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We close up the week today, and just want to let you know that we'll be down in Gulfstream beginning next week, so feel free to meet up and say hi ( and those of you that owe me a beer---you KNOW who you are !! ). Additionally, we'll be at the TAA ( Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance ) open house from 12-5 on Friday, followed by a Pre-Eclipse party in the paddock that night, benefiting the TAA. Looking forward to seeing ya'll there, and usually they ask for a $20 donation upon entrance, so dig deep, and don't just "say" you're gonna donate to charity, then slip a dollar in there ( you KNOW who you are too !! ).


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


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Gulfstream Park - 1/10 - First Post 12:05

 

Race 1-

1.Tizjet

2.My Dinah Lee

3.Storm Coming

#2 TIZJET gets some much needed class relief today, having already faced winners twice in her career ( and finishing 3rd in a stakes effort ). $60,000 purchase is spotted nicely here, and 8% barn is 1 for 2 with turf routers making this drop ( 14-28 days ). #4 MY DINAH LEE is another one properly placed today after a couple of decent efforts in the special weight company up in New York. Lezcano gets the nod, and Mott is 3 for 7 with this move among his female turf routers ( 36-72 days ). Those returnees paid $14, $7, and $6, and gal is a definite 1-2-3 player. #5 STORM COMING is well bred for the sod and gets Lasix for her 2nd lifetime start,  OFF TURF: 1-3-4-6-2

 

Race 2-

1.Wild Good

2.Gasolina

3.Star Charlie

#1 WILD GOOD has a decent work on display on 12/19 for today's curtain riser ( 36 2/5 from the gate ), owns a nice Tomlinson for the distance ( 361 ), and 12% outfit is 2 for 4 with firsters under these conditions ( $43 & $17 ). Slight edge in a wide open deal. #4 GASOLINA ran out of such in the debut, losing 8 lengths from the half to the finish, but in all fairness, was smacked around pretty good at the onset and deserves another chance. "Supertrainer" Loza ( 31% ) is 3 for 5 with second time starters at this level in dirt sprints ( 14-28 days ), and colt gets in light today. #7 STAR CHARLIE has been doing decently in the mornings for Plesa, who is 2 for 5 ( $7 & $41 ) with local male debuters under today's circumstances.

 

Race 3-

1.Royal Moment

2.Paddyran

3.Social Stranger

#2 ROYAL MOMENT seems to be at the ideal level today, as colt has gotten trounced in both Mdspwt starts to date, while being a dead game 2nd in the only claiming start ( 67.7 adjusted figure ). Show horse from that start won next time out ( 67 ), and Machado, 11% day to day, is 3 for 7 with 3YO maiden claiming turf routers ( $5, $13, and $7 ). #5 PADDYRAN has gone 51-53-60 in all turf starts thus far, and the class break today is duly noted, as Brendan ( 14% ) Walsh is 4 for 7 with a $4.11 ROI when having his stock drop like this off 25-65 day respites ( males ). I was gonna put this one on top, but man, the pilot is as cold as an Eskimo. #10 SOCIAL STRANGER is another sliding down the ladder today for top flight connections.  OFF TURF: 2-4-9-7-1

 

Race 4-

1.Chris and Dave

2.Woodburn

3.Frank B B

#2 CHRIS AND DAVE put it all together in a big way when procuring the diploma three weeks back, earning a number that was greater than his prior three starts---combined ! Third place finisher from that day returned to score ( with a low number ), and Russo won next time out with his only other maiden breaker ( $7 ) and is 1 for 3 on the whole with all of his mid level dirt runners in the 34-68 day range ( $88 ). #1 WOODBURN has gone 3:1-1-1 in all his dirt outings, and finds himself at his lowest level to date; logical. #6 FRANK B B is a bit spotty but gets a huge rider switch and draws the outside.

 

Race 5-

1.Bagema

2.Baby Antonella

3.Pure Ballerina

#1 BAGEMA showed some good speed from the outside in most recent when finishing a game 3rd against slightly tougher. Slides in from the 9 hole to the rail today, and gets in with a feathery 113 bug assigned. #2 BABY ANTONELLA was as flat as a pancake in latest, but gets some class relief here, and debut in the slop was pretty darn good. Ain't facing much. #4 PURE BALLERINA didn't lift a hoof when facing the starter for the first time, but 397 Tommy for the dist. will allow me to toss this one underneath to possibly spice up the exotics.  NOTE: AS OF 12:37, DUE TO THE TRACK BEING SLOPPY, THE #3 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race 6-

