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We arrived in Florida on a strong note, scoring a five bagger on Sunday ( four in a row ), including some pick 3's and even our 2nd choice in one of the later races spiced things up, when scoring at 19-1.

Looking forward to seeing all the usual suspects down here, and remember feel free to meet up and say hi ( and those of you that owe me a beer---you KNOW who you are !! ). Additionally, we'll be at the TAA ( Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance ) open house from 12-5 on Friday, followed by a Pre-Eclipse party in the paddock that night, benefiting the TAA. Looking forward to seeing ya'll there, and usually they ask for a $20 donation upon entrance, so dig deep, and don't just "say" you're gonna donate to charity, then slip a dollar in there ( you KNOW who you are too !! ).


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 10 - #4 Updraft


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Gulfstream Park - 1/13

 

Race 1-

1.Ufeelthiscornelius

2.Starship Galaxy

3.Cheri's Win

Every time I see the #6 UFEELTHISCORNELIUS entered, it harkens me back to the "Soul Train" days and super cool Don Cornelius https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Don_Cornelius  This runner has really been breakdancing in the last two, but finds herself at her lowest level to date and undergoes a few changes today. New ( bug ) jockey climbs aboard, the aforementioned drop, and most importantly: turf to dirt. Why is that relevant ? Well, simply that over the last 5 years, Tharrenos ( 12% day to day ) more than triples that percentage ( 3 for 8 ) when having his runners make this surface switch and putting them up for sale in a one turn race. The ROI was a nice $2.31, but keep in mind that front wraps were added for the last, so take a strong look in the paddock. #1 STARSHIP GALAXY is another that has been finishing in the rear with the gear of late, but is reunited with her winning jockey today, and 10% outfit is 1 for 4 w/2nd off the claim low level dirt sprinters. This is alsoone that had bandages affixed recently, so you have some work to do pre-race. #3 CHERI'S WIN broke her maiden right here, and lost by a honker in another local effort. As good as any for the show dough.

 

Race 2-

1.Nileator

2.Catanova

3.Burley Blaise

#7 NILEATOR has cashed checks in just about all of his 11 starts, but none of them have given me the "wow" factor. That being said, this one now tries one turn over a fast dirt strip for the first time, and sometimes a relaxed trip at a flat mile is all it takes to turn the light bulb on in these type. Romans ( 15% day to day ) is 2 for 5 with maiden special weight dirt runners making this cutback in the 32-64 day range, and those winners returned healthy prices ( $20 & $21 ). The runner up from last came back to win next time out ( 74 ) and the winner threw up a 77 in his return engagement. #1 CATANOVA has crashed the superfecta in seven straight, and Tomlinson is 3:1-2-0 ( $33 ) with his mdspwt. dirt sprinters. #6 BURLEY BLAISE is merely a longshot toss in for 3rd, being he's 3rd off the L/O, 2nd time Lasix, and the fact that Lanerie gets on.

 

Race 3-

1.Giant Inka

2.Give to U.K Cats

3.Gone Local

#1 GIANT INKA is our play of the day. Don't be too harsh about the 8th place finish on the lawn, as the adjusted number came back pretty good, and his turf pedigree is probably just on par with the dirt. If you felt inclined to pro rate that last to his best one turn figure ( which we most definitely did ) then you can clearly see that it supersedes anything anyone in this race has run, or ( IMHO ) is capable of running. Drops in class, sheds some post holiday lb.'s ( my hero ), and slides in to the wood. Sign us up. #7 GIVE TO U.K. CATS was as green in grass for the career opener, but still fought the good fight and finished a clear 2nd that day before making his way back to a new barn post race. I always like when a pre-claim jockey returns to ride, and if Corey can nurse this one to an easy lead, then I'll be puking by the half mile pole. #4 GONE LOCAL stepped up in class and outran his odds by beating half the field home that day, and with the improved effort beneath his girth strap should give another good effort on the dropdown.

 

Race 4-

1.Breakeven Analysis

2.Foxhall Drive

3.Andalusite

#2 BREAKEVEN ANALYSIS made up for some chalky losses in a big way, when coming from far out of it to win off a 3+ month layoff beneath Bravo. This one once followed an off the L/O win with a 10% improved effort next time out, so I'm not really expecting much of a bounce today. #9 FOXHALL DRIVE finds himself at his lowest level to date, and is in receipt of one of the hottest riders around. Take note of the 1 for 2 record when breaking from the outside. #6 ANDALUSITE is another on the dropdown, but as bandages were affixed in last, I'd take a looksie on the track. OFF TURF: 2-1-4-5-8  NOTE: AS OF 2:04, DUE TO A LATE, LATE SCRATCH, THE #4 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race 5-

