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My New Year's Wish List ! ( In no particular order )

10 - The abolishment of horse slaughter in the United States, as well as the export of said animals for similar purpose.

9 - For all betting to be cut off two minutes to post.

8 - Elimination of two year old racing and for the Derby to be switched to 4 year olds.

7 - Brunetti to play nice and Hialeah to get some thoroughbreds.

6 - To get to The Little Brown Jug.

5 - A National Racing Commission to be formed.

4 - For Dania Jai Alai to open and have a GREAT year !

3 - Bye bye Lasix.

2 - A centralized stewards base.

1 - Not ONE horse or jockey to get hurt on the track all year. ( That's why it's a wish list, folks ! )

 

As for yesterday, we finished the year on a profitable note with two winners and a cold $388 triple. Let's start out the calendar the same way !


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 4 - #6 Crown the Kitten  Race 11 - #8 Oxidada


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Gulfstream Park - 1/1 - Happy New Year ! - 12:05 First Post ( If you're awake ! )

 

Race 1-

1.Breezy My Way

2.Hoarder

3.Demand

On 1/1, Race 1, we'll of course side with the 1 ! #1 BREEZY MY WAY has lost ground in his last quartet, but he's been battling in and amongst horses in three of them, so although we're not sure as to whether or not this one can get an uncontested lead, at the very least it'd be nice if he can comfortably settle in the pocket. Numbers have been regressing in the last quintet, but he's won from the rail before ( right here ), and we'll give the teensiest edge to this one. #5 HOARDER finished 2nd in this race 22 days back and figures right there once again. #3 DEMAND edged out the above in said event, and gets a big rider switch today.

 

Race 2-

1.Wind Warning

2.Kirkie's Dream

3.Shutter Shock

#1 WIND WARNING has burned some bread in his last three, but they were on a soft turf or a wet track. Back on firmer ground today, slides in from the 11 to the rail, and 22% Maker is 3 for 8 ( 38% ) and has a positive ROI with runners fitting these conditions ( 15-29 days ). #4 KIRKIE'S DREAM has lost ground in just about every start to date, but the speed needs to be respected, as well as the overall body of work. #5 SHUTTER SHOCK has been befallen by two layoff lines of 22 months and 7 months, so obviously he's as fragile as the Faberge Egg, however when he faces the starter he has done some good things and is dangerous at today's level.  OFF TURF: 5-1-8-6-7

 

Race 3-

1.Don's girl

2.Nena

3.Alcaldesa

#2 DON'S GIRL has gone 0-13-27-43 in her last four starts over a fast track, and the way Kobiskie is rolling, one would expect the progression to continue today. Gal was 5 lengths clear of the show horse in last, and it's her race to lose. #5 NENA received some betting support in the debut, but had a bit of a nightmarish trip, and finished in the back of the pack. Sheds 7 pounds today and is eligible to move forward a bit, #6 ALCALDESA ( "Mayoress" en espanol ) is as good ( or bad ) as any for the show dough.

 

Race 4-

1.Flash Trading

2.Oklahoma Den

3.Roll On the Navajo

#3 FLASH TRADING ( cross entered yesterday ) has the appearance of being a bit of a hanger, but goes turf to dirt today, and both times he attempted that he improved his speed figures by 20+%. Not sure he's capable of that kind of boost here, but even a 10% raise on the last race adjusted 81 makes this one extremely formidable. #5 OKLAHOMA DEN fought the good fight against slightly cheaper across town two months ago, and ended up reaping 20% of the purse that day at 10-1. Five runners that exited that race have since returned to run again, amassing a 3-1-0 overall record. Chilly jock climbing aboard tempers the enthusiasm a bit, as well as the fact that this one was a vet scratch recently. #8 ROLL ON THE NAVAJO ( also cross entered yesterday ) Beyered in the 40's twice during the late spring, hit the 60's twice during the early summer, cracked the 70's in 4 straight from 8/2-10/3, and has climbed right up to the 80's in 5 straight since then. What's not to like ? Must include in all your rollers, as who knows where the bar will be set with this one ?  OFF TURF: 4-8-3-7-11(MTO)  BEATABLE FAVORITE/3RD CHOICE: #6 CROWN THE KITTEN is eminently beatable, as Ward is oh-28 with turf routers that won their last start 48-96 days ago.

