KevinCoxItem


Couple of decent winners on a tough card yesterday, and our "Beatable Favorite" lost, as well.

Just a reminder that we'll be at the TAA ( Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance ) open house from 12-5 tonight, followed by a Pre-Eclipse party in the paddock that night, benefiting the TAA. Looking forward to seeing ya'll there, and usually they ask for a $20 donation upon entrance, so dig deep, and don't just "say" you're gonna donate to charity, then slip a dollar in there ( you KNOW who you are too !! ).


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 4: #5 Wellington's Appeal


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Gulfstream Park - 1/15 - Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance Charity Party in the Paddock tonight !!

 

Race 1-

1.Casting Couch

2.Lucent Lady

3.Sweetwater

#1 CASTING COUCH ( which I most assuredly did not have to partake in to get on "Horseplayers" ! ) put forth a couple of nice efforts in both attempts on the sod ( once against the lads ) but is infinitesimally better bred for the dirt ( 394 Tomlinson compared to 252 ). Dam was 2-9 in dirt sprints, and sire was 6-14 doing the same, so that aspect is looking good. Kobiskie is 1 for 2 with 3YO maiden claiming fillies making this surface switch off 13-33 day breaks. #2 LUCENT LADY fought the good fight in comebacker, snagging the place money at this level right here. Nicks 1 for 2 with 2nd off the layoff mdn. clmg. dirt sprinters ( 3 year old gals ). #4 SWEETWATER has been fairly consistent from a Beyer standpoint ( 4 of the 5 starts were in the 50-59 range ) but has immolated money of late, losing two straight at odds on. Leaving underneath. NOTE: AS OF 11:40, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, AND THE TRACK BEING SLOPPY, THE #3 WILL BE OUR 2ND CHOICE.

 

Race 2-

1.Wild About Jass

2.Lady's Lunar Luck

3.Archer Queen

One of the most difficult races of the meet, with no less than 8 of the 10 signed on having a legitimate shot. #9 WILD ABOUT JASS has been a little disappointing of late, but drops 20% in price to her lowest level yet today, and positively LOVES this course ( 6 for 15 ). 13% Braddy more than doubles that rate ( 2 for 7 ) w/2nd off the L/O turf routers that missed the tri in latest ( Fillies, 4YO & up ). Those winners paid $13 & $11, and we'll give this one a slight edge. #6 LADY'S LUNAR LUCK is a bit of a tongue twister, but there's nothing complicated about her current form as she's but a length and a half away from a five bagger. Outfit is 2:1-1-0 with 2nd off the claim mid level turf routers that won their last ( $17 ). #1 ARCHER QUEEN gets in light and may land a piece.  OFF TURF: 9-4-6-7-5  NOTE: AS OF 11:42, DUE TO 3 SCRATCHES, THE #1 WILL BE OUR OFF THE TURF 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race 3-

1.Indy Artist

2.Starship Menace

3.Go Salvatore Go

#6 INDY ARTIST crushes these like a grape. #9 STARSHIP MENACE has been given some time off as well as being transferred to a new barn. Overall resume' ain't half bad, and could get into the exotics if 100% sound. #5 GO SALVATORE GO has shown improved speed with the addition of blinkers, but has a tendency to breakdance in the last 1/8th of a mile. Leaving underneath. 

 

Race 4-

1.Too Clever by Half

2.Rocksie Lucie

3.Sweet Butterfly

#8 TOO CLEVER BY HALF flopped in the recent route attempt, but that wasn't really too much of a surprise, as this one's primarily a sprinter these days. Won in a similar spot prior to that and on the whole is 9 for 25 at this trip. #6 ROCKSIE LUCIE had an excellent 2015, amassing an overall ledger of 9:4-1-2, and Ward confidently steps her up to the highest level of her career. #9 SWEET BUTTERFLY is a nibbler by nature, having more than twice as many placings as wins, but digs the scenery here so we'll toss into the mix. OFF TURF: 6-4-2-5-7  BEATABLE FAVORITE: I just don't feel that the #5 WELLINGTON'S APPEAL has the numbers to match up with a few others in here.

 

Race 5-

1.Cardinal Cove

2.Afleet Mary

3.Justice for Sheena

#3 CARDINAL COVE has only beaten home 5 of 24 in the last two, but let's be reasonable, baby, those were stakes events and this is an optional claimer. Speed figures for all this one's firm turf events aren't too shabby, and to be honest, I feel that if you give this one a chance to breathe and develop, she just may develop into a nice runner. Nunez back aboard today, and he was astride for the maiden breaker. #4 AFLEET MARY won this race 23 days back, so why not leave in here ? #1 JUSTICE FOR SHEENA has steadily progressed up the Beyer ladder in her last quartet, culminating with a nose loss against slightly weaker on 12/23 at 47-1. Jockey has one more win than me this meet, and I'm not even riding. Including because of the price. OFF TURF: 7-2-8-9-11(MTO)  NOTE: AS OF 1:18, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 10-9-3.

