KevinCoxItem


Just one lonely winner on the day yesterday, and got nosed out of a bad trip 10-1 shot, but them's the breaks. Good to be back down here, and just a reminder that we'll be at the TAA ( Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance ) open house from 12-5 on Friday, followed by a Pre-Eclipse party in the paddock that night, benefiting the TAA. Looking forward to seeing ya'll there, and usually they ask for a $20 donation upon entrance, so dig deep, and don't just "say" you're gonna donate to charity, then slip a dollar in there ( you KNOW who you are too !! ).


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 7 - #8 Market Strength


I want to thank those that read my column, and have recently opened up accounts as a result of their fondness for what they see here. If you have any questions at any time, you can reach me here on Disqus, or on Twitter @brooklyncowboy1. For those who dig the scene here, and would like to be part of it, registration on our home page is easy, and if you'd like, feel free to include my name in the referral box, and let me know, so I can try and get ya' some cool swag!


 

Gulfstream Park - 1/14

 

Race 1-

1.Jose Sea View

2.Riviere Du Loup

3.Gunderson

#3 JOSE SEA VIEW came home with a flourish to procure the place dough under nearly identical circumstances 29 days ago, and there's no reason to believe that another solid effort isn't within reach. 17% Gonzalez is a wonderful 5 for 12 ( 43% ) with mid level turf routers that hit the board 19-39 days ago ( $3.03 ROI ). #5 RIVIERE DU LOUP goes for the hat trick today, and over the last 5 years, Servis ( 23% ) is 5 -13 ( 38% ) with the same categories listed above ( substituting "ITM" with "won last" ) and the ROI for said runners is $3.01 . #9 GUNDERSON is 4:0-1-3 locally, 6:1-2-2 at the trip, and gets reunited with Castellano today, with whom he put forth his best effort.  OFF TURF: 5-6-8-3-4  NOTE: AS OF 12:24, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #7 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race 2-

1.Dunkin Bend

2.El Kracken

3.Put Summ Back

#6 DUNKIN BEND got a little bit leggy in last, and was DQ'd from 3rd for drifting out late. Gets a tremendous jockey switch today from a bug that's been a bit reckless down here at times, to the greatest jockey in North America. Grey fella is 2 for 8 at the dx. ( compared to 0-7 at other distances ) and we feel the race goes through him. #2 EL KRACKEN hasn't shown much in the last two, but maybe he was hampered a bit by the outside draws ? I mean, you know I like horses breaking from the outermost slots, as usually it ensures a cleaner trip, but this one is 4:0-1-0 from the 5 hole on out, and 6:2-2-0 from the 4 on in. Gelding sheds 10 pounds today, as bug gets the first mount of his career, so we'll leave him in the mix. #5 PUT SUMM BACK is merely a longshot play to round things out. 

 

Race 3-

1.Just Like Kaki

2.Belpiana

3.Forever Afleet

#6 JUST LIKE KAKI has a nasty case of "fourth-itis", having closed out the superfecta in four straight, but Guidel had to tap on the brakes a bit in most recent, and gal catches firm ground today which could be the difference maker. Slight edge. #12 BELPINA overcame the 11 hole in last to rally well for 2nd at this level 5 weeks ago. Show horse from that day won next out in a similar spot, hanging up a 70 Beyer in the process, and as long as there's some pace to cut into this one should be right there once again. #8 FOREVER AFLEET has an okay body of work and drops down to her lowest level yet.  OFF TURF: 8-1-11-10-12

 

Race 4-

1.Lucky Bella

2.Redbeard

3.Barbie Loca

#6 LUCKY BELLA regressed in a big way in her 2nd off the layoff attempt, merely splitting the field at odds of 7-2. There's sunrise on the horizon though, as Plesa has excellent numbers when dropping his 3rd off the layoff runners 50% or more ( 3 for 6, with the winners paying $16, $19, and $4 --- and 2 for 2 with a subcategory of adding females to that ). #3 REDBEARD was visually impressive when drawing away to best cheaper across town two months back, and was given a bit of a freshening by Orseno after the effort. Cuts back to one turn today ( which is fine, as he's won at a flat mile before ), and Orseno is 2 for 4 when stepping up his female dirt runners that won their last 42-84 days ago ( $14 & $11 ). #2 BARBIE LOCA missed by a honker when last seen back on 10/23, and is 2:1-1-0 locally.

