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I want to wish everyone a VERY happy, healthy, and safe New Year's Eve. As I am wont to do on the big holidays here, I will once again impress upon you the importance of not even having ONE drink and getting behind the wheel. Not only can you lose your car if arrested, but you can lose your life, or even worse---take that of an innocent. Usually I say "If you can afford to bet a Pick 3, you can afford a cab." Well, I've decided to put my money where my mouth is this year: The first 20 people that approach me at Gulfstream this winter ( I'll be down there for 10-12 days in January, February and March, so you can always tweet me or message me here to meet up ), and hand me a taxi receipt dated 12/31 9:00 P.M. to 1/1 3:00 A.M. will get $10 from me and a firm handshake. So don't be shy, and keep that receipt in your wallet !

In regards to yesterday's deal, we had 2 chalky winners, and our "Beatable Favorite" lost, but check out the "Rolling Bet" action ( utilizing our top 3 ):

- 2 Pick three's paying $1,063 & $1,067 ( $108 bets each )

- A Pick 4 paying $6,328 ( $162 bet )

- A Pick 5 paying $43,313 ( $486 bet ) but in reality, everyone bets that for .50 cents.

- A $604 exacta box.

On to the end of the year action where we look to "roll" along...


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 2 - #4 Rejoiceful  Race 7 - #9 Dynamite Kid


I want to thank those that read my column, and have recently opened up accounts as a result of their fondness for what they see here. If you have any questions at any time, you can reach me here on Disqus, or on Twitter @brooklyncowboy1. For those who dig the scene here, and would like to be part of it, registration on our home page is easy, and if you'd like, feel free to include my name in the referral box, and let me know, so I can try and get ya' some cool swag!


 

Gulfstream Park - 12/31 - Happy ( and safe ! ) New Year's Eve !!

 

Race 1-

1.Tuneintobo

2.Dunkin Blend

3.Aethon

Starting out the week with the "Rocket Ship Triple" ---3-2-1- blastoff !! #3 TUNEINTOBO has been an in and outer for his last six starts, but finds himself at the lowest level of his career today, and is switched back to the dirt, a combo that 17% Maragh is 4-13 with ( 31% ) and at solid mutuels, too ( $3.75 ROI ). #2 DUNKIN BEND got smacked around at the onset of latest, and that may have made all the difference as he found himself 4 1/2 lengths back at the quarter---the largest deficit of his 14 races to date. Triumvirate of races prior to that were just swell, and 14% outfit wins a quarter of their starts with low level dirt sprinters in the 9-19 day range that finished out of the money in their last. #1 AETHON is 4:1-2-0 when breaking from the wood, and has missed the superfecta but once in his dozen outings. 

 

Race 2-

1.Pennypennypenny

2.Reckless Move

3.Vipera

We're gonna put in our three cents worth with the #2 PENNYPENNYPENNY here. This 5 year old mare was "reserved" in the most recent, ( as 'Oddball' used to say in 'Kelly's Heroes' http://www.tubechop.com/watch/7538790 ), and whenever we see that comment, our antennae get very excited. Gal was marooned like Mary Ann in that start, and was wider than a pre-resolution waistline on both turns. Chuck Simon doesn't see fit to blame the pilot tho, as Martinez ( who is 7:2-2-0 in tandem with this one, compared to the 10:1-0-2 record she has with others ) returns. 13% shedrow clicks at a 3-9 rate with mid level turf routers in the 2-4 week column ( $3.50+ ROI ), and the price should still be fairly solid. #5 RECKLESS MOVE won convincingly when facing cheaper in an off the turf event recently, and although this one is winless on the sod, 16% Delgado is 36% ( $3.45 ROI ) with turf routers that won their last and are racing at today's level. #1 VIPERA hung up a big number in the latest score, but although she's 3-7 locally, has never broken from the inside before, and is 0-2 from the two hole; leaving in the "unders". OFF TURF: 4-5-7-12-11  BEATABLE FAVORITE: Other than the drop, I really don't know why the #4 REJOICEFUL is the morning line chalk, as I feel the numbers come up a bit light against several in here.  NOTE: AS OF 11:46, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #9 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race 3-

