KevinCoxItem

Just one for us yesterday as we continue to look for our groove. Jai Alai will be calling soon enough !

Great new book just in time for the holidays put out by C.J. Johnsen of Kentucky Downs entitled "Ride to Win", an inside look into the jockey's craft. It explores everything that goes into winning race from a rider's perspective, to how they land mounts and plan strategy, and what they're thinking during the race ! It's a great read, and check out the link right here !

http://jockeytalk360.com/?product=ride-to-win-an-inside-look-at-the-jockeys-craft-by-bob-fortus-and-gary-west 


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 11 - #3 Osalia ( Ire )


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Gulfstream Park - 12/19 - First Post 12:05

 

Race 1-

1.Pure Ballerina

2.Foxy Gator

3.Spitfire Wind

If you set your alarm early for today's first post, feel free to hit the snooze button. Ooofa. However, for your pick 5 purposes... #5 PURE BALLERINA has a 398 Tomlinson and is out of a dam who's offspring have won 13 of 96 races sprinting on the dirt. Want more ? I can't give it to you, as this is the trainer's first start in over 5 1/2 years ( 0-10 lifetime ), and the pilot has entered the gate just once at this stand. #8 FOXY GATOR was a mite bottled up in the debut, but rallied resolutely to get the show dough in losing by just a length. Filly has a much better slot today and is logical vs. this group. #1 SPITFIRE WIND drew the rail in career opener, and that worked against her as she broke tardily and ended up splitting the field at 4-1. Fared much better going 2 turns across town when a clear 2nd in a strung out field, and ended up in a new barn for her efforts. Zayas will need to navigate a clear journey today at this tricky 7/8th's distance.

 

Race 2-

1.A Woman With Pants

2.Morgan Falls

3.Sum Roar

#1 A WOMAN WITH PANTS has hung up back to back solid efforts at this trip, but they came at a level half of this one, so right off the bat you need to tread a little bit lightly. Speed figures are too solid to ignore, though, so we'll give this one a slight edge, especially with 5 exacta finishes from 11 starts at this trip. Ditto for the #10 MORGAN FALLS ( with the exception being an 8:3-0-3 ledger at the dx. ). #2 SUM ROAR "Lugged out" in most recent, and that's always a disconcerting comment to see, but outing prior to that was a win that yielded an adjusted speed figure of 71.7, so if you are inclined to toss into your rollers, feel free, but I'd take a gander during the on track warmup before making any individual race bets.  OFF TURF: 2-3-6-12-7

 

Race 3-

1.Paddyran ( AE )

2.English Mahaveer

3.Fu Manchu

#14 PADDYRAN (AE) will need some help drawing into the body of the race today, but should that occur he'll be taking the biggest drop in the game off a strong last race figure. Frequent traveler makes his fifth different start from as many venues, and can pose a solid threat should Lynch be able to dive over and save some ground early on. #6 ENGLISH MAHAVEER showed good speed in last but stopped on a dime at the halfway point, which was likely a result of bleeding, as Lasix is added today. Colt is another one on the plunge here and sheds 7 pounds with a decent bug named. #5 FU MANCHU was a game 2nd in front of a next out winner on the Churchill dirt 23 days ago, and switches back to his preferred surface today. Gets two major additions today--Javy and the hood, and may be sitting on a good one in the 2nd off the layoff attempt. OFF TURF: 5-2-7-15(AE)-6  NOTE: AS OF 11:39, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #7 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race 4-

1.Stallwalkin' Dude

2.X Y Jet

3.Grande Shores

Today's 4th is the Grade 3 Mr. Prospector for 100 big ones, and for a history of one of the best sires ever, feel free to take a gander here https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mr._Prospector . #3 STALLWALKIN' DUDE makes his 18th start this annum, and his 31st over the last two years, so right off the bat, we give a tip of the hat. Jacobsen snagged this one for $16,000 15 months ago and has done "miracles" with the 'Dude since then, winning 9 starts ( 3 of them stakes ) and banking over $650K. Gelding is 5 for 12 at the trip and we simply can't get past this one. #5 X Y JET has oodles of speed, but is a bit of a nibbler locally ( 6:0-4-1 ), so we'll keep beneath in this spot as he shoots for the hat trick. #4 GRANDE SHORES, a 7 year old "horse" that still has all his parts ( hang in there, buddy ! ) has earned every bit of a pension when the time comes, as he makes his 50th start today and has already amassed 30 exacta finishes. His records both at the trip and right here are exceptional as well, and could be flying late if there's a protracted speed duel up front. 