 

Race 6-

1.Fury pf the Nile

2.Our Commodore

3.Dayne's Pulpit

#1 FURY OF THE NILE broke from the 3 hole when the curtains went up, but was bumped at the start, and that can be difficult for a newbie to overcome from the inside area. Nonetheless, he didn't disgrace himself, and split the field at 21-1. Machado--12% day to day-- is 1 for 5 w/2TS going one turn on the dirt at this level, and is 1 for 2 when adding blinkers for the first time ( 26-51 day breaks ). That winner paid $74, and this one could be a surprise with a clean trip. #4 OUR COMMODORE hasn't been seen since the spring, but Pletcher does well with returnees of this type, and decides to drop this one down today. Colt faced a couple of goodies in Wisecracker and Japan, and is a major threat if sound. #5 DAYNE'S PULPIT is another taking the biggest drop in the game, and Dwoskin is 2 for 5 when doing that to his one turn dirt runners coming off this kind of break ( $8 and $9 ).  NOTE: AS OF 11:46, DUE TO THE TRACK BEING SLOPPY, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS ARE 1-6-5.

 

Race 7-

1.Flipshot

2.Strike Up the Band

3.Lying Chief

#7 FLIPSHOT has quit badly in the last two, but draw a line through the turf event, as he's lousily bred for the stuff, and the stakes race may have been too deep. 14% shedrow is a monster 6 for 11 going green to brown and long to short ( $4.54 ROI ), and we'll lean this way at a price. #5 STRIKE UP THE BAND is another that regressed with the switch to the sod, but beat 10 others in smart fashion to get the diploma at Keeneland on 10/22. Maker is a juicy 4 for 7 when going turf to dirt with his 2nd off the layoff sprinters ( 3YO ), and has a fat $3.58 ROI with 'em. #6 LYING CHIEF has been perfect in two starts to date, and what the hell's wrong with that ?  NOTE: AS OF 11:48, DUE TO THE TRACK BEING SLOPPY, THE #1 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race 8-

1.Tiz Town

2.Seventhfleethumor

3.Scorch

#4 TIZ TOWN has been doing most of his work on the grass, and been faring well over the stuff, too. The last off the turf event ( just his 2nd on the dirt ) was pretty darn good, as he ended up a well beaten 3rd at 11-1. IMHO this one is better suited for the sandy stuff, and am expecting a vastly improved performance today. Note: Wilkes more than doubles his everyday batting average with older dirt routing males that last raced 42-84 days ago ( 7 for 27 with a $2.82 ROI ). #7 SEVENTHFLEETHUMOR is another switching surfaces today, and both attempts over the stuff back in '14 weren't too shabby. #6 SCORCH got up in time to win by a whisker at Woodbine 48 days ago, and adjusted figure from the stakes dirt route came back a 93.4. A MUST inclusion in all your rollers.  NOTE: AS OF 11:50, DUE TO THE TRACK BEING SLOPPY, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS ARE NOW 4-6-1.

 

Race 9-

1.Sir Dudley Digges

2.Chief Admiral

3.Ninety One Assault

SIR DUDLEY DIGGES ( 1583-1639 ) isn't just the #12 here, he was an English aristocrat and politician ( en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dudley_Digges ). As this chap will most likely be the favorite at post time, I doubt any win wager will put us in parimutual aristocracy, however he seems too solid to ignore. Colt has early foot, improving numbers, and 22% barn nearly doubles that ( 5-12 ) with 3YO male runners that hit the board in most recent, and are returning under these circumstances ( 23-47 days ). Gio Ponti over a Kris S. dam---the sky's still the limit with this one. #5 CHIEF ADMIRAL rallied stoutly in the career opener, coming from 10th at the half mile pole, to finish 2nd, losing by less than a length. Breeding is god, and Casse is 3 for 9 w/2nd time starters if this ilk that crashed the tri in last. #13 NINETY ONE ASSAULT fired off a bullet for new trainer Mott up at Palm Meadows 8 days ago, and is an obvious player, exiting a graded stakes.  OFF TURF: 1-14(MTO)-8-3-4  NOTE: AS OF 1:15, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS ARE 14-10-9.