 

Race 5-

1.World Changer

2.The Sundrop kid

3.Endogeny

#5 WORLD CHANGER crushed 11 slightly cheaper foes just 12 days ago, and did it off a 65 day break in the action. Both of this ones wins are over this strip, and "Supertrainer" Ness ( who only wins at 28% ) is a mere 15-33 ( 45% ) with 2nd off the L/O low level dirt runners ( one turn ) that have won their last start. Need more ? He's 2-2 within that category with fresh purchases. #3 THE SUNDROP KID has hit the exacta in three straight at this level, and accomplished such under three different circumstances ( 1X dirt, 2X dirt, 2X dirt wet ). You have to admire when a cheap animal shows versatility, and we also like the way the numbers have improved in six straight. #4 ENDOGENY ( "development or growth from within" )  gave a nice account of himself when trying the dirt for the first time 19 days ago ( finishing 3rd from the 11 hole ) and switches to Gaffalione today.

 

Race 6-

1.America's Kitten

2.Tale of Fancy

3.Son of Oahu

#3 AMERICA'S KITTEN has been extremely consistent thus far, with 5 Beyers in the 78-91 range, but it's apparent that he needs a little something to get him over the hump. Not sure what it is, but Javier's back on, and firm turf is on the menu for a change. No worse than a 1-2-3 player, but not entirely sold on the win end. #9 TALE OF FANCY is another "Steady Eddie" and switches to Johnny V. for Florida debut. Bullet breeze up at Palm Meadows a bit of an anomaly for Barclay, so there's a chance this one's sitting on a goodie. #2 SON OF OAHU is still looking to earn back the lion's share of the $75,000 claiming price from four back, but Casse's had enough so he had the vet play a little "Barber of Saville" on him after the last start. Not sure if that'll do the trick, but for what it's worth, the place horse from the last won next time out ( 81 Beyer ). You can do a lot worse than having Saez on your horse these days.  OFF TURF: 1-8-3-4-5

 

Race 7-

1.Deterrent

2.Doctor J Dub

3.Drago's Best

Positively love the #11 DETERRENT here. He's our play of the day. After a flat effort up at The Shore, Servis saw fit to give this one a break, and rightfully so as he banked 52 large last year. The layoff was for 96 days, and let's take a gander as to how this one's done under similar respites: 83 days--A win with an 83 ; 66 days--A 2nd with an 85 ; 90 days--A win with an 84 . You get the point here. Additionally, 23% shedrow is a tremendous 38% ( 6 for 16 ) with mid level turf sprinters in the 67-134 day range ( $3.10 ROI ). Outside post isn't an issue as this 6 year old "horse" ( you RUN when you see the vet with scissors, old man ! ) won the only time breaking from there. Need more ? He's 4:3-1-0 in his last quartet when up for sale. Likey likey. #3 DR J DUB is but a neck shy of a 5 race winning streak. Obvious contender. #4 DRAGO'S BEST drops to his lowest level yet in this, his 33rd start. Numbers are good and may fire fresh in with a feather today. OFF TURF: 2-7-12(MTO)-6-1

 

