KevinCoxItem


We started out 2016 on a great note, with three profitable winners ( including a $16 Best Bet ) and two brutal nose losses. We also snagged a $205 exacta box, a $224 rolling double, a $210 rolling pick 3, and both of our Beatable Favorites lost.

Let's keep it rolling !


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


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Gulfstream Park - 1/2

 

Race 1-

1.Explosive Vacation

2.Hold Harmless

3.Gioia Stella

Fuhgeddabout the debut of the #1 EXPLOSIVE VACATION --- Slop, post 11, 5 wide, broke slow. More excuses than Chip Kelly. That being said, let's look at the positive side of things. Purchased at auction for over 2 1/2 times the breeding price, Dynaformer's in the bloodlines, and there's no scary drop today. From a trainer's perspective 18% Kenneally is 3 for 7 ( 43% ) with 2nd time maiden starters that are trying the turf for the first time and finished out of the money in the opener ( $13, $6, and $9 ). The only knock is that if you've been betting Feargal, you're suddenly frugal, as he's 1-31 at this stand. #13 HOLD HARMLESS can pretty much be given the same writeup as the above, with the exception being that Shug is 2-5 with 3YO 2nd timers getting grass & Lasix for the first time ( routers, 30-80 days ). The ROI for said animals is $3.40. #5 GIOIA STELLA begins her professional career today and was dropped out of a dam that was 4-7 in turf routes ( 105K ) and is a half to a 3-10 turf router ( 296K ) and a 3-9 turf router ( 475K ). Watch out.  OFF TURF: 2-10-5-11-6

 

Race 2-

1.Naples Dream

2.Wonderful Remark

3.Cali Cat

We are totally enamored with the #7 NAPLES DREAM here. Serpe may have pulled one over on Mott, as Bill kept this one entered in an off the turf event here 24 days ago because he likes to give his runners a little bit of experience, and paid handsomely for it as the $75,000 bred animal was snagged for 35 large. Phil brings this one right back in a similar spot, and why not, as he knows his prowess with new purchases in for a tag in a turf route ( 4 for 9 with an excellent ROI ). He doubles his normal win rate when teaming up with the best rider on God's green earth in GP turf routes, and the more we type... #10 WONDERFUL REMARK may appear to have a bevy of layoff lines, but with turf runners we're a bit more forgiving. This one gets tremendous class relief today, and Ward is 2 for 3 when doing such with his 3rd off the L/O runners ( $3 & $14 ). Beyers are solid, and Hernandez heating up. #3 CALI CAT makes turf debut today and is a half to a 1 for 2 turf router as well as being trained by one who is 2 for 9 with maidens trying the sod for the first time ( $22 & $69 ) in the 16-32 day range.  OFF TURF: 6-7-4-3-11

 

Race 3-

1.Full Salute

2.Awesome Banner

3.Sheikh of Sheikhs

As I've done the last two years, I'll regale you with my Hutcheson Stakes story. 1997, it was a Grade 2 at 7 furlongs, and I was at the Sports Haven ( Ct. ) Handicapping contest. There was NO odds limit. Towards the end of the day people started stabbing. Frisk Me Now wins at 107-1 !!  Tables flipped over. Chairs flung. Chaos !! Needless to say, just about every contest now has an odds cap !  #3 FULL SALUTE looked real good in beating similar type at Calder two days after Thanksgiving, and as a matter of fact is 4:2-2-0 in ungraded stakes. The only dip into deep waters was a failed effort in a G-1, but today's level is obviously more palatable. 18% Plesa is 5 for 13 ( 38% ) with dirt sprinters that won their last start 22-44 days ago and are now entered in a stakes ( $2.40 ROI ). #2 AWESOME BANNER hasn't been seen in nearly seven months, but the debut was a corker, as not too many animals set track records right outta the box. Six runners from that heat came back to go 1-2-2-1 in their next starts, but the speed figures were reeeeeallly low. Not quite sure what to think here except to say that Gold has only had one other runner that won first time out, and returned off a long break in a dirt sprint, and that fella won at 9 bucks. #7 SHEIKH OF SHEIKS is 2-2 going one turn and obviously merits respect.

 

Race 4-

1.Lucy N Ethel

2.Ballet Diva

3.Dad's Kiddo

I love LUCY N ETHEL #5. Wire job. #1 BALLET DIVA will have no choice but to send, but appears to be 2nd best here. #3 DAD'S KIDDO has been going up, up, up, the Beyer ladder, as Kobiskie has beemn working miracles the last 43 days ( 28% compared to 18% over the last 3 years ).