1.Galan's Gold

2.Shameless Lass

3.Raisedtobeawarrior

Draw a line through the most recent of the #2 GALAN'S GOLD. Comment line reads "Bumped, steadied", and it was pretty much a fait accompli after that. The triad of outings before the misfortune weren't half bad, as gal displayed some nice tactical speed, and even snagged a win across town. Rispoli back aboard today, and although he's having a rough stand, these two teamed up for the aforementioned score back in October. #1 SHAMELESS LASS won by a pole 27 days ago, and although there's not much from a sibling standpoint to report with turf runners, the poly debut was real sharp, and ya'll know that I think synthetic runners transfer nicely over to the green stuff. #7 RAISEDTOBEAWARRIOR has been God ugly in the last two, but switches back to the surface of his best effort yet, and Saez gets legged up.  OFF TURF: 9-1-5-6-7

 

Race 6-

1.Loud Cat

2.Niche

3.Gryvon

#7 LOUD CAT has hit the board in 7 of 8, and was claimed from the last at Churchill by Maker, who instantly sent him to the shelf for a couple of months. Gelding is instantly dropped in class, and as it's not the Ramsey's calling the shots, that may not be the best of signs. Nonetheless, barn is 2 for 5 with mid level dirt sprinters returning 42-84 days after the claim ( and finishing out of the money in last ). Tepid nod. #5 NICHE nearly wired cheaper in an off the turf event a month back, and Pilotti sees enough to step this one up a bit. Gelding is 2 for 7 locally, but just 1-9 otherwise, so there are some things to like. #9 GRYVON is another that excels here ( 3 for 12 ) and is 2 for 3 when breaking from the outside in one turn dirt races.

 

Race 7-

1.Inspire Courage

2.Big Yum

3.U.S.S. Boxer

As I'm typing this column on Sunday, I'm already looking forward to playing the #4 INSPIRE COURAGE. Colt had gone right up the Beyer ladder in four straight, but you can completely draw a line through the 11/14 start as the comment line says "Hammered early on" ( Don't think I've ever seen that before ). Maker saw fit to plunk down 30G that day, and love that he's not only confident enough to put this one on the turf for the first time ( no exciting sibs to report ), but that he hikes him up in class as well. Humongoid Formulator stat in play, as M.M. is a great 4 for 6 ( with all 6 hitting the board ) with new male acquisitions trying the sod for the first time in a route ( $8, $13, $24, and $8 ). Dig it. #3 BIG YUM has crashed the super in 7 of 8 and is back in the hands of DiMauro today, with whom he's done his best work. #6 U.S.S. BOXER ran an adjusted figure of 70.8 in lone turf try, and breeding suggests he's capable of better. Bandages were added in latest, so take a gander pre race.  OFF TURF: 14-6-2-4-1

 

Race 8-

1.To the Victor

2.Borseggiatore

3.Muntij

#7 TO THE VICTOR obviously wasn't diggin' the turf in last as evident by the last place finish, so if we can look past that, then we have a decent animal that is going one turn over a fast track with Lasix for the first time. Yeah, I know, the jock is as cold as a walk in cooler these days, but at 12-1 we'll take a shot. #1 BORSEGGIATORE is 2 for 7 locally and won his only time when breaking from the wood. We actually gave this horse out when on HRTV nearly two years to the day, when he outran his odds in a 3rd place finish. #2 MUNTIJ has done very little wrong thus far in his career, and it's no secret as he's been claimed in the last two. Pre-claim pilot comes back, which is always a + .

 

Race 9-

1.Lucky Kitten

2.Golden Rifle

3.Scrumpdilicious

I truly can't believe that the #2 LUCKY KITTEN will go off at the 20-1 morning line odds posted, but should that occur, we'll be all over it. Gelding is 1 for 2 here, 2 for 3 at the trip, has that "declining" boxscore that we love so much ( 21:7-3-0 ), and possesses a high rate of speed. Need more ?  Preciado is a perfect 4 for 4 with older routers that are 2nd off the claim and 3rd off the layoff ( out of the money in their last ). Those winners returned $3, $5, $12, and $13. #3 GOLDEN RIFLE tried to do it sans jockey in last, but that's illegal, and he gives it another go today. Six year old "horse" that still has all his parts ( you hang in there, buddy ! ) is another that does well under these conditions. #1 SCRUMPDILICIOUS rounds out the top three.  OFF TURF: 2-8-1-7-15(MTO)  NOTE: AS OF 12:19, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #8 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race 10-