1.At Large

2.Buongiorno Johnny

3.Bellamy Storm

#10 AT LARGE is our play of the day. Gelding is dropped back to the level of claim two back ( a race where he was extremely wide and rallied to finish 2nd beneath today's pilot ), and the subsequent Claiming Crown flop wasn't half bad from a speed figure standpoint ( 70 Beyer ). Given he's probably much better over a fast track, we're expecting an improvement today. #5 BUONGIORNO JOHNNY drops to his lowest level today, and has a bit of hidden form with a 4:1-1-1 record from his last quartet on the dirt. The off the board effort was the most recent of that grouping, which should help in the odds department today. #6 BELLAMY STORM has barely beaten home the chase ambulance in the last two, but was obviously overmatched in those heats. Gelding beat slightly softer just before that, and has hit the board in 7 of 12 at this trip.  NOTE: AS OF 12:40, DUE TO THE TRACK BEING SLOPPY, OUR SELECTIONS ARE NOW 9-10-1.

 

Race 7-

1.Baduke

2.Papa Pig

3.No Love Included

On my first draft of this race, I shaved this 11 horse field down to 7. After that, I dove into the Formulator stats a bit, and boy, were there some grotesque trainer's stats left over. Six of the remaining seven participants has a cumulative 2-109 number under all related conditions. The lone wolf ? That would be the #5 BADUKE, trained by Barboza. He's had but four first time starters. All four were in maiden claiming dirt sprints ( like today ), and those 4 amassed a 2-2-0 record, with the winners paying $43 and $17. Need more ? Castellano gets on this $1,874 bred animal at this bottom level race ( Yet another sign of his greatness. ) #3 PAPA PIG  goes turf to dirt, cuts back, drops down, and gets a new jock. Would only need for one of those things to agree with him to move up. #9 NO LOVE INCLUDED has been doing okay in the A.M.'s and owns a 378 Tomlinson. NOTE: AS OF 12:41, DUE TO THE TRACK B EING SLOPPY, WE HAVE FLIP FLOPPED OUR 2ND AND 3RD SELECTIONS.

 

Race 8-

1.Niigon's Eclipse

2.Pulled the Goalie

3.Insta Erma

#6 NIIGON'S ECLIPSE was extremely professional when winning at first asking up in Woodbine, and although that was on the poly, the turf breeding for this one is alright. New trainer is 3 for 5 with those taking up residence in her barn for the first time, and coming back in a turf route ( $6.02 ROI ). Race just seems like a longshot will pop up. #5 PULLED THE GOALIE was in deep waters in her last two, but returns to a more palatable level today. Top flight turf jockey hops on, and 11% Vella more than doubles that rate ( 2-7 ) when stretching out his runners & going poly to turf ( 33-67 days ). #2 INSTA ERMA took full advantage of the first time Lasix up at Belmont nearly 3 months back, when breaking her maiden at odds on. Sometimes when Mott has them going good, they can stay good, so we'll leave her in the cake batter. OFF TURF: 3-1-7-11-2

 

Race 9-

1.Share the Music

2.Coming Attraction

3.Nouvelle Vague ( Ire )

#2 SHARE THE MUSIC hasn't been worse than 3rd at any point of call in her last six starts, won in her only try on the gramma, gets the hottest rider on the grounds, and Matz is 2 for 5 with his older turf routing allowance runners ( 67-134 days ) and owns a $3.20 ROI in that regards. 15-1 looking good. #6 COMING ATTRACTION has been steady if not spectacular, but on the whole Shug does real well with runners of this caliber ( 6 for 13 with the same categories just mentioned, 56-112 days, ITM last ) and it's always good to have Javy on your animal. #14 NOUVELLE VAGUE (IRE) makes North Amercan debut for Brown today, and we all know his prowess in that regards.  OFF TURF: 6-2-7-1-3  NOTE: AS OF 12:02, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #4 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.  NOTE: AS OF 4:24, DUE TO THE RACE BEING TAKEN OFF THE TURF AND ON A SLOPPY TRACK, THE #13 & THE #8 WILL BE OUR 2ND AND 3RD CHOICES RESPECTIVELY.

 

Race 10-

1.Goodboycharlie

2.Union Label

3.Newfound Gold

Watching"The Sting" whilst banging away on the keyboard tonight, and I'll tell you--it still works ! #8 GOODBOYCHARLIE has been going backwards of late, but finds himself at the lowest level of his career, and has done well at this trip over this strip; longshot play. #9 UNION LABEL has gaudy numbers and always gives a pretty fair account of himself. Take a gander at his record going 6 furlongs ( 5-16 ) compared to other distances ( 0-8 ). #11 NEWFOUND GOLD is your prototypical warhorse, with a wonderful lifetime ledger of 50:16-6-9, and as usual, this 9 year old will be in front for as long as he can. If you're near the unsaddling area after the race, how 'bout you give him a nice round of applause after the race---win, lose, or draw. Trust me, they understand.