 

Race 5-

1.Lira

2.Pricedtoperfection

3.Pancake

This is the 3rd of 5 stakes races today worth $100,000 and we're looking at two strong horses with POWERFUL Formulator stats. The #3 LIRA will be taking a lot of "money" today based on the fact theat she's a perfect 2 for 2 ( the recent a stakes ) and gets Javier in the irons. The stat in play is that Pletcher, under these EXACT circumstances ( at 7-2 or less ) is a near perfct 4 for 5 with a $6.80 ROI. #10 PRICEDTOPERFECTION may not have liked the yielding ground in the Breeders' Cup, but gets firm ground today, and Brown is a sensational 8 for 13 with all these particulars in play ( 3-1 or less ). #7 PANCAKE fought the good fight in latest, but understandably gave way late. Nonetheless, the speed figure was an improved one, and is a threat dropping 4 pounds today.  OFF TURF: 6-2-3-8-7

 

Race 6-

1.Geh Schnell

2.Mystic Sky

3.Inspector Lynley

At first glance, it may appear that the #2 GEH SCHNELL may not be much on the sod, but note that those were earlier in the year ( maturity points ), with front wraps ( not on in last ), troubled trips ( what do I have---a crystal ball ??? ), and without Lasix ( with which he put forth his best performance ). Been working real well, and deserves a puncher's chance. #5 MYSTIC SKY is just as well bred for the turf as the dirt he's been on, and that form ain't half bad. Gets off the rail, and you're in receipt of a much better turf jock. #14 INSPECTOR LYNLEY has a big last race figure and gets juice but is also marooned here. Meh...I s'pose we leave him in.  OFF TURF: 15(MTO)-5-7-8-14

 

Race 7-

1.Isotherm

2.Surgical Strike

3.Life Imitates Art

Grade 3 Dania Beach on tap here, and just a public service announcement that Dania Jai Alai is expected to re-open in a few weeks after nearly a year of renovations ! It's rumored to be beautiful, so come meet me there one night ! As for the race, #1 ISOTHERM got smacked around in the Breeders' Cup like 'Glass Joe' in the old "Knockout" video game, but gamely won both turf starts prior to that, and Weaver ( 15% day to day ) is a robust 38% ( 5-13 ) with 3YO runners making this surface switch in the 6-12 week area ( $4.78 ROI ). White hot Saez gets the mount. #10 SURGICAL STRIKE had increased his Beyers in four straight before getting all jammed up in the recent stakes foray. Outside post ensures a cleaner trip today. #4 LIFE IMITATES ART has never crossed the line first, but was moved up once via DQ and gives his all every time. Colt sheds 4 pounds if Rosario can pull 114.  OFF TURF: 10-1-4-2-9

 

Race 8-

1.Donation

2.Jungle Jumble

3.Megeve

Today's 8th race marks our 4,000th with Saratoga Bets. As we're usually good for about 150 words a race, that puts us in the book for having typed over 600,000 words during the last two years. No wonder I have lots of room in the tips of my gloves this winter ! As for this one, as we happen to be on the board of two worthy charities, the Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance ( thoroughbredaftercare.org ) and Old Friends at Cabin Creek ( http://www.oldfriendsequine.org/  ), it's only apropos that we side with the #13 DONATION in this spot. Gutsy Hard Spun offspring has already more than earned his $4,500 auction price, having hit the board in seven straight, and winning his last two ( the most recent of which lit up the toteboard ). Slight edge in a tight, tight field. #11 JUNGLE JUMBLE got the diploma at 2 to 5 in Calder 2 1/2 months ago, and although he figures, we're not enamored with the price. #4 MEGEVE will be rolling late and may land a share.  OFF TURF: 1-3-5-9-15(AE)

 

Race 9-

1.R Girls a Charmer

2.Saved By The Swell

3.Eva London

#2 R GIRLS A CHARMER wire to wire. #9 SAVED BY THE SWELL had a wide sojourn beneath the twin spires in curtain riser, and being a Speightstown is eligible to move up with that 398 Tommy on display. #3 EVA LONDON is conditioned by one that is rotten with newbies ( oh for 30 ) but her momma was 2-10 sprinting on the sand, and all her sibs have run a cumulative 25-100 ( 443 big ones ) at this dance. Merely a longshot play to spice up the tri.

 

Race 10-

1.Awesome Speed

2.Bullet Gone Astray

3.Picadilly Roadster

This race is named after the ever popular former Breeders' Cup Classic winner, and for a nice little biography of the animal, feel free to click right here https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mucho_Macho_Man   We're seeing this as just a two horse race. Not that they'll run 1-2, but that one of the two should most likely win. #3 AWESOME SPEED has just that---winning two straight, including the last in front running fashion. Beyer figures are positively monstrous, and 19% connections are 7:4-3-0 w/3 year old male dirt sprinters off this kind of break ( 8-1 or less ), and their ROI for those that got them the bread is $4.17. #1 BULLET GONE ASTRAY has been just mediocre of late, but had that freakish win at Mountaineer 5 months ago, and if somehow able to revert to that will be very interesting. #2 PICADILLY ROADSTER rounds out the top three.