Race 8-

1.So Blessed

2.Boheme de Lavi

3.Racen

Feel free to draw a thick magic marker through the most recent of the #11 SO BLESSED, as it was going two turns and she's tried that but once in her 34 prior races. What I really like about the two turf starts prior to that, was that she by far outran her turf pedigree. That being said, if you were to pro rate that to her best dirt number ( or at the very least, her last dirt number ), we have the makings of a strong play at a price. Furthermore, there's an excellent Formulator stat in play here, as Nunn is 2 for 2 with the ol' turf to dirt, two turns to one angle ( no tag ). Those winners weren't chalkies, either, as they paid $26 and $27. Gal is 1-5 when starting from the outermost post, and Rispoli is starving for a winner ever since getting booted out of the Vitali barn for some reason on Claiming Crown day. #2 BOHEME DE LAVI is an absolute MUST inclusion in all your action. Why ? Simply because he was claimed by Gonzalez 43 days ago, and the guy's been just phenomenal with new purchases going 6 furlongs or less on the dirt, as he's 5 for 8 ( $6.25 ROI ) in that regards. Oh yeah---he's won with his ONLY starter that he's stepped up 50% in a dirt sprint ( $20 ). #1 RACEN won in her only attempt on the brown stuff, and that's enough for us to toss into the Alka Seltzer today.

 

Race 9-

1.C D  Gold

2.Go Duke Go

3.Hugo Light

#4 C D GOLD barely finished the race in the first start off the claim for Joseph, and Castellano boogies the hell outta here. Don't fret, my pet, as this barn does very well with 2nd off the L/O dirt runners as well as those that are 2nd off the claim. Zayas gets legged up today, and that's okay as there's a bit of history here ( 2 for 8 in tandem ). Gelding has hit the board in half of his starts over this oval, and we'll give him one more chance. #3 GO DUKE GO is a busy little beaver, making his 2nd start in a handful of days, but Lanerie didn't really extend this one too much after the awkward onset to last. Sano's confident enough not only to wheel this one right back, but to enlist one of the meet's leading riders as well. We see it as completely wide open for the third place spot, so we'll use the #6 HUGO LIGHT because of the dropdown and the surface switch.

 

Race 10-

1.Bibby

2.Silvery Starlet

3.Sokie

#4 BIBBY has been carefully spotted by Clement ( for my bread, one of the best in the biz ) in her three starts to date. The most recent of which was a trip up to born-again Suffolk, which C.C. used to do with some regularity. The result wasn't awful, but take note that the lone win came over firm ground, which is what she'll hopefully be getting today. Bravo returns, ( he was aboard for the score ), and we see this one being perfectly placed early before making her move on the final turn. #10 SILVERY STARLET is another that's fleet afoot, but as a 6 year old with just five lifetime starts, you know there's some issues here. Anyway, when she's on the track she ain't half bad, never having lost by more than three, and we like to see Tyler on. Are we shooting ourselves in the foot using all these speedsters ? I don't know. The way the course ( and riders ) have been playing it, there's been a lot of "let a couple go out there, and we'll lay back" going on. That being said, the #7 SOKIE has a lot of "1's" in her running lines, and although the fractions weren't particularly fast, Paco will probably have this $300,000 auction purchase as close to the action as possible. OFF TURF: 10-2-12-13-4   NOTE: AS OF 12:07, DO TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #1 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race 11-

1.Jewelisa

2.Who's That Chick

3.Rockin Ronda

So, Sano claims two horses out of the same race five days ago, and wheels them right back in the same race. They both have okay form and bring in tow excellent Formulator stats, as 13% Sano nearly triples that rate ( 3-8 ) with mid level turf routers in the 3 to 7 day bracket at Gulfstream ( $2.80 ROI ). So who to chose ? Well, I can tell you who the public will be choosing, and that will be the our 2nd choice ( I will type the name in a bit, so as not to confuse anyone just glancing here. ) But we're not going that route. We're going with the #4 JEWELISA. Why ? Trainers bet. Now I'm not saying that Sano does, but I glanced at the "Jockey/Trainer combo in turf routes". With Saez, he's a miserable 1 for 27. With Jaramillo, he's a sexy 5 for 17 with a $4.05 ROI. Toss in a nice "Z" pattern in the last, add in some cheese, and we have a nice little "overlay omelet" here with the #2 WHO'S THAT CHICK picked for 2nd. #1 ROCKIN RONDA is fine for the 3 spot given the recent "Oscar Oscar Oscar" claim. ( Forgive me with the extra "Oscar's", because at the time this race will be run, I'll be in the middle of an "Odd Couple" marathon that started at midnight , and I've even enclosed a CLASSIC "Oscar, Oscar, Oscar" song ! http://www.tubechop.com/watch/7541331 ) Hope you all had fun last night , and as this is still a holiday---get home safely.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #8 OXIDADA finished out of the money in latest, and is 2nd off the layoff in a mid level turf route today, a combo that this barn is 0-13 with.