 

Race 10-

1.Zulu

2.Cardio Cowboy

3.Decisionsdecisions

#8 ZULU all the way. #5 CARDIO COWBOY ( Dig it ) was sparkling in winning right outta the box up at Philadelphia, and the 3rd place finisher came back to score in next ( 63 Beyer ). I like that the local rider is slated to take the helm once again, and is uber dangerous should the top choice not fire. #6 DECIONSDECISIONS shoots for the hat trick today, and may actually move up with the transition from poly to dirt.  NOTE: AS OF 11:52, DUE TO THE TRACK BEING SLOPPY, WE ARE FLIP FLOPPING OUR 2ND AND 3RD SELECTIONS. NOTE: AS OF 4:49, DUE TO A LATE, LATE SCRATCH, THE #6 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race 11-

1.High Heeled

2.Little Gianna

3.Megatoni

Discounting the off the turf fiasco at the end of November, #6 HIGH HEELED had gone 27-29-53 in all her turf tries, and as she really ain't facing much here, could continue that progression at a nice price. #8 LITTLE GIANNA adds blinkers off a big effort on October 29, and while some may ask "Why mess with success ?" I've always liked when a barn has the guts to make an equipment or medication change off a nice start. The 10K drop should help matters, too, but miss was a recent vet scratch, so examine pre race. #3 MEGATONI is another dropping a bit, and may grab a slice of Entenmann's coffee cake.  OFF TURF: 10-1-8-4-5  NOTE: AS OF 1:13, DUE TO TWO LATE SCRATCHES, OUR SELECTIONS ARE NOW 10-11-12.

 

Gulfstream Stats ( Current ):        53-270  ( $436.00 )  Beatable Favorites:    7-29 ( 24.1% )Favorite's Win %: 95-270 ( 35.2% )


Gulfstream West Stats (Calder):   29-188  (  $198.20 ) Beatable Favorites:    4-29 ( 13.8% )Favorite's Win %: 64-188 ( 34.0% )+/-: -47.2% against a 17.0% takeout

Breeders' Cup Festival Stats:        6-31     (  $32.40 )  Beatable Favorites:     1-2  ( 50.0% )Favorite's Win %: 12-31 ( 32.2% )+/-: -47.6% against a 16.0% takeout

Keeneland Stats (2015 Final):     35-159  ( $328.60 ) Beatable Favorites:     5-15 ( 33.3% )Favorite's Win %: 59-159( 37.1% )+/-:  +3.3%  against a 16.0% takeout

Monmouth Stats  (2015 Final):     92-398  ( $619.80 ) Beatable Favorites:     8-25 ( 32.0% )Favorite's Win %:164-398( 41.2% )+/-: - 22.1% against a 17.0% takeout

Travers Day Stats(2015 Final):      3-13    ( $29.80 )  Beatable Favorite:       0-0  (   0.0% )Favorite's Win %:  6-13   ( 46.2% ) +/- : +16.5% against a 15.0% takeout

Santa Anita Stats(2015 Final):     67-290 ( $462.00 ) Beatable Favorites:   18-39 ( 46.2% ) Favorite's Win %:141-334( 42.2% ) +/-:  -20.4% against a 15.0% takeout

Belmont Stats     (2015 Final):       2-13     ($25.90 ) Beatable Favorites:      1-6  ( 16.7% ) Favorite's Win %:   2-13  ( 15.4% ) +/-:   even    against a  15.0% takeout

Pimlico Stats       (2015 Final):       1-14      ( $6.80 ) Beatable Favorites:      3-3  ( 100%  ) Favorite's Win %:   5-14  ( 35.7% ) +/-:  -75.7% against an 18.0% takeout

Churchill Stats     (2015 Final):      2-25    (  $15.40 ) Beatable Favorites:      2-4  ( 50.0% ) Favorite's Win %;   6-25  ( 24.0% ) +/-:  -69.0% against a 17.5% takeout

Keeneland Stats  (2015 Final):    39-139  ( $278.00 ) Beatable Favorites:     3-13 ( 23.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 56-139 ( 40.3% ) +/-:   even   against a 16.0% takeout

Gulfstream Stats (2015 Final): 163-848 ( $1,467.70 ) Beatable Favorites : 31-104 ( 29.8% ) Favorite's Win %: 330-848 (38.9%) +/-: -13.5% against a 17.0% takeout


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, and Travers full days (Above Churchill, Pimlico, and Belmont included in dirt and cumulative numbers):

( 2014-2015 Final ): 28-158   ( $292.80 ) Beatable Favorites: 11-29 ( 37.9% ) Favorite's Win %: 55-158  ( 34.8% )  +/-: -7.4% against a 16.9% takeout                              


Poly Tracks 2014   (All Final): 83-557     ( $789.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-67   ( 22.4% ) Favorite's Win %: 160 -576  ( 27.8% ) +/-: -29.3% against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks 2014-5 (All Final): 690-3239 ($5,633.30) Beatable Favorites : 111-372( 29.8% ) Favorite's Win%: 1212-3302 ( 36.7% ) +/-: -14.4%  against a 17.0% takeout

___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Cumulative Stats (All Final): 773-3796 ($6,422.50) Beatable Favorites : 118-381 ( 29.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 1368-3878 ( 35.3% ) +/-: -15.4% against a 17.0% takeout


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