 

Race 11-

1.Red Hot Looks

2.Dixie Runner

3.Fried Baloney

Indecipherable race to finish the day. #7 RED HOT LOOKS has speed and far outran the turf pedigree when a clear 2nd on the Cal. lawn a month ago. Not sure if that was an aberration or not, but we'll pin our hopes to him at 10-1. #9 DIXIE RUNNER was bought at Ocala 10 months ago for $550G, and owns a nice Tomlinson for this trip ( 390 ). #12 FRIED BALONEY ( dig it )is out of a dam that was 3-10 sprinting on the dirt, and although Zito's rep for beginners is bad, he's actually a decent 2-15 ( 13% ) under this EXACT set of conditions ( 6-1 to 20-1 ). Bullet work up at Palm Meadows jumps off the page, but so do some gaps in the worktab.

 

Gulfstream Stats ( Current ):        32-186  ( $277.40 )  Beatable Favorites:    5-22 ( 22.7% )Favorite's Win %: 63-186 ( 33.9% ) 


Gulfstream West Stats (Calder):   29-188  (  $198.20 ) Beatable Favorites:    4-29 ( 13.8% )Favorite's Win %: 64-188 ( 34.0% )+/-: -47.2% against a 17.0% takeout

Breeders' Cup Festival Stats:        6-31     (  $32.40 )  Beatable Favorites:     1-2  ( 50.0% )Favorite's Win %: 12-31 ( 32.2% )+/-: -47.6% against a 16.0% takeout

Keeneland Stats (2015 Final):     35-159  ( $328.60 ) Beatable Favorites:     5-15 ( 33.3% )Favorite's Win %: 59-159( 37.1% )+/-:  +3.3%  against a 16.0% takeout

Monmouth Stats  (2015 Final):     92-398  ( $619.80 ) Beatable Favorites:     8-25 ( 32.0% )Favorite's Win %:164-398( 41.2% )+/-: - 22.1% against a 17.0% takeout

Travers Day Stats(2015 Final):      3-13    ( $29.80 )  Beatable Favorite:       0-0  (   0.0% )Favorite's Win %:  6-13   ( 46.2% ) +/- : +16.5% against a 15.0% takeout

Santa Anita Stats(2015 Final):     67-290 ( $462.00 ) Beatable Favorites:   18-39 ( 46.2% ) Favorite's Win %:141-334( 42.2% ) +/-:  -20.4% against a 15.0% takeout

Belmont Stats     (2015 Final):       2-13     ($25.90 ) Beatable Favorites:      1-6  ( 16.7% ) Favorite's Win %:   2-13  ( 15.4% ) +/-:   even    against a  15.0% takeout

Pimlico Stats       (2015 Final):       1-14      ( $6.80 ) Beatable Favorites:      3-3  ( 100%  ) Favorite's Win %:   5-14  ( 35.7% ) +/-:  -75.7% against an 18.0% takeout

Churchill Stats     (2015 Final):      2-25    (  $15.40 ) Beatable Favorites:      2-4  ( 50.0% ) Favorite's Win %;   6-25  ( 24.0% ) +/-:  -69.0% against a 17.5% takeout

Keeneland Stats  (2015 Final):    39-139  ( $278.00 ) Beatable Favorites:     3-13 ( 23.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 56-139 ( 40.3% ) +/-:   even   against a 16.0% takeout

Gulfstream Stats (2015 Final): 163-848 ( $1,467.70 ) Beatable Favorites : 31-104 ( 29.8% ) Favorite's Win %: 330-848 (38.9%) +/-: -13.5% against a 17.0% takeout


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, and Travers full days (Above Churchill, Pimlico, and Belmont included in dirt and cumulative numbers):

( 2014-2015 Final ): 28-158   ( $292.80 ) Beatable Favorites: 11-29 ( 37.9% ) Favorite's Win %: 55-158  ( 34.8% )  +/-: -7.4% against a 16.9% takeout                              


Poly Tracks 2014   (All Final): 83-557     ( $789.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-67   ( 22.4% ) Favorite's Win %: 160 -576  ( 27.8% ) +/-: -29.3% against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks 2014-5 (All Final): 690-3239 ($5,633.30) Beatable Favorites : 111-372( 29.8% ) Favorite's Win%: 1212-3302 ( 36.7% ) +/-: -14.4%  against a 17.0% takeout

___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Cumulative Stats (All Final): 773-3796 ($6,422.50) Beatable Favorites : 118-381 ( 29.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 1368-3878 ( 35.3% ) +/-: -15.4% against a 17.0% takeout


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