 

Race 5-

1.Cash Munnings

2.Extravagant Kid

3.Eklipsado

#6 CASH MUNNINGS was forced out at the start in the career opener, and that was pretty much that. Drops here, and is much better bred for the dirt, especially when you take note of that bullet breeze just three days before the debut. Corey riding real well here, and I wouldn't be surprised to see this one go straight to the top. #1 EXTRAVAGANT KID has been doing pretty well on the sod thus far, crashing the exacta in the last two, and is probably equally suited for the dirt. Logical, sure, but it's always been difficult for me to use Leyva on top with any kind of confidence. #3 EKLIPSADO has a couple of decent morning moves and owns a 385 Tommy for today's distance; February bred has a maturity edge over most in here.

 

Race 6-

1.Potentially

2.Dark Gemini ( IRE )

3.Regal Kitten

#1 POTENTIALLY is a New York bred facing open foes, but slides in from the 12 hole to the wood, is 2nd time Lasix, has a bullet in the holster, and Beyers are comparable, if not better than most in here. Slight edge. #6 DARK GEMINI (IRE) has been steadily climbing up the Beyer ladder, and today is first time Lasix for Weaver. Must include in all your rollers. #5 REGAL KITTEN finished 3rd behind a next out winner in last, and rounds out the tri.  OFF TURF: 12-4-9-5-14(MTO)

 

Race 7-

1.El Botas

2.Gombey Dancer

3.Loud Cat

#1 EL BOTAS recently split the field in a Claiming Crown event, and now finds himself back at a more suitable level, as well as being entered on a ( hopefully ) fast track. The latter is of much significance, as this one is 6:4-1-1 over such a surface as well as being 5:3-1-0 at this trip on the whole. Although this one has been coming from off the pace in those turf heats, given the way the track's been playing this week I wouldn't be surprised to see the pilot sending from the start. After displaying increasing speed figures in three straight, the #3 GOMBEY DANCER has substantially regressed in his last two, and is now dropped down by DiBona in order to re-instill some confidence in the gelding. Ledger at the distance is crisp, but keep in mind that front wraps were added in the most recent, so you should most definitely take a peek pre-race. #10 LOUD CAT has been a popular item at the claim box of late, having been snagged out of the last two ( and oddly dropped in price after each ). Winner from last came back to do it again next time out ( 90 Beyer ), and Joel will look to hustle this one over to a good striking position early on. NOTE: AS OF 11:42, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #6 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race 8-

1.Mo Power

2.Street Grey

3.Avast Matey

Extremely tight maiden race here, but we're gonna give a tepid nod to the #11 MO POWER here based on the nice draw, highest Tomlinson in the field ( 371 ), an auction price 13 times higher than the breeding price, sweet works, and the fact Pletcher has been through the roof already at this stand. #10 STREET GREY is also regally bred with good morning moves, and for rolling bet purposes, I would lend as much credence to this one as the above. #1 AVAST MATEY hasn't been in action since the 5h of July, but was nearly lit up the tote board that day, when losing by only a neck at 45-1. Corey takes over today, and he's been in excellent form for over 3 months now.

 

Race 9-

1.Solemn Tribute

2.War Story

3.A Lot

Today's 9th is the Tropical Park Derby, named after the defunct racetrack ( 1931-1972 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Park_Race_Track ), and it's a nice, tight turf event. In #4 SOLEMN TRIBUTE's career, he has run two races in the 20's, then two races in the 50's, two races in the 80's, and now two races in the 90's. Obviously, this one is figuring it out quick fast, and we LOVE improving animals at generous odds. #5 WAR STORY is the class of the field, and although he's never set foot on the green stuff, we'll give a shot due to the positive trainers' switch. #11 A LOT has hit the board in 9 of 10 turf starts, but is 0-2 when breaking from the 8 hole on out. Jose won aboard this colt nearly 15 months ago, and I'll be leaving him in all my bets--vertical and horizontal.  OFF TURF: 12-3-5-2-9

 

Race 10-

1.Abounding Legacy

2.Ghareeb

3.Nauset Beach

#5 ABOUNDING LEGACY came along evenly to close out the superfecta in his initial turf attempt at Calder on All Hallows Eve, but is now switched back to what will probably end up being his preferred surface today. 3YO likes this strip ( 6:2-2-1 ), and Nicks off to a hot start. Mild choice. #8 GHAREEB has been a bit of an in and outer, and although he hasn't been in action in over 9 months, had a tremendous win over the strip earlier in the year, and s noted here before, Weaver can have them ready fresh. #1 NAUSET BEACH is 1 for 2 going one turn, and that lone score happened right here in the spring ( adj. 87.6 ); also 1-2 when breaking from the wood ( the win was in a different race ).

