KevinCoxItem


Back on track yesterday with a profitable 11:3-1-1 record on the day, a successful "Beatable Favorite", a "Rolling" late Pk. 5 ( 3x3x3x3x3=$324 for a deuce, or less if you want ) that came back $6,022 ( and a few hundred in consos ), and a rolling Late Pk. 4 for $1,345 ( $162 Bet ). We ended up snagging the Pick 6 for $3,600 which keeps us off the bread line for a while as we look to grind out another good day today.

Do you know what the key to the day was ? Being on the short end of a nice little 1-15 streak heading into the 4th race yesterday, I received a text from none other than loyal reader, King Larry Abner himself, who said ( and I quote ) "Will you please pick a winner !" Larry must've poured salt on slugs as a child, or perhaps fried ants under a magnifying glass, because as he KNOWS the pride I take in my prose, and that such a challenge would result in such a resoundingly positive end to the day ( which it did ! ). Even though those picks were written DAYS in advance, I WILLED the winners across the line from that point onward !   "I fear all we have done is awaken a sleeping giant and fill him with a terrible resolve." --- Admiral Isoroku Yamamoto, upon learning of the success of the attack on Pearl Harbor.

You woke me up Lawrence !

Great new book just in time for the holidays put out by C.J. Johnsen of Kentucky Downs entitled "Ride to Win", an inside look into the jockey's craft. It explores everything that goes into winning race from a rider's perspective, to how they land mounts and plan strategy, and what they're thinking during the race ! It's a great read, and check out the link right here !

http://jockeytalk360.com/?product=ride-to-win-an-inside-look-at-the-jockeys-craft-by-bob-fortus-and-gary-west


Today's Beatable Favorite(s):


I want to thank those that read my column, and have recently opened up accounts as a result of their fondness for what they see here. If you have any questions at any time, you can reach me here on Disqus, or on Twitter @brooklyncowboy1. For those who dig the scene here, and would like to be part of it, registration on our home page is easy, and if you'd like, feel free to include my name in the referral box, and let me know, so I can try and get ya' some cool swag!


 

Gulfstream Park - 12/20

 

Race 1-

1.Reign It In

2.Flash Song

3.Phoebe Moon

#1 REIGN IT IN was up the track in most recent, but that wasn't too much of a surprise and can be discounted as this one is now 0-4 when breaking from the rail in turf events ( she's a plodder ) and is 0-3 over soft ground. That's a collective 0-6 ( one race fit both categories ) whereas she's 2-16 in other turf events. That being said, the subsequent start was an adjusted 70 on the lawn, and being this gal is about 12% worse on the dirt, a pro-rated 61-62 puts this mare right in the thick of things at 8-1. #6 FLASH SONG drops in class, gets a rider upgrade, is 6-12 at Gulfstream an 4-7 at this trip. Obvious factor. #7 PHOEBE MOON has run evenly in her last three starts that she actually finished, and is as good as any for the show bread.

 

Race 2-

1.Frankie's Trigger

2.Supersecret

3.Mascherato

#1 FRANKIE'S TRIGGER is another animal that can be forgiven the most recent, as he has run miserably both times he's been on the goo, so by drawing a big 'ol fat Sharpie through the ( lack of ) effort you're staring at a nice body of work dashing over the green stuff. The hike in class isn't a concern as weight comes off with a decent bug named, and we're hoping this one becomes a pocket rocket. #6 SUPERSECRET is a nibbler by nature, but likes the palm trees here so the #2 spot seems about right. #4 MASCHERATO enters today a couple'a ounces lighter since his last start ( ouch ), drops to his bottom level to date, and although the turf pedigree for this first time lawn runner isn't stellar, it's not terrible either; pre-layoff pilot returns.  OFF TURF: 4-6-7-5-8

 

Race 3-

1.First Girl

2.Golden Mila

3.Little Caton

#1 FIRST GIRL is one of the many Canadian imports down here this winter, and some of them have run quite well thus far. This one is substantially better bred for the dirt than the poly she's been running on up north, and when you factor in the early speed along with the addition of Paco, there'll most likely be a head turning Linda Blair exhibition at the top of the stretch. Give us the wire !! #2 GOLDEN MILA got smacked around a bit at the onset of last, but rallied gamely to finish a clear third against slightly cheaper that day--sensible once again. #3 LITTLE CATON may have been aided by a speed favoring sloppy track 29 days ago, but the hefty figure is too strong to ignore, so we'll toss into the cookie dough for your basic 1-2-3 triple.