1.Pisco Bliss

2.Asiknowit

3.J C Monba

#7 PISCO BLISS was extremely professional in securing the diploma as he got the job done from the 12 hole three weeks back. That was off exactly a one year layoff, and before you assume that a bounce is forthcoming, know that this trainer is 3:2-1-0 w/2nd off the L/O turfers that won their last ( $8 and $6 ). Route numbers from way back when were nice enough, and that allays any fears about the added distance as well. #10 ASIKNOWIT may wake up with the switch back to the lawn today; Panici with a double here this past Sunday. #2 J C MONBA is another on his preferred surface here, as all five turf starts have been steadily in the 64-70 day range.  OFF TURF: 3-6-7-9-8

 

Race 4-

1.Bluegrass Singer

2.Itsaknockout

3.General a Rod

Quite the allowance race we got cookin' here. We have six stakes winners ( one of them graded ), and a Kentucky Derby entrant in our midst---it's as wide open as a race can be ! #1 BLUEGRASS SINGER doesn't have real sexy running lines, but went wire to wire twice here at this trip a year ago in a 17 day span ( once beneath Castellano ), and fired off a bullet breeze of 47 1/5 up at Palm Meadows ten days back. In Javy we trust. #2 ITSAKNOCKOUT, last seen on the first Saturday in May, is another that can boast perfection going one turn over this strip, but will obviously take some action with Pletcher calling the shots, and some 'Pharoah or something in the last running line. #5 GENERAL A ROD ( the other half of the uncoupled Pletcher entry ) seemed to be doing some good things on the Derby trail last year, but like so many others before him, the wheels came off that day, and pretty much ever since ( 7:1-0-0 , compared to a perfect ITM deal before then ). Getting Todd and Johnny at an honest number, so we'll allow this one a chance to hit the board.

 

Race 5-

1.Tonite Tonite

2.Charlie's Wisdom

3.Congrats to Avie

Ugly race. #8 TONITE TONITE ran in this exact deal 20 days ago, and although he faded to finish 4th that day, it was somewhat understandable as he was compelled to cut a 22 4/5 internal fraction, and that's not quite something that cheapies such as these can normally accomplish with much success at a mile. New trainer calling the shots today ( not sure what that's all about ) but it's encouraging to see the jock return. There's not a lot of speed signed on here, and unless you've been living on Mars for the last month, you know that speed kills ( ESPECIALLY on New Year's Eve, but I'll guilt ya'll about that later ! ). Wire to wire threat if able to secure an easy lead. #9 CHARLIE'S WISDOM was claimed out of that aforementioned event by Attard, and being this gelding was even money that day, I'm sure Tino had something else in mind other than another maiden event. That being said, this one is a professional loser, and we'll accordingly place him underneath. #10 CONGRATS TO AVIE has some okay numbers and finds himself at the bottom for initial dirt try. Pinto rides the thoroughbred.

 

Race 6-

1.Grey Wizard

2.Royal Blessing

3.Nexrad

#6 GREY WIZARD had a streak of six straight Beyer increases recently halted when running an uninspiring 6th at the Aqueduct back in mid November, and I'm not quite sure why Brown had the blinkers added that day, as this grey colt was seemingly figuring it all out in an improving manner. Well the hood is yanked off today, and that's of major significance, as this move has worked at a 50% clip for the conditioner ( 7 for 14 ) with his turf routers ( $3.71 ROI ). What makes it all the more interesting is that he's 6-12 in that category with those that missed the top three in their last start, as well as being 5-10 when having J.C. aboard said runners. This could be a solid single in your rollers. ( but then again, with the streak I've been on, you may wanna hit the "all" button in every leg of your Pick 6 instead ! ) #7 ROYAL BLESSING on the other hand is adding the hood for the first time today, and six year old "horse" ( you hang in there buddy ! ) is back on his most familiar surface. Finished 2nd in this race on 4/4 ( losing by less than two ), and a HUGE plus that Lanerie hops on. #3 NEXRAD closes out the tri.  OFF TURF: 4-8-5-6-11 

 

