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Another fine day for us here yesterday, as we "roll" right along. Aside from four chalky winners on the day, we had ( by incorporating our "unders" :

4 exacta boxes   ( $12 bets x 11 bets=$132) paying $469

5 rolling doubles ( $18 bets x 9 bets=$162 ) that came back $726

3 rolling pick 3's ( $54 bets x 8 bets=$432 ) returning $2,420

1 rolling pick 4   ( $162 bets x 2 bets=$324) taking down $1,332

1 rolling pick 5   ( $486 bets x 2 bets= $972) for $10,520 ( obviously that is based on a $2 bet, but most of us play that for .50 )

For those that are new to the column, we always emphasize tossing in a few of our "underneath" selections, as sometimes after our top choice is made, we get a little creative !

Let's end the week on a good note, shall we ?


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


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Gulfstream Park - 1/3 - 12:05 First Post

 

Race 1-

1.Call Me Crazy

2.Artie Crasher

3.Gustnado

#4 CALL ME CRAZY hasn't been seen since April Fool's Day, but we may be the fool's here if we ignore this one. Numbers were going in the right direction before being sidelined, has a win over the course, and Ritvo is 2 for 2 with turfers off 180-360 day breaks ( no tag ), and they paid $17 & $2.20. #1 ARTIE CRASHER came from way out of it to beat conditional claimers up north nearly two months ago and ended up in a new barn for his efforts. The trainer change may actually turn out to be a good thing as Serpe is 2 for 4 with new turf purchases that won their last start ( $5 & $15 ). 2nd and 4th place finishers from last both won their next time out ( 88 & 82 Beyers ) and this one is 1 for 2 right here. #3 GUSTNADO has pretty much increased his speed figures in each and every turf start and is logical once again. NOTE: AS OF 10:38, DUE TO TWO LATE SCRATCHES, THE #2 WILL BE OUR 2ND SELECTION AND THE #7 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race 2-

1.Elnath

2.Bears Reflection

3.Amaluna

Three excellent DRF Formulator stats in play, so we'll skip the superfluousness and get right to it. #3 ELNATH: 20% Vitali is 4 for 5 with first off the claim dirt sprinters at this level at G.P. ( odds 9-2 or less ) and has a $5.16 ROI in that regards. #1 BEARS REFLECTION: 16% DiBona is 2 for 4 with first of the claim dirt sprinters at this level that finished OUT of the money in their most recent ( $13 and $10 ). #8 AMALUNA: 11% Estevez more than doubles that rate ( 23% ) with dirt sprinters that won their last 2-4 weeks ago.

 

Race 3-

1.Little Snip

2.Like a Charm

3.Perfect Trace

#3 LITTLE SNIP has done little wrong in her three races to date--finishing 2nd in her first two, before getting the diploma in latest. The speed figures have steadily increased, and we like the fact that the front wraps came off for the recent score. Parra is 1 for 2 with those that broke their maidens 15-31 days ago and are up for sale in a sprint today ( $15 ). #5 LIKE A CHARM is a nibbler by nature ( 18:1-4-5 overall ledger ) but we're buoyed by the fact that Gonzalez is 3 for 8 ( $41, $13, and $5 ) w/turf sprinters up for sale ( 36-72 days ). #4 PERFECT TRACE wanted no part of the routers' distance in last and is cut back today by the new connections. 4:1-2-0 record at this trip is snazzy, and although Bocachica is a popsicle here, we'd like to think he'd be trying hard for at least the minor spoils.  OFF TURF: 3-1-4-11-12

 

Race 4-

1.Abatare

2.Mischievouscharlie

3.Bella Dixie

#7 ABATARE has been a bit of a disappointment thus far ( having been purchased for 32K but only earning back a third of that ) so Mulhall does the right thing and drops this one way down the ladder. Over the last 5 years that has proven to be a successful angle for her, as when she does it with 4YO one turn dirt runners ( 23-50 days ), she's a crisp 4:3-1-0 ( $4.75 ROI ). Nice breeze just 3 days ago. #8 MISCHIEVOUSCHARLIE hasn't done much of late, but low percentage connections are 2 for 6 with their 2nd off the L/O dirt sprinters that missed the board in their last ( $44 & $9 ). Miss likes this strip, but bandages were added in the recent try, so take a look on the track. #4 BELLA DIXIE sheds 6 pounds today, and 19% ( new ) trainer is 5-15 with all his 1 turn dirt runners.

 

Race 5-

1.Charity Reins

2.Popcorn Kitten

3.In Excessiveness

Icky race here. #3 CHARITY REINS tries the dirt for just the 2nd time today, but is better bred for it than the turf, and his turf numbers ain't half bad. Fella plummets today, and 14% barn is 3-13 when dropping their runners 50% or more. #2 POPCORN KITTEN bested half the field in first start off a little break, and 8% trainer is 2 for 9 w/2nd off the layoff one turn dirt platers at this level. #5 IN EXCESSIVENESS finds himself at his lowest level to date and is 1-2 at this dx.