 

Race 4-

1.You Are Flatter

2.Elsenordeloscielos

3.Theyallcomehome

#10 YOU ARE FLATTER was eased in the debut, but undergoes a consortium of changes today: Two turns to one, adds blinkers, gets a new jock, and takes the biggest drop in the game. 383 Tommy says we'll give this one just ONE more chance, especially when you see that there were a couple of nice morning moves prior to that start, and perhaps he bled through Lasix. #5 ELSENORDELOSCIELOS has run second three times from 5 starts to date and drops a peg or two today; all kinds of logical. #6 THEYALLCOMEHOME is extremely dangerous here as he attempts dirt for the first time and has had two rough trips to begin the career. Drops a notch.

 

Race 5-

1.Rue de Rivoli

2.Pretty and Sweet ( Ire )

3.Early Snow

By Michael Matz standards, the return off a 9+ month layoff by the #3 RUE DE RIVOLI was pretty darn good ( and by the way, for those not in the know, Matz was not only an Olympic equestrian, but he also saved the lives of 4 children when a plane he was on, United 232, crashed, killing 111 people  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_R._Matz . This may be old news, but should never be forgotten---yet alone to toss in the fact that he trained Barbaro, for crying out loud ) as the filly showed a little bit of early foot before finishing an okay 5th from a field of 12. Penultimate start yielded an adjusted Beyer of an 80,8, and anything CLOSE to that today gives this one a big shot at even bigger odds. #4 PRETTY AND SWEET (IRE) gets a positive jockey switch off a strong ( albeit troubled ) placing versus similar at CRC on Nov. 27. Owns 4 trifecta placings from as many local starts and 12-1 M.L. offering is pretty juicy. #1 EARLY SNOW has been beset by layoff lines, but faces slightly weaker today in drawing the rail for Albertrani and getting bobblehead. OFF TURF: 3-6-4-10-8

 

Race 6-

1.Megatoni

2.Adopt a Kitten

3.Sassy Spirit

4th of 5 maiden races on the day is a turf route, and we'll give the slightest of nods to the #7 MEGATONI. Do yourself a solid, and draw a #2 pencil through all the dirt, or one turn races of this one --- go ahead, do it ! What do you have ? Well what you're looking at is an improving collection of turf route numbers, and one of the finest lawn jockeys in the land sticking around, despite the recent dirt debacle. Not strong---but eminently playable. #4 ADOPT A KITTEN ( "Meow, baby." ) is another that needs "White Out" pasted across the first and last starts to her career. Once you do that, you're staring at some pretty good form at substantially higher levels. Watch out. #12 SASSY SPIRIT is marooned yet again, but drops one more time and can snag a share.  OFF TURF: 8-9-2-10-15(AE)

 

Race 7-

1.Galardonado

2.Still Krz

3.Boyfriend's Back

#1 GALARDOADO just missed under identical circumstances 23 days ago, slides inward, gets Zayas in the irons, and seems uber solid. #9 STILL KRZ will be on the engine from the time they spring open the latches and gets Saez in the saddle, who had a grand slam here on Friday. Note that the $14,233 bred gelding who has earned over $56K is now in for 30 large, so you have to assume this one will be cranked for today's effort. #5 BOYFRIEND'S BACK won convincingly a bit over 5 weeks ago at a level just below this, but as the Beyer produced that day was a lifetime best, we're not completely convinced that a repeat effort is within reach today, so we'll toss beneath.

 

Race 8-

1.Hold Harmless ( AE )

2.Tizjet

3.Proud Lady

#15 HOLD HARMLESS (AE) was a clear 3rd in an off the turf event in a strung field at the Big A on 11/11, and although the Beyer from that day wasn't very exciting, the monstrous turf breeding say that a big effort today could be in the works should he draw in. #4 TIZJET lost the front wraps in first start for Rodriguez, and that's always a positive. Gets post relief now, as she slides in 10 slots, and keep in mind that this one is already stakes placed. #7 PROUD LADY has lost by just 2 and 4 in both turf starts to date, and the numbers for those races were okay, I've always liked hungry riders trying hard for the minor spoils.  OFF TURF: 9-6-10-4-13(MTO)  NOTE: AS OF 2:27, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #11 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race 9-

1.World Changer

2.Super Zapper

3.Expected Meeting

It's only a matter of time until the powerful tandem of Joseph and Castellano rear their ugly head at this stand, and in the case of #2 WORLD CHANGER we have a colt plummeting to his lowest level to date with a decent record over this strip ( 9:1-2-1 on a fast track ). Blechhh choice in a yucky race. #4 SUPER ZAPPER has pretty much been improving with each and every start ( including a win and a runner up finish right here ) and I like the fact that he can be right on the pace whether it's a dash or at a distance. #7 EXPECTED MEETING has an ugly overall record but is eligible to wake up in his first foray over a fast dirt strip.