Race 7-

1.Highly Prized ( GB )

2.Arctic Joy

3.Mollydooker

A LASIX FREE RACE !! A LASIX FREE RACE !! #8 HIGHLY PRIZED (GB) finished a decent 4th on the ol' "Figure 8 course" in England when last in action nearly 5 months ago, and makes his first start for Saville today. Trainer having a tough year, but this one is bred for better, and 13% barn is 3 for 14 ( 21% ) with turf routers making their North American debuts ( $30, $19, and $20 ) and is 4-19 ( also 21% ) when getting new runners handed to them and entering them at this trip in less than 200 days ( $3.67 ROI ). Only ONE of those 7 winners was an "overlapper", so when you have that and Javier showing interest, seems like the makings of a live runner. #5 ARCTIC JOY is the most proven turf performer in the field, and gets his 5th different pilot today in Pino, who has done well for this barn in the past. #1 MOLLYDOOKER ( English slang for a left handed person ) put up a nice number when debuting on the synthetic stuff north of the border ( in a stakes ) and quite often that can translate over to the grass. This one is a half to a 2-5 turf router ( 113k ) and was dropped from a dam that was 1-4 at this tango ( 34K ). Not hopeless.  OFF TURF: 6-11-13-12-4  BEATABLE FAVORITE: I don't feel that the #9 DYNAMITE KID has the turf pedigree to supersed our 2nd choice, so hence, we're siding against.

 

Race 8-

1.Flash Trading

2.Hy Kodiak Warrior

3.Shaken Not Stirred

#7 FLASH TRADING ( cross entered tomorrow ) is normally a fringe player, but I like the way that he can be placed anywhere during the race and usually give a good effort. Makes his first start in a one turn dirt race, and over the last 60 months, Tomlinson ( the trainer, not the handicapping tool ) is 3 for 9 with said runners at this condition ( 32-64 days ) with the winners coming back a square $12, $16, and $8. Slight edge. #10 HY KODIAK WARRIOR hasn't been seen since Hector was a pup, but is 3:0-3-0 at this dx, and has hit the board in 6 of 9 right here. 12% connections more than triple their rate with "new" returnees of this type ( $3.40 ROI ). #9 SHAKEN NOT STIRRED ( I was always a Roger Moore guy when it came to Bond ) is your obvious, deserving favorite. No knocks.

 

Race 9-

1.Chatt Hills

2.Hows My Gold

3.Standard Deal

#11 CHATT HILLS goes for the hat trick today, and it's well within reach. Miss loves this trip, and has 2 exacta finishes from 3 Gulfstream starts. All kinds of sensible. #6 HOWS MY GOLD nearly blew up the tote board when a clear 2nd in first start for Moya, and gal must be kicking the walls down because he wheels her right back off short rest. 5:1-4-0 local ledger stands out. #12 STANDARD DEAL has snuck into the super in 7 straight, and it's always good using ice cold jocks in the lower rungs of the exotics, as they seem to try harder for minor spoils.

 

Race 10-

1.Multipotentialite ( AE )

2.Blutarsky

3.It'z My Valentino

We finish the year with as wide open a race as you'll find, and I wouldn't begrudge one to skip this heat and start lining up the party favors. On that note, I want to reiterate my offer at the top of today's column--PLEASE "Be careful out there" ( as Sgt. Estherhause used to say in 'Hill Street Blues' https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jmg86CRBBtw  ) if you're imbibing some spirits tonight, and even if you have all the intentions of being completely lucid, remember, somewhere out there is a professional lush who is saying "I know my way home---who cares---I'm driving." THAT'S the person you have to steer clear of ---even if it IS your ride. ( I've gotten out of a car or two in my day. ) You may not be able to be your brother's ( or sister's ) keeper, but you can most definitely be your own.  Let's keep the synopsis short and sweet here: #16 MULTIPOTENTIALITE (AE) is from a 10% barn that is 4-15 ( 27% ) with firsters on the sod, and the prices were fantastic at $35, $20, $36, and $13. #2 BLUTARSKY ( of "Animal House" fame ) had a troubled first turf start, but the breeding is there, and P.P. won with her only runner ( $23 ) first of the claim in a turf route ( 1-2 month layoff ). #4 IT'Z MY VALENTINO closes out our tri, card, and year. Thank you all so very much for following us all year. Hope to continue to beat the takeout for you in 2016, and have some laughs along the way.  OFF TURF: 1-5-12-11-2  NOTE: AS OF 11:47, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #3 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Gulfstream Stats ( Current ):        27-164  ( $217.40 )  Beatable Favorites:    4-18 ( 22.2% )Favorite's Win %: 60-164 ( 36.5% )