 

Race 11-

1.Smart Mission

2.Conquest Tizfire

3.Sky My Sky

#7 SKY MY SKY was dropped out of a dam that went 1 for 2 in turf routes, and is a half to two runners that earned 614k and 859K respectively. Well bred filly is conditioned by a 17% tutor that doubles his win rate ( 2-6 ) with first time starters in mdspwt. turf routes ( $12 and $5 ). #1 CONQUEST TIZFIRE was bought at auction 16 months ago for more than four times the breeding price, and has some sparkling moves on a spaced out worktab. Casse is also 2 for 6 with the specifics just listed ( and adding 3YO/Filly/G.P ) and those winners returned a more than generous $42 and $17. Having one of the top turf riders in the country doesn't hurt, either. We'll chunk in the #5 SKY MY SKY because of the early hoof.  OFF TURF: 1-2-8-7-4  That wraps up the week here, and the next time we'll be rooting our runners home for Saratoga Bets will be trackside at Gulfstream !! See you there !

 

Gulfstream Stats ( Current ):        45-239  ( $374.20 )  Beatable Favorites:    7-27 ( 25.9% )Favorite's Win %: 83-239 ( 34.7% )


Gulfstream West Stats (Calder):   29-188  (  $198.20 ) Beatable Favorites:    4-29 ( 13.8% )Favorite's Win %: 64-188 ( 34.0% )+/-: -47.2% against a 17.0% takeout

Breeders' Cup Festival Stats:        6-31     (  $32.40 )  Beatable Favorites:     1-2  ( 50.0% )Favorite's Win %: 12-31 ( 32.2% )+/-: -47.6% against a 16.0% takeout

Keeneland Stats (2015 Final):     35-159  ( $328.60 ) Beatable Favorites:     5-15 ( 33.3% )Favorite's Win %: 59-159( 37.1% )+/-:  +3.3%  against a 16.0% takeout

Monmouth Stats  (2015 Final):     92-398  ( $619.80 ) Beatable Favorites:     8-25 ( 32.0% )Favorite's Win %:164-398( 41.2% )+/-: - 22.1% against a 17.0% takeout

Travers Day Stats(2015 Final):      3-13    ( $29.80 )  Beatable Favorite:       0-0  (   0.0% )Favorite's Win %:  6-13   ( 46.2% ) +/- : +16.5% against a 15.0% takeout

Santa Anita Stats(2015 Final):     67-290 ( $462.00 ) Beatable Favorites:   18-39 ( 46.2% ) Favorite's Win %:141-334( 42.2% ) +/-:  -20.4% against a 15.0% takeout

Belmont Stats     (2015 Final):       2-13     ($25.90 ) Beatable Favorites:      1-6  ( 16.7% ) Favorite's Win %:   2-13  ( 15.4% ) +/-:   even    against a  15.0% takeout

Pimlico Stats       (2015 Final):       1-14      ( $6.80 ) Beatable Favorites:      3-3  ( 100%  ) Favorite's Win %:   5-14  ( 35.7% ) +/-:  -75.7% against an 18.0% takeout

Churchill Stats     (2015 Final):      2-25    (  $15.40 ) Beatable Favorites:      2-4  ( 50.0% ) Favorite's Win %;   6-25  ( 24.0% ) +/-:  -69.0% against a 17.5% takeout

Keeneland Stats  (2015 Final):    39-139  ( $278.00 ) Beatable Favorites:     3-13 ( 23.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 56-139 ( 40.3% ) +/-:   even   against a 16.0% takeout

Gulfstream Stats (2015 Final): 163-848 ( $1,467.70 ) Beatable Favorites : 31-104 ( 29.8% ) Favorite's Win %: 330-848 (38.9%) +/-: -13.5% against a 17.0% takeout


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, and Travers full days (Above Churchill, Pimlico, and Belmont included in dirt and cumulative numbers):

( 2014-2015 Final ): 28-158   ( $292.80 ) Beatable Favorites: 11-29 ( 37.9% ) Favorite's Win %: 55-158  ( 34.8% )  +/-: -7.4% against a 16.9% takeout                              


Poly Tracks 2014   (All Final): 83-557     ( $789.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-67   ( 22.4% ) Favorite's Win %: 160 -576  ( 27.8% ) +/-: -29.3% against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks 2014-5 (All Final): 690-3239 ($5,633.30) Beatable Favorites : 111-372( 29.8% ) Favorite's Win%: 1212-3302 ( 36.7% ) +/-: -14.4%  against a 17.0% takeout

___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Cumulative Stats (All Final): 773-3796 ($6,422.50) Beatable Favorites : 118-381 ( 29.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 1368-3878 ( 35.3% ) +/-: -15.4% against a 17.0% takeout


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