 

Race 10-

1.Modern Tale

2.Quite the Issue

3.Charity Reins

#9 MODERN TALE nearly went pillar to post across town back in early November, and although the fractions were slow that day, the turf was playing that way and we'll pin our hopes to another front end run in a race devoid of much early speed. #2 QUITE THE ISSUE fought tooth and nail in his first start off a 3 1/2 month break to just miss by a neck against tougher, and he's a threat here off a nice little drop. #1 CHARITY REINS closes out the tri---and our week---with a snug rail position to procure a "suck up " 3rd.  OFF TURF: 2-1-4-8-13(MTO)

 

Gulfstream Stats ( Current ):        17-102  ( $137.80 )  Beatable Favorites:    2-9  ( 22.2% )Favorite's Win %: 38-102 ( 37.7% ) ( After Friday )


Gulfstream West Stats (Calder):   29-188  (  $198.20 ) Beatable Favorites:    4-29 ( 13.8% )Favorite's Win %: 64-188 ( 34.0% )+/-: -47.2% against a 17.0% takeout

Breeders' Cup Festival Stats:        6-31     (  $32.40 )  Beatable Favorites:     1-2  ( 50.0% )Favorite's Win %: 12-31 ( 32.2% )+/-: -47.6% against a 16.0% takeout

Keeneland Stats (2015 Final):     35-159  ( $328.60 ) Beatable Favorites:     5-15 ( 33.3% )Favorite's Win %: 59-159( 37.1% )+/-:  +3.3%  against a 16.0% takeout

Monmouth Stats  (2015 Final):     92-398  ( $619.80 ) Beatable Favorites:     8-25 ( 32.0% )Favorite's Win %:164-398( 41.2% )+/-: - 22.1% against a 17.0% takeout

Travers Day Stats(2015 Final):      3-13    ( $29.80 )  Beatable Favorite:       0-0  (   0.0% )Favorite's Win %:  6-13   ( 46.2% ) +/- : +16.5% against a 15.0% takeout

Santa Anita Stats(2015 Final):     67-290 ( $462.00 ) Beatable Favorites:   18-39 ( 46.2% ) Favorite's Win %:141-334( 42.2% ) +/-:  -20.4% against a 15.0% takeout

Belmont Stats     (2015 Final):       2-13     ($25.90 ) Beatable Favorites:      1-6  ( 16.7% ) Favorite's Win %:   2-13  ( 15.4% ) +/-:   even    against a  15.0% takeout

Pimlico Stats       (2015 Final):       1-14      ( $6.80 ) Beatable Favorites:      3-3  ( 100%  ) Favorite's Win %:   5-14  ( 35.7% ) +/-:  -75.7% against an 18.0% takeout

Churchill Stats     (2015 Final):      2-25    (  $15.40 ) Beatable Favorites:      2-4  ( 50.0% ) Favorite's Win %;   6-25  ( 24.0% ) +/-:  -69.0% against a 17.5% takeout

Keeneland Stats  (2015 Final):    39-139  ( $278.00 ) Beatable Favorites:     3-13 ( 23.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 56-139 ( 40.3% ) +/-:   even   against a 16.0% takeout

Gulfstream Stats (2015 Final): 163-848 ( $1,467.70 ) Beatable Favorites : 31-104 ( 29.8% ) Favorite's Win %: 330-848 (38.9%) +/-: -13.5% against a 17.0% takeout


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, and Travers full days (Above Churchill, Pimlico, and Belmont included in dirt and cumulative numbers):

( 2014-2015 Final ): 28-158   ( $292.80 ) Beatable Favorites: 11-29 ( 37.9% ) Favorite's Win %: 55-158  ( 34.8% )  +/-: -7.4% against a 16.9% takeout                              


Poly Tracks 2014   (All Final): 83-557     ( $789.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-67   ( 22.4% ) Favorite's Win %: 160 -576  ( 27.8% ) +/-: -29.3% against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks 2014-5 (All Final): 690-3239 ($5,633.30) Beatable Favorites : 111-372( 29.8% ) Favorite's Win%: 1212-3302 ( 36.7% ) +/-: -14.4%  against a 17.0% takeout

___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Cumulative Stats (All Final): 773-3796 ($6,422.50) Beatable Favorites : 118-381 ( 29.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 1368-3878 ( 35.3% ) +/-: -15.4% against a 17.0% takeout


GP2016bio