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Another BIG day on Sunday with our 2nd consecutive grand slam ( 8 for our last 20 ) including an eight line writeup on a $21 winner in the 10th. Not too fond of today's card, so tread lightly.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 2 - #3 I Feel Great


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Gulfstream Park - 1/6

 

Race 1-

1.Chessen

2.Miracle Girl

3.Simply Magic

#2 CHESSEN has improved with each and every start, the most recent of which was a diploma earning tally when dashing on the lawn. "Recent" being the operative word there, as it happened more than 3 months ago, but Ward knows how to get 'em ready, and we're hoping the sprinters' speed carries for today's stretchout. #5 MIRACLE GIRL is back at a reasonable level after getting trounced across town on 11/28, and it's worth noting that as I write this, the winner from last came back to get up in time Saturday afternoon. #10 SIMPLY MAGIC ran a nice 3rd against the boys in last, and catches firm turf today for the first time. Post could be better, but we'll leave this one in all our rollers.  OFF TURF: 10-6-3-9-11(MTO)

 

Race 2-

1.Swagger

2.The Comish

3.Pax Orbis

#6 SWAGGER has rung up a pair pf "73's" under identical circumstances of late ( both at healthy odds ) and to be quite honest with you, I'm not quite sure where those efforts came from. Perhaps the light bulb has just come on for this one. Whatever it is, we'll ride the hot hand. #10 THE COMISH spit the bit rather readily in most recent, but in all fairness, it was his first start in over three months, and maybe routing just ain't his bag, baby. Colt was in really good form just prior to that, and Moya saw fit to plunk down 16K ( perhaps with a race like this in mind ). 3 for 6 record at the distance adds to the allure. #7 PAX ORBIS drops to his lowest level to date and has been working well for return.  OFF TURF: 7-1-4-3-5  The BEATABLE FAVORITE will be the #3 I FEEL GREAT, because I simply don't fel he as the figs to go with our top selection.

 

Race 3-

1.Super C Me

2.The Judge Chuckles

3.My Uncle Charlie

#2 SUPER C ME should positively trounce these. Colt has won 4 of 5 at varying levels and surfaces, earned some monstah figures along the way, and 27% Navarro is 43% with low level dirt sprinters that won their most recent start 13-27 days ago ( $2.44 ROI ). Additionally, he's 6:3-1-2 when incorporating races run right here into that stat. Jogola. #1 THE JUDGE CHUCKLES has hit the board in 6 of 7 at this trip, and conditioner is 1 for 2 with 2nd off the claim dirt sprinters ( $5 ). #7 MY UNCLE CHARLIE as bad as any for third.

 

Race 4-

1.Artefacto

2.Right On Ready

3.Total Accounting

#4 ARTEFACTO has been alternating losses and wins for his last septet, but don't assume the last sharp score would necessarily result in a defeat today, as he ain't facing but one true threat here. Fella has that perfect kind of "declining" overall record that I love to see ( 25:9-2-1 ) as it shows he knows where the wire is. No knocks here whatsoever, and it's his race to lose. #6 RIGHT ON READY goes for the grand slam today, and does so for his third different trainer in as many outings. Runner up from last beat similar on New Year's eve ( 64 ) and 4YO has a stellar 9:5-3-0 record at the dx. #3 TOTAL ACCOUNTING is in the 3rd start of his form cycle and is 4 for 19 going this trip and just 1-10 otherwise.

 

Race 5-

1.Two Steps Forward

2.Diploma

3.Bandera's Gold

Pretty interesting race here. #3 TWO STEPS FORWARD has been going up and down the Beyer scale, but the poor efforts may be chalked up to the synthetic north of the border. Drops here, and gets one of the best turf riders in the biz assigned. 19% Casse is 2 for 5 with this drop, this surface switch, as well as this age and gender ( $25 & $7 ). Slight edge. #6 DIPLOMA just may get it today as Kenneally is 3 for 8 with new runners in his shedrow making their first starts in turf routes ( 40-80 days ). The ROI for those animals is $5.62, and Corey is also superb on the lawn; another up for sale for the first time. #1 BANDERA'S GOLD outran his odds in the lone turf try, and Sharp is 3-8 with runners making this drop in the 21-43 day range. Wide, wide, open deal here.  OFF TURF: 5-7-1-11-13