1.Honor Earned

2.Panama Will

3.Fine Cat

#13 HONOR EARNED was nowhere to be found in first try off a 2 1/2 month break, but put forth a solid effort in the local start just prior to that when finishing 2nd at 7-1. Barn does the smart thing and drops this one down, and there's actually some precedence here, as they're 4:2-0-2 when doing such with their turf routers that are 2nd off the L/O ( both winners paid 9 bucks ). Paco moved prematurely on the #10 PANAMA WILL in initial turf try just before Christmas, but they still got the runner up dough nonetheless. Turf breeding is strong, and 12% connections more than double that rate ( 2 for 7 ) with 3rd off the L/O grass routing maidens that hit the board in their last ( $3 & $10 ). #5 FINE CAT may land a slice of Sicilian at big odds.  OFF TURF: 12-10-6-13-14  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #4 UPDRAFT, as Kieran is but 1-15 with 3rd off the bench maiden turf routers.

 

Gulfstream Stats ( Current ):        50-250  ( $406.00 )  Beatable Favorites:    7-27 ( 25.9% )Favorite's Win %: 87-250 ( 34.8% ) 


Gulfstream West Stats (Calder):   29-188  (  $198.20 ) Beatable Favorites:    4-29 ( 13.8% )Favorite's Win %: 64-188 ( 34.0% )+/-: -47.2% against a 17.0% takeout

Breeders' Cup Festival Stats:        6-31     (  $32.40 )  Beatable Favorites:     1-2  ( 50.0% )Favorite's Win %: 12-31 ( 32.2% )+/-: -47.6% against a 16.0% takeout

Keeneland Stats (2015 Final):     35-159  ( $328.60 ) Beatable Favorites:     5-15 ( 33.3% )Favorite's Win %: 59-159( 37.1% )+/-:  +3.3%  against a 16.0% takeout

Monmouth Stats  (2015 Final):     92-398  ( $619.80 ) Beatable Favorites:     8-25 ( 32.0% )Favorite's Win %:164-398( 41.2% )+/-: - 22.1% against a 17.0% takeout

Travers Day Stats(2015 Final):      3-13    ( $29.80 )  Beatable Favorite:       0-0  (   0.0% )Favorite's Win %:  6-13   ( 46.2% ) +/- : +16.5% against a 15.0% takeout

Santa Anita Stats(2015 Final):     67-290 ( $462.00 ) Beatable Favorites:   18-39 ( 46.2% ) Favorite's Win %:141-334( 42.2% ) +/-:  -20.4% against a 15.0% takeout

Belmont Stats     (2015 Final):       2-13     ($25.90 ) Beatable Favorites:      1-6  ( 16.7% ) Favorite's Win %:   2-13  ( 15.4% ) +/-:   even    against a  15.0% takeout

Pimlico Stats       (2015 Final):       1-14      ( $6.80 ) Beatable Favorites:      3-3  ( 100%  ) Favorite's Win %:   5-14  ( 35.7% ) +/-:  -75.7% against an 18.0% takeout

Churchill Stats     (2015 Final):      2-25    (  $15.40 ) Beatable Favorites:      2-4  ( 50.0% ) Favorite's Win %;   6-25  ( 24.0% ) +/-:  -69.0% against a 17.5% takeout

Keeneland Stats  (2015 Final):    39-139  ( $278.00 ) Beatable Favorites:     3-13 ( 23.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 56-139 ( 40.3% ) +/-:   even   against a 16.0% takeout

Gulfstream Stats (2015 Final): 163-848 ( $1,467.70 ) Beatable Favorites : 31-104 ( 29.8% ) Favorite's Win %: 330-848 (38.9%) +/-: -13.5% against a 17.0% takeout


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, and Travers full days (Above Churchill, Pimlico, and Belmont included in dirt and cumulative numbers):

( 2014-2015 Final ): 28-158   ( $292.80 ) Beatable Favorites: 11-29 ( 37.9% ) Favorite's Win %: 55-158  ( 34.8% )  +/-: -7.4% against a 16.9% takeout                              


Poly Tracks 2014   (All Final): 83-557     ( $789.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-67   ( 22.4% ) Favorite's Win %: 160 -576  ( 27.8% ) +/-: -29.3% against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks 2014-5 (All Final): 690-3239 ($5,633.30) Beatable Favorites : 111-372( 29.8% ) Favorite's Win%: 1212-3302 ( 36.7% ) +/-: -14.4%  against a 17.0% takeout

___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Cumulative Stats (All Final): 773-3796 ($6,422.50) Beatable Favorites : 118-381 ( 29.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 1368-3878 ( 35.3% ) +/-: -15.4% against a 17.0% takeout


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