 5-1 watermark ( 23-45 days ) with a positive ROI in that regards.  NOTE: AS OF 11:50, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #7 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race 7 -

1.Reckless Humor

2.Sugar Mags

3.Free and Clear

#7 RECKLESS HUMOR folded like a house of cards in last, but before you dismiss this one on today's stretchout, you should know that he was a dead game runner up in the lone turf route right here nearly a year ago to the day. Lezcano one of the best in nursing front end types going long on the sod, and we'll take a shot. #9 SUGAR MAGS has Beyered in the 70's in three straight, and is 2 fer 8 when breaking from the outermost two slots ( 1-17 from other posts ). #1 FREE AND CLEAR as good as any for the show dough in an extremely blase' race.  OFF TURF: 11(MTO)-4-1-5-2

 

Race 8 -

1.Hannah's Smile

2.High Jingo ( AE )

3.Swayed ( AE )

#9 HANNAH'S SMILE is a triple Beyer play and should annihilate these with a clean trip. #16 HIGH JINGO (AE) needs A LOT of luck in order to make it over to the races today, but should that be the case, brings in tow some excellent speed, an advantageous slot, and a profound fondness for this new surface she's been spinning her hooves on. #15 SWAYED (AE) is another on the outside looking in, but has gone 60-71-72-75 in all four turf tries this annum, and we LOVE the versatility shown in last when coming from the back of the pack, rather than sending to the top like she usually does.  OFF TURF: 3-14(AE)-7-9-4  NOTE: AS OF 11:51, DUE TO TWO LATE SCRATCHES THE #'S 10 & 6 WILL BE OUR SECOND AND THIRD CHOICES RESPECTIVELY.

 

Race 9 -

1.Unspoken Mission

2.Tough Old Bird

3.Hay Field

#10 UNSPOKEN MISSION beat two home in the first start off more than a 13 month layoff --- the horse and the chase ambulance. That being said, Grey gal makes her first start for Kimmel today, and ( from a tiny sampling ) he's 2 for 2 when being given a new horse and giving them the biggest drop in the game ( 26-77 days ). The winners came back a healthy 8 & 23 clams, and this one may actually like the sand better than the sod. #2 TOUGH OLD BIRD had a troubled sojourn in last, but still came along nicely to close out the superfecta at 47-1 over at Elmont, and honk if you like Donk with locally based one turn runners of this ilk at < 20-1 ( OTB 15-29 days ago ). He more than doubles his regular 11% rate, as he's 5-20 w/a positive return on investment. #1 HAY FIELD has had Assaf reaching for the Alka Seltzer in the last two ( nose defeats ), but obviously must be left on all your tickets.

 


Aqueduct        ( Current )       13-81   ( $175.00 )       Beatable Favorites    5-15 ( 33.3% )    Favorites Win %     26-81   ( 32.1 % )( As of Friday morning )

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


Breeders' Cup    ( Final )        3-22    ( $15.40 )        Beatable Favorites     0-2   ( 0.0% )     Favorites Win %      2-22    ( 9.1 % )

Belmont Park     ( Final )      57-327 ( $517.00 )        Beatable Favorites  19-58( 32.8% )    Favorites  Win %  126-327 ( 38.5% )

Kee. Grade 1's   ( Final )             0-3    ( $0.00 )        Beatable Favorites   0-1   ( N/A )         Favorites Win %      0-3     ( 0.0% )

Pa. Derby/Cotil.  ( Final )            1-2     ( $3.80 )       Beatable Favorites   0-0   ( N/A )         Favorites Win %      1-2     ( 50.0% )

Woodbine G1's   ( Final )            0-2     ( $0.00 )       Beatable Favorites    0-1   ( N/A )        Favorites Win %      1-2     ( 50.0% )

Kentucky Downs( Final ):           8-50   ( $61.00 )     Beatable Favorites    0-2   ( 0.0 % )     Favorites Win %     13-50   ( 26.0% )

Saratoga            ( Final ):          68-406 ( $651.00 )  Beatable Favorites    8-40 ( 20.0% )    Favorites Win %   135-406 ( 33.3% )

Los Alamitos      ( Final ):          19-67  ( $123.60 )    Beatable Favorites    2-7   ( 28.6% )   Favorites Win %    28-67   ( 41.8% )

Santa Anita       ( Final ):         67-319 ( $464.80 )    Beatable Favorites    8-33  ( 24.2% )   Favorites Win %  120-319 ( 37.6% )

Belmont Day     ( Final ):          1-13   ( $11.60 )       Beatable Favorites    0-0    ( N/A )       Favorites Win %   5-13     ( 38.5% )

Preakness Day  ( Final ):          1-14   ( $20.00 )      Beatable Favorites    1-2    ( 50,0% )   Favorites Win %   5-14     ( 35.7% )

Churchill Downs ( Final ):          0-1     ( $0.00 )       Beatable Favorites    0-1     ( 0.0% )    Favorites Win %   0-1       ( 0.0% )

Keeneland         ( Final ):        31-141 ( $276.60 )    Beatable Favorites    5-13   ( 38.5% )  Favorites Win %  58-141   ( 41.1% )

Gulfstream        ( Final ):       194-958 ( $1,801.00 ) Beatable Favorites    22-87 ( 25.3% )  Favorites Win %  344-958  ( 35.9% )

Santa Anita        ( Final ):            1-11   ( $4.40 )     Beatable Favorites      0-0   ( N/A )     Favorites Win %    4-11     ( 36.4% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2014-2017 Final ): 47-304   ( $423.20 ) Beatable Favorites: 16-48 ( 33.3% ) Favorite's Win %: 99-304  ( 32.6% )  +/-: -30.4% against a 17.1% takeout                          


Poly Tracks 2014-6 (All Final): 85-568      ( $819.20 )   Beatable Favorites : 15-68     ( 22.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 163 -587 ( 27.8% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks   2014-7 (All Final):1666-7698 ($13,276.50)Beatable Favorites : 245-879( 27.9% ) Favorite's Win %: 2826-7781( 36.3% ) +/-: -13.8%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 1751-8266 ($14,095.70)Beatable Favorites : 260-947( 27.5% ) Favorite's Win %: 2989-8368 ( 35.7% ) +/-: -14.6%  against a 16.6% takeout


 CoxLA2017