 

Race 6-

1.Laythatpistoldown

2.Minecraft

3.Meuser

#9 LAYTHATPISTOLDOWN was up the track in the Claiming Crown event, and although he won two straight at the 25K level just before that, he's dropped to 2/3rd's of that price today. Speed has been pretty good on the turf here for those that can get to the rail in an uncontested manner, and this one may fill that bill. #5 MINECRAFT is 3 for 5 at this trip and drops to his lowest weight today with the bug assigned. Consistent sort should be no worse than second here, so you see where I'm going in all my rollers. #8 MEUSER is 2 for 13 this year, and thank goodness for the connections who are 2-61 otherwise. The last speed figure at a zillion to one was pretty good, but we'll still relegate this one to the lower rungs of the exotics.  OFF TURF: 12-5-4-13(MTO)-11(MTO)

 

Race 7-

1.Flashing Light

2.Mr. Shipman

3.Theywonderyidrink

#1 FLASHING LIGHT has been going up, up, and away in the Beyer department, culminating with a gutsy win against tougher right here a month back. The only bugaboo I have is that the front bandages were affixed for that score, so you'd be doing yourself a service to examine this one pre race. #7 MR. SHIPMAN is another one on the improve, and finished right behind our top choice in the aforementioned event. That one slides in two post positions, so all things being equal ( with the exception of soundness during warmups ) why would we expect a reversal of fortune between these two today ? #4 THEYWONDERYIDRINK is yes---another heading in the right direction---as he splattered his way to a maiden breaking performance besting 13 others on 12/9. The runner up came back to win a week ago, so this one is logical.  NOTE: AS OF 1:46, DUE TO THE TRACK BEING SLOPPY, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 1-4-6.

 

Race 8-

1.White Knuckle Ride

2.Bella Nusta

3.Pink Mama

The name of the #6, WHITE KNUCKLE RIDE ( one half of the uncoupled Plesa entry ), kinda reminds me of the car scene in"Planes, Trains, and Automobiles" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_akwHYMdbsM ) --- Aside from that, this one tries the turf for the first time, and although there's limited data from a pedigree standpoint, 18% Plesa more than doubles that rate ( 3-8, 38% ) with first time turfers that are 3rd off the layoff and going short. Those winners paid ( $15, $3, and $6 ), and filly gets in light with Gudiel aboard. #7 BELLA NUSTA blew up the tote board at $166 when going gate to wire in an off the turf event right here 25 days back, and although we're not big proponents of "missing the wedding and going to the funeral", the speed can't be ignored, and 5% outfit is 2 for 10 at Hallandale Beach with runners making this surface switch ( $60 and $27 ). #10 PINK MAMA is another that went pillar to post in latest, but that was 4 months ago, and not quite sure what to expect here, tho it is encouraging to see Lanerie hop on.  OFF TURF: 1-6-9-10-5  NOTE: AS OF 3:46, DUE TO THE TURF BEING "GOOD", THE #4 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race 9-

1.Bwana Dance

2.Divine Intrigue

3.Indian Guide

Toughest race of the day. #4 BWANA DANCE is most definitely an in and outer, but lone win came over this strip, and 15% tutor is 1-2 when stepping up his older turf stock 50% or more ( $16 ). Timid choice. #8 DIVINE INTRIGUE was snagged out of last by DiBona, and he instantly hires Castellano to ride this one. That trip was a troubled 2nd from an impossible post, and can improve today, especially when seeing that 16% barn is 4:2-1-0 first off the claim w/mid level turf routers that last raced 18-36 days back ( 4 and up ). They both paid $6, and this one should be right there. #9 INDIAN GUIDE gave up the ghost under these conditions in last, but ended up in the sharp hands of Petro afterwards. Over the last 5 years, he's 2:1-1-0 with fresh acquisitions that are 2nd off the bench and entered in a turf route today ( w/a tag ). OFF TURF: 8-9-2-11-4 

 

Race 10-

1. Flashing Cat

2.Mongolian Chrome

3.Running Cat

Another brutally tough race. #5 FLASHING CAT ships back from Tampa for this, and outfit does well with their 3rd off the L/O dirt sprinters ( 4 year olds and up ) as they're 3 for 5 with a $5.27 ROI. Meekest of choices. #8 MONGOLIAN CHROME has some ugly running lines, but only win was a one turn dirt event, and 11% trainer is 1-2 when dropping his dirt sprinters 50% or more ( $19 ). #4 RUNNING CAT gets a humongoid trainer switch today, and the first thing he does is perform the unkindest cut of all. Additionally, he's 2-4 with new runners in dirt dashes ( 76-152 days ) and they came back $6 and $64. Whenever you see me using a bunch of these Formulator stats like this, that usually means I can't get a real grasp on the race, as it's always Beyers first---Formulator second.