 

Race 6-

1.Harlan's Bear

2.McFly

3.Pair Pair Tie

We're all over the #5 HARLAN'S BEAR in this spot. Grey gelding hung up a career best number when last seen north of the border, and makes his fist attempt on the dirt today, a surface for which I think he's much better suited. Local works since getting down here are pretty nice, and DePaulo, who bats 14% normally, knocks it out of the stadium when making this surface switch with his one turn stock ( 24-48 days ). Those winners came back $18, $8, and $4, and Saez remains on fire ( three bagger on Friday ). #6 MCFLY drops yet again today, and will be on the engine early. Grab him by the tail to get the glory. #7 PAIR PAIR TIE was smacked around a bit in last, but ran a biggie just before that and gets Javier today.

 

Race 7-

1.Du Bec

2.Cool Man Walkin

3.Clear Status

Boy, it sure is feast or famine with the #4 DU BEC, isn't it ? In six of his eight races he's finished an average of 8.8 from an 10.3 field size, being beaten by 18.4 lengths. The other two starts ? An average of 2nd from a 9.5 field size. What are we getting today ? Not quite sure, but those two races were two of the three that he's attempted going one turn on the dirt, and one of them was right here. Sixth different venue in as many outings for this well traveled gelding. Demand value. #2 COOL MAN WALKIN is halved in price today for a powerful jockey/trainer combo. #1 CLEAR STATUS is the steadiest runner in the field, and is another that is being offered for a rock bottom price for the first time. Money burner has lost five in a row at average odds of $2.76-1, so we'll be leaving underneath.

 

Race 8-

1.Twist and Turn

2.Rince Tapaigh

3.Nocturnal Q

#8 TWIST AND TURN has gone gate to wire in 3 of 4, hit the board in 7 of 8, and 27% "Supertrainer" Navarro is a whopping 40% ( 6-15 ) with low level female dirt sprinters that have won their last. As long as Corrales doesn't mistake the Pegasus statue for the finish line, this one's looking good. #11 RINCE TAPAIGH tries the dirt for the first time, but is bred nicely for the stuff and owner/trainer enters this one for 6K just 3 starts after claiming her for $10,000 more than that. On the whole, Attard ( 115 ) is 2 for 11 with low level dirt sprinters returning in less than 50 days, and miss gets in light. #10 NOCTURNAL Q is 3 for 9 at this trip ( compared to an 0-8 record otherwise ), and in a group as nondescript as this, every little bit counts.

 

Race 9-

1.Whippo

2.Shipwreck Kelly

3.How You

#2 WHIPPO has been consistent in the speed figure department, and don't be to harsh about the last effort ( "3 wide journey..." ) as he broke from the 11 hole at Aqueduct, which is pretty much a death knell there. That was most likely a "workout within a race" and Castellano ( who was aboard for the maiden breaker ) sticks around, which is encouraging. Perhaps he knows what we know, which is that 10% Bush is 5-17 ( 29% ) with 4YO mid level turf routers in the 25-49 day bracket ( $3.41 ROI ). #1 SHIPWRECK KELLY has beaten just two home in his last three, but to be perfectly honest with you, I'm surprised it's taken this long to get him back on the lawn, as it's the surface that produced his best number to date. Blinkers go on today for Sharp, who's done good things with this move in the past. #9 HOW YOU has already earned back a sizable portion of the claiming price from July, so Jorge puts him in a spot where he can win and recoup the rest. OFF TURF: 2-1-5-15(MTO)-6

 

Race 10-

1.Hail Cepheus

2.Theyallcomehome

3.Sandysprings

At first glance it may appear that the #6 HAIL CEPHUS ( Cepheus is a character in Greek mythology that later had a constellation named after him https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cepheus,_King_of_Aethiopia ) isn't much to the untrained eye, but there's some hidden potential here. Colt split the field in debut ( at a MUCH higher level ) but was given 2 1/2 months off afterwards, as sometimes the 2 year olds go through some growing pains ). The followup race wasn't much, but once again--at the special weight level, and off the bench. Forget the turf start, as perhaps that was done to get some bottom into him, as he's wheeled right back in 4 days rest. That start was on a Wednesday, and they drew for this race on Thursday, so maybe the connections had today's heat in mind all along ? well, I can tell you one thing, Gulyas ( just a single digit trainer ) is a perfect 2 for 2 with returnees of this type at this level ( $10 and $62 ), and that big winner ? Ridden by today's rider Uske, who's actually much better than her stats belie ( and pretty good over the jumps in the ring, as well! ). The more I type... #4 THEYALLCOMEHOME has good figs, drops for the 3rd straight time, and conditioner is 1-2 when removing the hood for the first time with his dirt performers ( $4 ). #7 SANDYSPRINGS as good as any for 10% of the purse.

