KevinCoxItem


Nothing exciting to report from yesterday.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 6 - Treasure


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Gulfstream Park - 1/8

 

Race 1-

1.Boss Hawg

2.Indiana Cowboy

3.Il Fratello

Was watching a M*A*S*H episode while typing away here, and who popped up in it but none other than Sorrell Booke. Who's that you ask ? Well he'd be the man who played "Boss Hogg" in 'The Dukes of Hazzard' ! Well, coincidence aside, the #8 BOSS HAWG is actually a pretty solid play in this spot. Gelding can be forgiven the turf flop, as it was over a soft turf course, and was 1 for 2 on the dirt prior to that. Kenneally claimed this one out of the win, and over the last 5 years, he's 2 for 3 w/ 2nd off the claim, 2nd off the L/O dirt runners ( $8 and $3 ). The draw is nice and he ain't facing much. #3 INDIANA COWBOY is another with an excuse in last, as perhaps he wasn't digging the green stuff, but was a perfect 2-2 at this trip over a six week span, and 11% Vivian is 2 for 8 when having his male runners make this surface switch on the cutback. #6 IL FRATELLO may clunk along for a piece of cobbler.  NOTE: AS OF 11:13, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #2 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race 2-

1.Mt. Katahdin

2.Aldrin

3.Moss Code

#3 MT. KATAHDIN ( named after the highest mountain in Maine at 5,720 feet..."Hey, aaaa....it's a well known fact, Normie boy." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mount_Katahdin ) was tardy to the party in the career opener, but if forgiveness is in your heart ( it IS a new year, after all ! ) then you'll see the excellent turf breeding behind this one that makes him deserving of another chance. Barn is cold at the stand, but they do well with 4YO 2nd time maidens returning in a turf route in less than 50 days ( $7 and $9 ). Castro sticking around helps the cause. #9 ALDRIN is a bit of a "buzz" kill for Brown, as ridgling is a looooong way away from recouping that million dollar purchase price. Half'a Fella is switched to the sod today, and although there's nothing exciting from a pedigree standpoint in the genealogy, barn won with their only first time turfer that was 2nd off the bench at this level ( $11 ). Javier was aboard this one for a troubled placing back at Keeneland in the spring. #6 MOSS CODE has done some decent things on the grass, and Zito is 2 for 3 having his older stock go brown to green at Gulfstream in a route ( 38-76 days ). They came back $19 and $13, but as Nick is coming off a rough year, I'd demand value.  OFF TURF: 10(MTO)-11(MTO)-8-3-9

 

Race 3-

1.Post Script

2.A Place to Shine

3.Olympic Smoke

#2 POST SCRIPT was a clear 2nd against slightly tougher in an off the turf event 27 days ago, and drops in class for the 3rd straight time while getting her 4th different pilot. The good news is that you know Jose is one of my faves, and this one gets MAJOR post relief, sliding in from the 10 hole to the deuce. P.S.  Speaking of major, there's a wonderful Formulator stat in play here, as Mott is 6 for 12 with 3YO maiden claiming dirt sprinters in the 18-36 day zip code ( $4.66 ROI ). #8 A PLACE TO SHINE by no means disgraced herself in the curtain riser, finishing 4th from a field of 11 over at Calder. Zerpa nearly doubles his day to day win rate with 2nd time starters under these conditions ( 50 days or less ) and has a $3.00+ ROI to go along with it. 3rd and 9th place finishers from the race mentioned both won their next time facing the starter ( 56 and 52 Beyers ). #5 OLYMPIC SMOKE showed improved speed in latest, cuts back, drops down, and gets Javy.

 

Race 4-

1.Moonshine Promise

2.Elusive Harmony

3.Roll It Gal

We're seeing this as just a two horse race. #5 MOONSHINE PROMISE just won a Claiming Crown event, and is wonderful at this trip, as attested by that overall 12:5-4-2 ledger. Mare has been alternating wins and losses for an abnormal 11 straight, but we're banking on that streak ending today. #6 ELUSIVE HARMONY was given a bit of a freshening after being eased back in November, and returns sans blinkers. Another one that digs this distance, as she's seven for eleven, and although there's speed to spare, we have to be a little leery of the Nordic jockey partaking in today's festivities. #3 ROLL IT GAL always goes off at big odds, but has hit the superfecta in 13 of 19 and may spice things up a little bit.

