KevinCoxItem


A three bagger on the day yesterday, but it was kinda chalky.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 11 - #9 Stockyard


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Gulfstream Park - 1/9 - 12:05 First Post

 

Race 1-

1.Forall the Marbles

2.Scoria

3.Powerful Instinct

#4 FORALL THE MARBLES will attempt to go wire to wire to complete the hat trick today, and there's very little reason to think that it can't be done. 14% Kassen is 3 for 12 w/local turf routers that won their last 15-31 days ago ( $17, $18, and $12 ) and we'll be looking for the line from the word "go". #1 SCORIA has been earning earning his frequent travelers' miles, as he's visiting his 6th different venue from as many calls to the post. Recent sojourn up north wasn't half bad, and gets a hot pilot in the stirrups today. #3 POWERFUL INSTINCT has gone right up the Beyer ladder since being claimed by Jacobsen five back, and having finished second in two straight, we'll leave in the mix today.  OFF TURF: 13-2-5-16(MTO)-1

 

Race 2-

1.Miss Niagara

2.Saint Mistress

3.Leopardshill Road

#9 MISS NIAGARA finished first in last, but was set down for floating out late in the game. Naughtiness aside, that was her best race to date, and 12% Sano is a lovely 4-10 with 3rd off the layoff maiden claiming dirt sprinters that hit the board in last. #12 SAINT MISTRESS was up the track in debut, but is halved in price, and Paco sticks around for a 14% outfit that more than doubles that rate ( 3-9 ) with maiden dirt sprinters ( 19-38 days ). #8 LEOPARDSHILL ROAD has been beset by two layoff lines after as many starts, but plummets today, and trainer/jockey combo is lethal.

 

Race 3-

1.Kitten's Star

2.Breezy's Song

3.Cassidys Valentine

#11 KITTEN'S STAR hasn't been seen since disappointing at 2-1 back in September, but overall figs are pretty good, and Delgado ( 16% day to day ) is a whopping 6 for 13 with all dirt sprinters up for sale ( 82-164 days ) and has a $6.00+ ROI in that regards. #5 BREEZY'S SONG has hit the board in 5 straight, and 14% conditioner is 4-10 with 2nd off the L/O maiden claiming dirt sprinters that finished ITM last time out ( $2.04 ROI ). #4 CASSIDYS VALENTINE cuts back and goes turf to dirt, a combo that Estevez is 3:1-1-1 with, with gals at this level.

 

Race 4-

1.Quiet Kitten

2.Hope Cross ( Ire )

3.Partisan Politics

Tight little Grade 3 here... #5 QUIET KITTEN is in the best form of her life, having won three of four, and hit the board in five straight as well. Two of three runners from last came back to win their next starts ( with lowish Beyers ), and this one has excellent numbers both at the trip and over the strip. Price is right. #7 HOPE CROSS (IRE) has finished 2nd in back to back stakes races, and is 5:2-2-0 at the distance; sensible. #2 PARTISAN POLITICS may not have dug the soft ground in most recent, but if you can forgive that ( lack of ) effort, then you're staring at some pretty solid running lines. Irad aboard can't hurt. OFF TURF: 4-2-3-6-9

 

Race 5-

1.Keyner Veloz

2.Yari

3.El Gran Joyful

#2 KEYNER VELOZ nearly made us look like heroes the day after Christmas, as he rallied resolutely to get up for 2nd at 87-1 in losing by just a half. Family connections are back at it today, and barn that normally clicks at a 13% rate is 8-24 ( 33.333% ) w/low level one turn dirt runners that hit the board in their last ( $2.40+ ROI ). #11 YARI makes just his second dirt attempt today ( in this his 33rd start ), but pedigree is okay, and Cibelli is a wonderful 7 for 13 with all runners taking this sizable of a drop and going green to brown ( $3.30+ ROI ). #8 EL GRAN JOYFUL got up in time to win this exact race on New Year's Day, and we see no reason to exclude this 6 year old "horse" ( You keep fighting the good fight, buddy !! ) in this spot. 