 

Race 11-

1.Sheer Chance

2.Miss Stardust

3.Lady Lunita

Not a sexy way to close out the week with this allotment, however for rolling bet purposes... #8 SHEER CHANCE has been gone for 100 days, but may move forward in first try over the brown stuff, and Attard is 1-2 w/maiden claiming dirt runners in the 67-134 zip code. #11 MISS STARDUST had reasons to lose in her first two starts ( wet, turf, bumped, steep levels, etc. ) but has a 376 Tommy for this trip, and outfit is 1 for 3 with 2nd off the bench equines making today's surface switch ( $8 ). Bullet breeze 6 days ago duly noted. #7 LADY LUNITA merely lost by 5+ despite being tardy to the party, and we like that there's still no Lasix administered.

 

Gulfstream Stats ( Current ):        36-197  ( $293.00 )  Beatable Favorites:    5-22 ( 22.7% )Favorite's Win %: 68-197 ( 34.5% )


Gulfstream West Stats (Calder):   29-188  ( $198.20 ) Beatable Favorites:    4-29 ( 13.8% )Favorite's Win %: 64-188 ( 34.0% )+/-: -47.2% against a 17.0% takeout

Breeders' Cup Festival Stats:        6-31     (  $32.40 )  Beatable Favorites:     1-2  ( 50.0% )Favorite's Win %: 12-31  ( 32.2% )+/-: -47.6% against a 16.0% takeout

Keeneland Stats (2015 Final):     35-159  ( $328.60 ) Beatable Favorites:     5-15 ( 33.3% )Favorite's Win %: 59-159( 37.1% )+/-:  +3.3%  against a 16.0% takeout

Monmouth Stats  (2015 Final):     92-398  ( $619.80 ) Beatable Favorites:     8-25 ( 32.0% )Favorite's Win %:164-398( 41.2% )+/-: - 22.1% against a 17.0% takeout

Travers Day Stats(2015 Final):      3-13    ( $29.80 )  Beatable Favorite:       0-0  (   0.0% )Favorite's Win %:  6-13   ( 46.2% ) +/- : +16.5% against a 15.0% takeout

Santa Anita Stats(2015 Final):     67-290 ( $462.00 ) Beatable Favorites:   18-39 ( 46.2% ) Favorite's Win %:141-334( 42.2% ) +/-:  -20.4% against a 15.0% takeout

Belmont Stats     (2015 Final):       2-13     ($25.90 ) Beatable Favorites:      1-6  ( 16.7% ) Favorite's Win %:   2-13  ( 15.4% ) +/-:   even    against a  15.0% takeout

Pimlico Stats       (2015 Final):       1-14      ( $6.80 ) Beatable Favorites:      3-3  ( 100%  ) Favorite's Win %:   5-14  ( 35.7% ) +/-:  -75.7% against an 18.0% takeout

Churchill Stats     (2015 Final):      2-25    (  $15.40 ) Beatable Favorites:      2-4  ( 50.0% ) Favorite's Win %;   6-25  ( 24.0% ) +/-:  -69.0% against a 17.5% takeout

Keeneland Stats  (2015 Final):    39-139  ( $278.00 ) Beatable Favorites:     3-13 ( 23.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 56-139 ( 40.3% ) +/-:   even   against a 16.0% takeout

Gulfstream Stats (2015 Final): 163-848 ( $1,467.70 ) Beatable Favorites : 31-104 ( 29.8% ) Favorite's Win %: 330-848 (38.9%) +/-: -13.5% against a 17.0% takeout


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, and Travers full days (Above Churchill, Pimlico, and Belmont included in dirt and cumulative numbers):

( 2014-2015 Final ): 28-158   ( $292.80 ) Beatable Favorites: 11-29 ( 37.9% ) Favorite's Win %: 55-158  ( 34.8% )  +/-: -7.4% against a 16.9% takeout                              


Poly Tracks 2014   (All Final): 83-557     ( $789.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-67   ( 22.4% ) Favorite's Win %: 160 -576  ( 27.8% ) +/-: -29.3% against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks 2014-5 (All Final): 690-3239 ($5,633.30) Beatable Favorites : 111-372( 29.8% ) Favorite's Win%: 1212-3302 ( 36.7% ) +/-: -14.4%  against a 17.0% takeout

___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Cumulative Stats (All Final): 773-3796 ($6,422.50) Beatable Favorites : 118-381 ( 29.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 1368-3878 ( 35.3% ) +/-: -15.4% against a 17.0% takeout


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