 

Gulfstream Stats ( Current ):        29-175  ( $239.00 )  Beatable Favorites:    5-20 ( 25.0% )Favorite's Win %: 61-175 ( 34.9% )


Gulfstream West Stats (Calder):   29-188  (  $198.20 ) Beatable Favorites:    4-29 ( 13.8% )Favorite's Win %: 64-188 ( 34.0% )+/-: -47.2% against a 17.0% takeout

Breeders' Cup Festival Stats:        6-31     (  $32.40 )  Beatable Favorites:     1-2  ( 50.0% )Favorite's Win %: 12-31 ( 32.2% )+/-: -47.6% against a 16.0% takeout

Keeneland Stats (2015 Final):     35-159  ( $328.60 ) Beatable Favorites:     5-15 ( 33.3% )Favorite's Win %: 59-159( 37.1% )+/-:  +3.3%  against a 16.0% takeout

Monmouth Stats  (2015 Final):     92-398  ( $619.80 ) Beatable Favorites:     8-25 ( 32.0% )Favorite's Win %:164-398( 41.2% )+/-: - 22.1% against a 17.0% takeout

Travers Day Stats(2015 Final):      3-13    ( $29.80 )  Beatable Favorite:       0-0  (   0.0% )Favorite's Win %:  6-13   ( 46.2% ) +/- : +16.5% against a 15.0% takeout

Santa Anita Stats(2015 Final):     67-290 ( $462.00 ) Beatable Favorites:   18-39 ( 46.2% ) Favorite's Win %:141-334( 42.2% ) +/-:  -20.4% against a 15.0% takeout

Belmont Stats     (2015 Final):       2-13     ($25.90 ) Beatable Favorites:      1-6  ( 16.7% ) Favorite's Win %:   2-13  ( 15.4% ) +/-:   even    against a  15.0% takeout

Pimlico Stats       (2015 Final):       1-14      ( $6.80 ) Beatable Favorites:      3-3  ( 100%  ) Favorite's Win %:   5-14  ( 35.7% ) +/-:  -75.7% against an 18.0% takeout

Churchill Stats     (2015 Final):      2-25    (  $15.40 ) Beatable Favorites:      2-4  ( 50.0% ) Favorite's Win %;   6-25  ( 24.0% ) +/-:  -69.0% against a 17.5% takeout

Keeneland Stats  (2015 Final):    39-139  ( $278.00 ) Beatable Favorites:     3-13 ( 23.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 56-139 ( 40.3% ) +/-:   even   against a 16.0% takeout

Gulfstream Stats (2015 Final): 163-848 ( $1,467.70 ) Beatable Favorites : 31-104 ( 29.8% ) Favorite's Win %: 330-848 (38.9%) +/-: -13.5% against a 17.0% takeout


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, and Travers full days (Above Churchill, Pimlico, and Belmont included in dirt and cumulative numbers):

( 2014-2015 Final ): 28-158   ( $292.80 ) Beatable Favorites: 11-29 ( 37.9% ) Favorite's Win %: 55-158  ( 34.8% )  +/-: -7.4% against a 16.9% takeout                              


Poly Tracks 2014   (All Final): 83-557     ( $789.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-67   ( 22.4% ) Favorite's Win %: 160 -576  ( 27.8% ) +/-: -29.3% against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks 2014-5 (All Final): 690-3239 ($5,633.30) Beatable Favorites : 111-372( 29.8% ) Favorite's Win%: 1212-3302 ( 36.7% ) +/-: -14.4%  against a 17.0% takeout

___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Cumulative Stats (All Final): 773-3796 ($6,422.50) Beatable Favorites : 118-381 ( 29.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 1368-3878 ( 35.3% ) +/-: -15.4% against a 17.0% takeout


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