 

Race 6-

1.Hollywood Idol

2.Niigon's Turn

3.Dorsett

#6 HOLLYWOOD IDOL all the way. #1 NIIGON'S TURN put up a decent move at Palm Meadows for return to the turf today, and his last three starts in Canada ( all on the poly ) were the best of his career. Excellent bang for your buck with this one. I was always a Franco Harris guy, but we'll side with the #9 DORSETT for the number 3 spot. Horse hasn't won in 2 1/2 years, but last two figs up in New York weren't half bad, and bullet move on the 15th pops off the page.  OFF TURF: 2-3-1-7-10

 

Race 7-

1.Valid

2.Matrooh

3.Mshawish

Today's 7th is the Grade 3 Hal's Hope stakes, and this could just as easily be a G-2 or even higher, with 2/3rd's of the 6 pack having a legitimate shot. #4 VALID continues to surprise the hell out of us. We've had his "better days behind him" penned here on more than one occasion, and...man...look at him continue to get the job done. He's won 3 of four, amassing wins in a third of his lifetime starts, and has that perfect type of "declining" record at Hallandale Beach that we love so much ( 11:6-2-1 ). Saez now the 7th different pilot from last 11 starts, which is a bit bizarre, but he's having an excellent meet, and we'll take this warhorse today. #1 MATROOH and #3 MSHAWISH are both solid runners with gaudy numbers and top jocks. You'd probably want to include them in all rolling action.

 

Race 8-

1.Gettysburg

2.Potentially

3.Free Verse

You might have noticed that when I invoke Formulator stats here, I always list the trainer's normal win percentage first, followed by their specific win percentage with the category(s) in question. The reason being is that there should be a discernible difference between the two. For example, a 10% trainer should have a 15% stat, a 13% trainer should have a 19.5% stat, etc. In the case of a trainer like Todd Pletcher ( 25% ) sometimes it's difficult to find a 37.5% winning stat, but we may be sitting on a lulu here. #3 GETTYSBURG fought the good fight when going two turns for the first time, but eventually succumbed and finished 3rd. The great news, though, is that the Toddster has a monster angle in play here. With the following combination of categories: 3YO/Male/4 to 1 or less/Mdspwt./Dirt/GP/19-38 days/ITM in last, he is an amazing 9 for 14 ( 63% ) with a $3.00 ROI. Looking good. The #1 can POTENTIALLY improve with the transition to dirt today, as he has some nice morning moves over the stuff. #5 FREE VERSE ( the 2nd half of the uncoupled Pletcher entry ) has a monstrous Tomlinson for the dx. ( 398 ) and is wonderfully bred.

 

Race 9-

1.One More Shot

2.Frontier Ranger

3.Baby Bear's Soup

#1 ONE MORE SHOT was visually impressive up at Oldsmar when scoring at first asking 17 days ago, and although that bunch was soft, Trappe Shot is one of the hottest sires around so we don't think it was an accident. Colt was purchased for ten times the breeding price, and "Miracle Trainer" Ness ( only 28% on a daily basis ) is 3 for 6 with 2nd time starters that won at first asking ( dirt ). #6 FRONTIER RANGER has put up some decent figures on the lawn, and makes his first start on what may prove to be his preferred surface. 12% shedrow more than triples that batting average when having their routers make this surface switch ( 15-30 days ) and they own a $5.40 ROI with 'em as well. #5 BABY BEAR'S SOUP blitzed 11 others right here in an off the turf event about a month ago, and T.P. is 11-25 with recent diploma earners in optional claimers on the dirt ( $2.11 ROI ). In all honest, I can make a strong case for most of this field, so don't lend too much weight to my top choices.  NOTE: AS OF 11:08, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #3 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race 10-

1.Lochte

2.War Correspondent

3.Lukes Alley

#1 LOCHTE is back in peak form: Three in a row, 5 for 9 at G.P., 6 for 11 at this distance, 4 exacta finishes from as many starts when breaking from the wood --- grand slam time. #7 WAR CORRESPONDENT has been befallen by several layoff lines throughout his abbreviated ( at the age of 6 ) career. Never out of the money in eight trips over to the track, and this one has fired well fresh. #4 LUKES ALLEY is as game as they come with the only two misfortunes coming over a soft turf course and in the sprint debut. No knocks from this corner.  OFF TURF: 4-8-12(MTO)-9-1

 

Race 11-

1.City Flyer

2.Homespun Hero

3.Next Shares

#11 CITY FLYER has been steady, if not spectacular in three starts to date, all under a myriad of circumstances ( one turn turf, one turn poly, two turns turf ). All three runners that finished in front of him in last, won their next start ( 78,70 and 80 Beyers ) as well as the 9th place finisher ( 76 ). Two other participants from that heat finished 2nd, so it's most definitely a key race. 19% trainer Casse is 2 for 7 with turf routers at this level coming back off 61-122 day respites ( $25 and $19 ). #2 HOMESPUN HERO bested half the field in career opener, and switches to the lawn today, for which he's decently bred. Barclay does well with developing animals. #12 NEXT SHARES will be gunning early on beneath "Stone", and he'll have to, with that short run into the first turn. He'll need to back 'em down in the 2nd quarter to have enough for the end.  OFF TURF: 11-15(MTO)-3-2-8  The BEATABLE FAVORITE will be the #9 STOCKYARD as the breeding is merely comparable to several others in here, so why accept favoritism ?