 

Race 11-

1.Angel Vision ( Ire ) ( AE )

2.Iromea ( Ire )

3.Osaila ( Ire )

The nightcap is the lady's version of the 9th, and we'll go with the "Erin Go Bragh" triple... #14 ANGEL VISION (IRE) (AE) will need two defections to make it to the track today, but we'll be diggin' her should that occur. North American debut on 11/1 was pretty good considering she basically stepped off the boat to a 3rd place finish sans Lasix ( which is added today ). Caraballo has done just fine by us down here over the last few years, and note that she's done well in some full fields back in England. With the exception of the first N.A. start, #2 IROMEA (IRE) has been there every step of the way ( 6:2-3-1 ) and that 428 turf Tommy says to me that the sky still may be the limit for this one. BEATABLE FAVORITE/2ND CHOICE: #3 OSALIA ( IRE ) is a multiple graded stakes winner who finished a nice third behind Lady Eli in last year's Breeders' Cup, and although she makes sense in a number of ways, you should know that over that last 5 years, 25% Pletcher is just half that ( 2-16 ) when adding juice to turf routers that have already run. Leaving in the unders.  OFF TURF: 13(AE)-11-5-1-2  NOTE: AS OF 2:29, DUE TO A LATE SCRTCH THE #11 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Gulfstream Stats ( Current ):        17-102  ( $137.80 )  Beatable Favorites:    2-9  ( 22.2% )Favorite's Win %: 38-102 ( 37.7% ) ( After Friday )


Gulfstream West Stats (Calder):   29-188  (  $198.20 ) Beatable Favorites:    4-29 ( 13.8% )Favorite's Win %: 64-188 ( 34.0% )+/-: -47.2% against a 17.0% takeout

Breeders' Cup Festival Stats:        6-31     (  $32.40 )  Beatable Favorites:     1-2  ( 50.0% )Favorite's Win %: 12-31 ( 32.2% )+/-: -47.6% against a 16.0% takeout

Keeneland Stats (2015 Final):     35-159  ( $328.60 ) Beatable Favorites:     5-15 ( 33.3% )Favorite's Win %: 59-159( 37.1% )+/-:  +3.3%  against a 16.0% takeout

Monmouth Stats  (2015 Final):     92-398  ( $619.80 ) Beatable Favorites:     8-25 ( 32.0% )Favorite's Win %:164-398( 41.2% )+/-: - 22.1% against a 17.0% takeout

Travers Day Stats(2015 Final):      3-13    ( $29.80 )  Beatable Favorite:       0-0  (   0.0% )Favorite's Win %:  6-13   ( 46.2% ) +/- : +16.5% against a 15.0% takeout

Santa Anita Stats(2015 Final):     67-290 ( $462.00 ) Beatable Favorites:   18-39 ( 46.2% ) Favorite's Win %:141-334( 42.2% ) +/-:  -20.4% against a 15.0% takeout

Belmont Stats     (2015 Final):       2-13     ($25.90 ) Beatable Favorites:      1-6  ( 16.7% ) Favorite's Win %:   2-13  ( 15.4% ) +/-:   even    against a  15.0% takeout

Pimlico Stats       (2015 Final):       1-14      ( $6.80 ) Beatable Favorites:      3-3  ( 100%  ) Favorite's Win %:   5-14  ( 35.7% ) +/-:  -75.7% against an 18.0% takeout

Churchill Stats     (2015 Final):      2-25    (  $15.40 ) Beatable Favorites:      2-4  ( 50.0% ) Favorite's Win %;   6-25  ( 24.0% ) +/-:  -69.0% against a 17.5% takeout

Keeneland Stats  (2015 Final):    39-139  ( $278.00 ) Beatable Favorites:     3-13 ( 23.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 56-139 ( 40.3% ) +/-:   even   against a 16.0% takeout

Gulfstream Stats (2015 Final): 163-848 ( $1,467.70 ) Beatable Favorites : 31-104 ( 29.8% ) Favorite's Win %: 330-848 (38.9%) +/-: -13.5% against a 17.0% takeout


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, and Travers full days (Above Churchill, Pimlico, and Belmont included in dirt and cumulative numbers):

( 2014-2015 Final ): 28-158   ( $292.80 ) Beatable Favorites: 11-29 ( 37.9% ) Favorite's Win %: 55-158  ( 34.8% )  +/-: -7.4% against a 16.9% takeout                              


Poly Tracks 2014   (All Final): 83-557     ( $789.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-67   ( 22.4% ) Favorite's Win %: 160 -576  ( 27.8% ) +/-: -29.3% against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks 2014-5 (All Final): 690-3239 ($5,633.30) Beatable Favorites : 111-372( 29.8% ) Favorite's Win%: 1212-3302 ( 36.7% ) +/-: -14.4%  against a 17.0% takeout

___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Cumulative Stats (All Final): 773-3796 ($6,422.50) Beatable Favorites : 118-381 ( 29.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 1368-3878 ( 35.3% ) +/-: -15.4% against a 17.0% takeout


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