Gulfstream West Stats (Calder):   29-188  (  $198.20 ) Beatable Favorites:    4-29 ( 13.8% )Favorite's Win %: 64-188 ( 34.0% )+/-: -47.2% against a 17.0% takeout

Breeders' Cup Festival Stats:        6-31     (  $32.40 )  Beatable Favorites:     1-2  ( 50.0% )Favorite's Win %: 12-31 ( 32.2% )+/-: -47.6% against a 16.0% takeout

Keeneland Stats (2015 Final):     35-159  ( $328.60 ) Beatable Favorites:     5-15 ( 33.3% )Favorite's Win %: 59-159( 37.1% )+/-:  +3.3%  against a 16.0% takeout

Monmouth Stats  (2015 Final):     92-398  ( $619.80 ) Beatable Favorites:     8-25 ( 32.0% )Favorite's Win %:164-398( 41.2% )+/-: - 22.1% against a 17.0% takeout

Travers Day Stats(2015 Final):      3-13    ( $29.80 )  Beatable Favorite:       0-0  (   0.0% )Favorite's Win %:  6-13   ( 46.2% ) +/- : +16.5% against a 15.0% takeout

Santa Anita Stats(2015 Final):     67-290 ( $462.00 ) Beatable Favorites:   18-39 ( 46.2% ) Favorite's Win %:141-334( 42.2% ) +/-:  -20.4% against a 15.0% takeout

Belmont Stats     (2015 Final):       2-13     ($25.90 ) Beatable Favorites:      1-6  ( 16.7% ) Favorite's Win %:   2-13  ( 15.4% ) +/-:   even    against a  15.0% takeout

Pimlico Stats       (2015 Final):       1-14      ( $6.80 ) Beatable Favorites:      3-3  ( 100%  ) Favorite's Win %:   5-14  ( 35.7% ) +/-:  -75.7% against an 18.0% takeout

Churchill Stats     (2015 Final):      2-25    (  $15.40 ) Beatable Favorites:      2-4  ( 50.0% ) Favorite's Win %;   6-25  ( 24.0% ) +/-:  -69.0% against a 17.5% takeout

Keeneland Stats  (2015 Final):    39-139  ( $278.00 ) Beatable Favorites:     3-13 ( 23.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 56-139 ( 40.3% ) +/-:   even   against a 16.0% takeout

Gulfstream Stats (2015 Final): 163-848 ( $1,467.70 ) Beatable Favorites : 31-104 ( 29.8% ) Favorite's Win %: 330-848 (38.9%) +/-: -13.5% against a 17.0% takeout


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, and Travers full days (Above Churchill, Pimlico, and Belmont included in dirt and cumulative numbers):

( 2014-2015 Final ): 28-158   ( $292.80 ) Beatable Favorites: 11-29 ( 37.9% ) Favorite's Win %: 55-158  ( 34.8% )  +/-: -7.4% against a 16.9% takeout                              


Poly Tracks 2014   (All Final): 83-557     ( $789.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-67   ( 22.4% ) Favorite's Win %: 160 -576  ( 27.8% ) +/-: -29.3% against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks 2014-5 (All Final): 690-3239 ($5,633.30) Beatable Favorites : 111-372( 29.8% ) Favorite's Win%: 1212-3302 ( 36.7% ) +/-: -14.4%  against a 17.0% takeout

___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Cumulative Stats (All Final): 773-3796 ($6,422.50) Beatable Favorites : 118-381 ( 29.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 1368-3878 ( 35.3% ) +/-: -15.4% against a 17.0% takeout


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