 

Gulfstream Stats ( Current ):        44-228  ( $361.80 )  Beatable Favorites:    7-26 ( 26.9% )Favorite's Win %: 80-228 ( 35.1% ) 


Gulfstream West Stats (Calder):   29-188  (  $198.20 ) Beatable Favorites:    4-29 ( 13.8% )Favorite's Win %: 64-188 ( 34.0% )+/-: -47.2% against a 17.0% takeout

Breeders' Cup Festival Stats:        6-31     (  $32.40 )  Beatable Favorites:     1-2  ( 50.0% )Favorite's Win %: 12-31 ( 32.2% )+/-: -47.6% against a 16.0% takeout

Keeneland Stats (2015 Final):     35-159  ( $328.60 ) Beatable Favorites:     5-15 ( 33.3% )Favorite's Win %: 59-159( 37.1% )+/-:  +3.3%  against a 16.0% takeout

Monmouth Stats  (2015 Final):     92-398  ( $619.80 ) Beatable Favorites:     8-25 ( 32.0% )Favorite's Win %:164-398( 41.2% )+/-: - 22.1% against a 17.0% takeout

Travers Day Stats(2015 Final):      3-13    ( $29.80 )  Beatable Favorite:       0-0  (   0.0% )Favorite's Win %:  6-13   ( 46.2% ) +/- : +16.5% against a 15.0% takeout

Santa Anita Stats(2015 Final):     67-290 ( $462.00 ) Beatable Favorites:   18-39 ( 46.2% ) Favorite's Win %:141-334( 42.2% ) +/-:  -20.4% against a 15.0% takeout

Belmont Stats     (2015 Final):       2-13     ($25.90 ) Beatable Favorites:      1-6  ( 16.7% ) Favorite's Win %:   2-13  ( 15.4% ) +/-:   even    against a  15.0% takeout

Pimlico Stats       (2015 Final):       1-14      ( $6.80 ) Beatable Favorites:      3-3  ( 100%  ) Favorite's Win %:   5-14  ( 35.7% ) +/-:  -75.7% against an 18.0% takeout

Churchill Stats     (2015 Final):      2-25    (  $15.40 ) Beatable Favorites:      2-4  ( 50.0% ) Favorite's Win %;   6-25  ( 24.0% ) +/-:  -69.0% against a 17.5% takeout

Keeneland Stats  (2015 Final):    39-139  ( $278.00 ) Beatable Favorites:     3-13 ( 23.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 56-139 ( 40.3% ) +/-:   even   against a 16.0% takeout

Gulfstream Stats (2015 Final): 163-848 ( $1,467.70 ) Beatable Favorites : 31-104 ( 29.8% ) Favorite's Win %: 330-848 (38.9%) +/-: -13.5% against a 17.0% takeout


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, and Travers full days (Above Churchill, Pimlico, and Belmont included in dirt and cumulative numbers):

( 2014-2015 Final ): 28-158   ( $292.80 ) Beatable Favorites: 11-29 ( 37.9% ) Favorite's Win %: 55-158  ( 34.8% )  +/-: -7.4% against a 16.9% takeout                              


Poly Tracks 2014   (All Final): 83-557     ( $789.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-67   ( 22.4% ) Favorite's Win %: 160 -576  ( 27.8% ) +/-: -29.3% against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks 2014-5 (All Final): 690-3239 ($5,633.30) Beatable Favorites : 111-372( 29.8% ) Favorite's Win%: 1212-3302 ( 36.7% ) +/-: -14.4%  against a 17.0% takeout

___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Cumulative Stats (All Final): 773-3796 ($6,422.50) Beatable Favorites : 118-381 ( 29.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 1368-3878 ( 35.3% ) +/-: -15.4% against a 17.0% takeout


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