 

Gulfstream Stats ( Current ):        40-208  ( $330.40 )  Beatable Favorites:    5-22 ( 22.7% )Favorite's Win %: 71-208 ( 34.2% )


Gulfstream West Stats (Calder):   29-188  (  $198.20 ) Beatable Favorites:    4-29 ( 13.8% )Favorite's Win %: 64-188 ( 34.0% )+/-: -47.2% against a 17.0% takeout

Breeders' Cup Festival Stats:        6-31     (  $32.40 )  Beatable Favorites:     1-2  ( 50.0% )Favorite's Win %: 12-31 ( 32.2% )+/-: -47.6% against a 16.0% takeout

Keeneland Stats (2015 Final):     35-159  ( $328.60 ) Beatable Favorites:     5-15 ( 33.3% )Favorite's Win %: 59-159( 37.1% )+/-:  +3.3%  against a 16.0% takeout

Monmouth Stats  (2015 Final):     92-398  ( $619.80 ) Beatable Favorites:     8-25 ( 32.0% )Favorite's Win %:164-398( 41.2% )+/-: - 22.1% against a 17.0% takeout

Travers Day Stats(2015 Final):      3-13    ( $29.80 )  Beatable Favorite:       0-0  (   0.0% )Favorite's Win %:  6-13   ( 46.2% ) +/- : +16.5% against a 15.0% takeout

Santa Anita Stats(2015 Final):     67-290 ( $462.00 ) Beatable Favorites:   18-39 ( 46.2% ) Favorite's Win %:141-334( 42.2% ) +/-:  -20.4% against a 15.0% takeout

Belmont Stats     (2015 Final):       2-13     ($25.90 ) Beatable Favorites:      1-6  ( 16.7% ) Favorite's Win %:   2-13  ( 15.4% ) +/-:   even    against a  15.0% takeout

Pimlico Stats       (2015 Final):       1-14      ( $6.80 ) Beatable Favorites:      3-3  ( 100%  ) Favorite's Win %:   5-14  ( 35.7% ) +/-:  -75.7% against an 18.0% takeout

Churchill Stats     (2015 Final):      2-25    (  $15.40 ) Beatable Favorites:      2-4  ( 50.0% ) Favorite's Win %;   6-25  ( 24.0% ) +/-:  -69.0% against a 17.5% takeout

Keeneland Stats  (2015 Final):    39-139  ( $278.00 ) Beatable Favorites:     3-13 ( 23.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 56-139 ( 40.3% ) +/-:   even   against a 16.0% takeout

Gulfstream Stats (2015 Final): 163-848 ( $1,467.70 ) Beatable Favorites : 31-104 ( 29.8% ) Favorite's Win %: 330-848 (38.9%) +/-: -13.5% against a 17.0% takeout


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, and Travers full days (Above Churchill, Pimlico, and Belmont included in dirt and cumulative numbers):

( 2014-2015 Final ): 28-158   ( $292.80 ) Beatable Favorites: 11-29 ( 37.9% ) Favorite's Win %: 55-158  ( 34.8% )  +/-: -7.4% against a 16.9% takeout                              


Poly Tracks 2014   (All Final): 83-557     ( $789.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-67   ( 22.4% ) Favorite's Win %: 160 -576  ( 27.8% ) +/-: -29.3% against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks 2014-5 (All Final): 690-3239 ($5,633.30) Beatable Favorites : 111-372( 29.8% ) Favorite's Win%: 1212-3302 ( 36.7% ) +/-: -14.4%  against a 17.0% takeout

___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Cumulative Stats (All Final): 773-3796 ($6,422.50) Beatable Favorites : 118-381 ( 29.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 1368-3878 ( 35.3% ) +/-: -15.4% against a 17.0% takeout


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