 

Race 5-

1.Light My Path

2.Key d'Oro

3.Puparee

#1 LIGHT MY PATH is a bit of a nibbler ( 11:1-5-1 ) but returns to the turf today, over which he handled himself nicely back in the summer. Those starts were at higher levels, and it's worth mentioning that today is his lowest to date. Saez gets the nod, and DePaulo won with his only mid level filly starter going short to long and making this surface transition ( $7 ). #2 KEY D'ORO finally got through the maiden ranks in last, and accomplished that at a trip not unlike today's. Vitali is 1-3 with maiden breakers making their next start in a two turn route ( 34-68 days ). #10 PUPAREE is steady if not spectacular but gets Castellano in the irons.  OFF TURF: 5-1-7-9-11-16(MTO)

 

Race 6-

1.Candy Sioux

2.Ginger Rush

3.Liberty Road

#8 CANDY SIOUX is our play of the day. Matz trainee missed all the candy by just a neck in debut, and did it under identical circumstances ( outside post, too ). 390 Tomlinson says that it was no fluke, and what makes THAT race so impressive is that over the last 5 years, Matz is oh-18 with first time female starters in dirt sprints, and there he goes and almost bucks the trend with this one. So now, we have a second time starter that finished ITM in last, under the same conditions, and how is he there ? Well, how does a nice and tidy 3:2-1-0 grab you ? ( $8 and $17 ) Love the "no Lasix" angle as well, as M.M. is a touch better in that area on the whole ( the sign of a true horseman ). Book it. #2 GINGER RUSH has been freshened up a bit after the turf placing, and it's reassuring that the pre-layof pilot returns. Logical. #3 LIBERTY ROAD catches a fast strip today, and that suits her much better than the goo she's been toiling on.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #7 TREASURE fits this bill as Buff Bradley is 0-7 with 3rd off the L/O maiden dirt sprinters.

 

Race 7-

1.Yarmorka

2.Blavastki

3.A Woman With Pants

#6 YARMORKA was a sharp 2nd in route attempt last time out, and miss cuts back to a sprint today. Now while some may feel that because gal was on the front end in latest, the same will happen today, I actually believe Luca will have this one coming from off the pace. Blinkers are removed and we'll give her a slight edge. #3 BLAVASTKI has speed, has hit the exacta in all three turf sprints, and has the same pre-claim jockey aboard. Deserving favorite. #1 A WOMAN WITH PANTS may save all the ground to procure the show dough.  OFF TURF: 3-5-7-8-13

 

Race 8-

1.Divine Praises

2.Pixie Devil

3.Baublette

Not really feeling the mojo this race, so tread lightly. #7 DIVINE PRAISES has been given a little freshening by Mott after the flat effort in stakes on Halloween, and this one has performed well off the bench in the past ( a race in which Lezcano was aboard ). Additionally, trainer is a fantastic 8 for 17 under these conditions and class level in the 46-92 day area ( no tag ) and has over a $3.00 ROI there as well. Hmmm.... #5 PIXIE DEVIL hasn't seen the scene in eons, but Wolfson is a crisp 3 for 7 ( positive ROI ) with those returning off sabbaticals of 400 days or more while keeping them claim protected. #4 BAUBLETTE was aesthetically pleasing in getting through the first level allowance condition at The Big A 50 days back, and fast track numbers are 64-85-90, so who knows where the ceiling is with this one.

 

Race 9-

1.Lady Dyna

2.Morethanawarning

3.Tiztalented

#11 LADY DYNA has been a model of consistency throughout her eight race career, having amassed speed figures between 70-80 along the way. Curtain riser right here on National Hangover day was a real corker, losing by only a honker to a next out winner, and we'll give this one a tepid nod. #2 MORETHANAWARNING is another "Steady Eddie", and with this one you're usually assured solid odds. #4 TIZTALENTED closes out the tri.  OFF TURF: 4-6-11-5-7

 