 

Race 5-

1.Livin for Love

2.Variety of Colors

3.Zip's Legacy

The #5 LIVIN FOR LOVE is a fine example as to why I use DRF Formulator. The first thing I entered with this one was "Matz with a trainer switch". Okay, the number that came up was 1 for 30. Most people would instantly toss this animal out because of that statistic. What I do is take the time ( about 3 minutes or so ) and see if I can whittle down the number somewhat. I entered "Turf"--number came down. Entered "Route"--number came down. Then kept entering things such as 4YO and up, Females, 180-360 days, and finally Gulfstream Park. Eventually, that 1-30 first look came all the way down to 1 for 2 ( $18 ). Now, is that enough data to send it in with ? Of course not. But what it does do is show that there's a potential to be a little extra value with this one than you might imagine. Toss in the fact that the adjusted number from the debut was an 80.8 ( at a higher level ), and that the top two won their next time out ( with 4 of the top 5 Beyering between 71-86 subsequently ), you have the makings of an interesting animal. #12 VARIETY OF COLORS stretches out today, and while the numbers are just so so, sometimes these type can get brave on the front end. #8 ZIP'S LEGACY drops for the second straight time, and the Casse/Lezcano combo always does well.  OFF TURF: 3-2-4-8-5

 

Race 6-

1.Caramelo

2.Midterm Exam

3.Crazy Frank C

#8 CARAMELO has raced but twice on the dirt over the last year ( 16 starts ), but had a second and a win ( at this dist. ) over the stuff. Note that the win came when he was going turf to dirt and two turns to one. Hmmmm.... #1 MIDTERM EXAM has strong figures and plummets today. Logical. #4 CRAZY FRANK C  ( named after the not so crazy owner, who's actually a pretty good guy ! ) is properly halved in claiming price today after a hum drum 5th place finish 8 days ago. Paco returns, and he was aboard for the maiden breaker. 

 

Race 7-

1.Second Mate

2.Favorite Heir

3.Leonardo Da Vinci

We're positively gushing over the chances of the #3 SECOND MATE. Nicely bred Mizzen Mast colt has climbed up the Beyer ladder since debuting at The Shore on Labor Day, and shown versatility in doing it under three sets of circumstances ( Dirt, firm turf, soft turf ). Cibelli, 21% when brushing her teeth in the morning, is a sensational 5 for 10 w/maiden special weight turf routers in the 22-44 day range ( with 8 of them hitting the board and a whopping $6.95 ROI ). Additionally, if you factor in "out of the money in last" ( a stat which you would think would lower the numbers ), barn is still 4 for 8 ! As Billy Mays used to say---"But wait...there's more !!" I remember this trainer/jockey combo doing well down here in the past, and lo and behold---they're 6-18 ( 33.3333% ) in tandem, with a $2.90 ROI. Likey likey. #4 FAVORITE HEIR nearly took them on a tour de force right here back in August, and ended up a well clear 2nd for his efforts. Be forgiving of the followup, as it was over soft ground, and he displayed good speed against a next out winner ( 75 ). Wolfson has given this one a bit of a break, and wouldn't be surprised to see a solid showing at double digit odds. #14 LEONARDO DA VINCI finally gets some class relief after tangling with stakes foes, and there's a jockey upgrade to boot. The gorilla in the room is that he's a closer from the 14 hole, and will need a perfect sojourn.  OFF TURF: 1-9-5-10-3  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #8 MARKET STRENGTH is 7-2 on the M.L. because of the connections, but in all honesty, I ain't too floored by the bloodlines, and will take a stand against in this large herd.

 

Race 8-

1.Saturday Special

2.Empower

3.Chepstow

#11 SATURDAY SPECIAL has been a mite flat in the last duet, but the Claiming Crown event can be forgiven as his forte' was never an off track, but is now back in for a tag for the first time in over 7 months. How is he when up for sale ? Well, how does three for the last three grab ya' ? Furthermore ( and heretofore, and close the door ), gelding is 4 for 6 at this trip ( compared to a 5-31 record at other dx.'s ) and 27% Navarro is 10 for 25 ( 40% ) with 2nd off the L/O one turn dirt runners at this level. #6 EMPOWER is another that digs this dist. ( 3-8 versus an 0-8 ledger otherwise ), and may surprise at a price. #10 CHEPSTOW has crashed the tri in 2/3rd's of his local starts, and Saez takes the helm of this 20-1 shot.

 

Race 9-

1.Tar and Feather

2.Queen's Princess

3.Red Neck Song

#9 TAR AND FEATHER has lost ground in seven straight, but draws well, Caraballo has heated up ( like I knew he would, pre-meet ), digs the palm trees here, and Gold is 3 for 6 with allowance dirt runners that finished 1-2-3  19-39 days back. Lukewarm choice. #1 QUEEN'S PRINCESS beat 10 others at a one turn mile beneath the twin spires back in early November, and connections more than double their win rate ( 3 for 9 ) with 3rd off the bench runners making this surface switch and going one turn ( $26, $7, and $7 ). #2 RED NECK SONG may last for a share.  

 

Race 10-

1.Changing Tactics

2.Gottum ( AE )

3.El Shaddai

This race just smells like a longshot... The conditioner of the #10 CHANGING TACTICS is doing just that after gelding didn't lift a hoof in debut: Drop in class, new rider, and the hood comes off. Let's not be too harsh about the debut, as it was an off the turf event, and he was a gazillion to one that day. 15% Canadian based conditioner is 2 for 5 with 3YO 2nd time starters in the maiden claining ranks, and those that got their photos taken paid a luscious $27 and $128. Like I said, not really diggin' too much here, so why not ? #15 GOTTUM (AE) hasn't done much to get the pulse racing, but debut wasn't terrible, and there's Storm Cat in the family tree. #7 EL SHADDAI is 2nd off the L/O and gets firm turf with juice for the first time.  OFF TURF: 5-3-1-13-9 

 

Gulfstream Stats ( Current ):        51-260  ( $412.00 )  Beatable Favorites:    7-28 ( 25.0% )Favorite's Win %: 93-260 ( 35.8% )


Gulfstream West Stats (Calder):   29-188  (  $198.20 ) Beatable Favorites:    4-29 ( 13.8% )Favorite's Win %: 64-188 ( 34.0% )+/-: -47.2% against a 17.0% takeout

Breeders' Cup Festival Stats:        6-31     (  $32.40 )  Beatable Favorites:     1-2  ( 50.0% )Favorite's Win %: 12-31 ( 32.2% )+/-: -47.6% against a 16.0% takeout

Keeneland Stats (2015 Final):     35-159  ( $328.60 ) Beatable Favorites:     5-15 ( 33.3% )Favorite's Win %: 59-159( 37.1% )+/-:  +3.3%  against a 16.0% takeout

Monmouth Stats  (2015 Final):     92-398  ( $619.80 ) Beatable Favorites:     8-25 ( 32.0% )Favorite's Win %:164-398( 41.2% )+/-: - 22.1% against a 17.0% takeout

Travers Day Stats(2015 Final):      3-13    ( $29.80 )  Beatable Favorite:       0-0  (   0.0% )Favorite's Win %:  6-13   ( 46.2% ) +/- : +16.5% against a 15.0% takeout

Santa Anita Stats(2015 Final):     67-290 ( $462.00 ) Beatable Favorites:   18-39 ( 46.2% ) Favorite's Win %:141-334( 42.2% ) +/-:  -20.4% against a 15.0% takeout

Belmont Stats     (2015 Final):       2-13     ($25.90 ) Beatable Favorites:      1-6  ( 16.7% ) Favorite's Win %:   2-13  ( 15.4% ) +/-:   even    against a  15.0% takeout

Pimlico Stats       (2015 Final):       1-14      ( $6.80 ) Beatable Favorites:      3-3  ( 100%  ) Favorite's Win %:   5-14  ( 35.7% ) +/-:  -75.7% against an 18.0% takeout

Churchill Stats     (2015 Final):      2-25    (  $15.40 ) Beatable Favorites:      2-4  ( 50.0% ) Favorite's Win %;   6-25  ( 24.0% ) +/-:  -69.0% against a 17.5% takeout

Keeneland Stats  (2015 Final):    39-139  ( $278.00 ) Beatable Favorites:     3-13 ( 23.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 56-139 ( 40.3% ) +/-:   even   against a 16.0% takeout

Gulfstream Stats (2015 Final): 163-848 ( $1,467.70 ) Beatable Favorites : 31-104 ( 29.8% ) Favorite's Win %: 330-848 (38.9%) +/-: -13.5% against a 17.0% takeout


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, and Travers full days (Above Churchill, Pimlico, and Belmont included in dirt and cumulative numbers):

( 2014-2015 Final ): 28-158   ( $292.80 ) Beatable Favorites: 11-29 ( 37.9% ) Favorite's Win %: 55-158  ( 34.8% )  +/-: -7.4% against a 16.9% takeout                              


Poly Tracks 2014   (All Final): 83-557     ( $789.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-67   ( 22.4% ) Favorite's Win %: 160 -576  ( 27.8% ) +/-: -29.3% against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks 2014-5 (All Final): 690-3239 ($5,633.30) Beatable Favorites : 111-372( 29.8% ) Favorite's Win%: 1212-3302 ( 36.7% ) +/-: -14.4%  against a 17.0% takeout

___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Cumulative Stats (All Final): 773-3796 ($6,422.50) Beatable Favorites : 118-381 ( 29.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 1368-3878 ( 35.3% ) +/-: -15.4% against a 17.0% takeout


GP2016bio