Race 10-

1.Johns Kitten

2.Hy Quality Prince

3.Showdown

#12 JOHNS KITTEN has improving numbers and takes the biggest drop in the game. Sensible. #13 HY QUALITY PRINCE was in the rear with the gear against tougher in last, but now catches claimers over a firm turf course for the first time, as well as getting a tremendous jockey change. #3 SHOWDOWN may actually be much better than the two running lines show. Took money in the debut versus steeper, and although he was in the back of the pack, the figure wasn't terrible, and he sorta got smacked around a bit in the subsequent start. Been given 4 months to catch his breath, and now finds himself at a more palatable level ( although the owners that bought him at auction for $230,000 can't be too tickled ). I would lend equal credence to this one in all my rollers.  OFF TURF: 15(MTO)-2-3-5-12

 

Gulfstream Stats ( Current ):        41-218  ( $348.00 )  Beatable Favorites:    7-25 ( 28.0% )Favorite's Win %: 76-218 ( 34.9% ) 


Gulfstream West Stats (Calder):   29-188  (  $198.20 ) Beatable Favorites:    4-29 ( 13.8% )Favorite's Win %: 64-188 ( 34.0% )+/-: -47.2% against a 17.0% takeout

Breeders' Cup Festival Stats:        6-31     (  $32.40 )  Beatable Favorites:     1-2  ( 50.0% )Favorite's Win %: 12-31 ( 32.2% )+/-: -47.6% against a 16.0% takeout

Keeneland Stats (2015 Final):     35-159  ( $328.60 ) Beatable Favorites:     5-15 ( 33.3% )Favorite's Win %: 59-159( 37.1% )+/-:  +3.3%  against a 16.0% takeout

Monmouth Stats  (2015 Final):     92-398  ( $619.80 ) Beatable Favorites:     8-25 ( 32.0% )Favorite's Win %:164-398( 41.2% )+/-: - 22.1% against a 17.0% takeout

Travers Day Stats(2015 Final):      3-13    ( $29.80 )  Beatable Favorite:       0-0  (   0.0% )Favorite's Win %:  6-13   ( 46.2% ) +/- : +16.5% against a 15.0% takeout

Santa Anita Stats(2015 Final):     67-290 ( $462.00 ) Beatable Favorites:   18-39 ( 46.2% ) Favorite's Win %:141-334( 42.2% ) +/-:  -20.4% against a 15.0% takeout

Belmont Stats     (2015 Final):       2-13     ($25.90 ) Beatable Favorites:      1-6  ( 16.7% ) Favorite's Win %:   2-13  ( 15.4% ) +/-:   even    against a  15.0% takeout

Pimlico Stats       (2015 Final):       1-14      ( $6.80 ) Beatable Favorites:      3-3  ( 100%  ) Favorite's Win %:   5-14  ( 35.7% ) +/-:  -75.7% against an 18.0% takeout

Churchill Stats     (2015 Final):      2-25    (  $15.40 ) Beatable Favorites:      2-4  ( 50.0% ) Favorite's Win %;   6-25  ( 24.0% ) +/-:  -69.0% against a 17.5% takeout

Keeneland Stats  (2015 Final):    39-139  ( $278.00 ) Beatable Favorites:     3-13 ( 23.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 56-139 ( 40.3% ) +/-:   even   against a 16.0% takeout

Gulfstream Stats (2015 Final): 163-848 ( $1,467.70 ) Beatable Favorites : 31-104 ( 29.8% ) Favorite's Win %: 330-848 (38.9%) +/-: -13.5% against a 17.0% takeout


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, and Travers full days (Above Churchill, Pimlico, and Belmont included in dirt and cumulative numbers):

( 2014-2015 Final ): 28-158   ( $292.80 ) Beatable Favorites: 11-29 ( 37.9% ) Favorite's Win %: 55-158  ( 34.8% )  +/-: -7.4% against a 16.9% takeout                              


Poly Tracks 2014   (All Final): 83-557     ( $789.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-67   ( 22.4% ) Favorite's Win %: 160 -576  ( 27.8% ) +/-: -29.3% against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks 2014-5 (All Final): 690-3239 ($5,633.30) Beatable Favorites : 111-372( 29.8% ) Favorite's Win%: 1212-3302 ( 36.7% ) +/-: -14.4%  against a 17.0% takeout

___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Cumulative Stats (All Final): 773-3796 ($6,422.50) Beatable Favorites : 118-381 ( 29.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 1368-3878 ( 35.3% ) +/-: -15.4% against a 17.0% takeout


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