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So so day yesterday as we win with our two standout plays of the day, and our "Beatable Favorite" loses.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


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Monmouth Park - 9/13

 

Race 1-

1.Farmer Jones

2.No Brody No

3.A Sixties Tune

#5 FARMER JONES was as flat as a pancake when last in action on Independence Day, and has been given some time off since then. Gelding returns for his lowest level yet, and is back at The Shore, where he's 2 for 11 in comparison to being 0-21 elsewhere. The blinkers are now removed, and 16% Perkins is a snazzy 3-8 when doing such with his runners returning in 90 days or less. #1 NO BRODY NO is in the best form of his career, having procured the diploma two starts ago, then following that up with a low level claiming win. The numbers from those heats came back solid enough, and 27% Navarro is a delovely 4 for 9 ( $2.59 ROI ) when stepping up his new acquisitions more than 50% in dirt routes ( 8 of those 9 hit the board ). #2 A SIXTIES TUNE is another one peaking these days, and has speed to boot. Trainer with limited runners is 3:1-1-0 with dirt starters 25 days or less.

 

Race 2-

1.Time Walker

2.Stay Determined

3.Tio Kanki

How do you come up with a horse that has barely beaten one home in his last two starts ? Well, with a little DRF Formulator help, of course. In the case of the #3 TIME WALKER, you would most definitely have to dig deep to come up with something positive, and here it is : 13% Louis Linder is a tremendous 6 for 12 ( 50% ) when dropping his dirt sprinters more than 50%, and has a $4.51 ROI to go along with it. There was a bullet work prior to the last flopola, so hmmmm.....  #7 STAY DETERMINED has just been mid pack in his last two, but the 10% outfit is 7 for 26 ( 27% ) w/low level dirt claimers coming off 10-20 day respites ( $2.69 ROI ). #1 TIO KANINI as bad as any to close things out here.

 

Race 3-

1.Chilton

2.Seeker

3.Allstar

#2 CHILTON  ( "Dr. Chilton, I presume." ) beat only one home in most recent, but that was against stiffer competition, and now drops down to a level below the one claimed from two back. Hot bug in the saddle today, and Jamie "Greatest Trainer In The History Of God's Creation" Ness, is 3 for 5 when dropping his 2nd off the claim dirt runners 50% or more ( 10-70 days ) with a $2.36 ROI. All of those runners hit the board. #4 SEEKER has been steadily climbing the Beyer ladder of late, and gets a big jockey upgrade here; logical. #7 ALLSTAR slides down to a lifetime low today.  NOTE: AS OF 11:09, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #1A WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race 4-

1.Lady's Kan

2.Variety of Colors

3.Secretive Lady

#2 LADY'S KAN didn't show much in her debut, but hey, it was just her debut after all, and it was an off the turfer at that. This gal is bred extremely well for the green stuff, and gets an important rider switch today as well. Take note of the bullet gate work before the career opener, so if she wasn't really persevered with that day, then maybe the double digit offering here is worth a stab. Oh yeah---3 runners from that heat have returned to run---2 winners and a second. The more I type...  #8 VARIETY OF COLORS is a sensible chalk here, what with those gaudy speed figures, game runner up finish, bullet work, and nice draw. A must include on all your bets, vertical and horizontal. #3 SECRETIVE LADY spit the bit rather readily going long in latest, but deserves another shot on today's cutback.  OFF TURF: 3-8-6-2-9

 

Race 5-

1.Slow Heart Break

2.Sassy Defender

3.Video Mov

#3 SLOW HEART BREAK hasn't faced the starter in more than 7 months, however the last fast track sprint ( not including the start just before the break ) yielded an adjusted fig. of 67, which would work here. I'm encouraged that Bocachica takes the call for this low percentage outfit, and note that this one's only trip to the winners' circle happened at Monmouth. Longshot play, fer sure, so take a gander in the paddock.  #2 SASSY DEFENDER hasn't dome much of late to get the pulse racing, but there are some sneaky good numbers interspersed in the last 9 running lines, as the three best of them have come going one turn on the dirt. #1 VIDEO MOV completes your anything but ordinary 3-2-1 triple based on that dropdown, nice early speed, and 2:1-0-1 record at this trip.  NOTE: AS OF 11:10, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #6 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race 6-

1.Dothraki Warrior

2.Sandman Cometh

3.Beau Jangles

#7 DOTHRAKI WARRIOR turned in the best of his quartet of dirt performances in start 3 weeks ago, and if you were to pro rate that ( like I would ) to his best turf number, than the adjusted number of 63.2 is quite debonaire. #4 SANDMAN COMETH, ( cross entered tomorrow at Delaware ) appears to be figuring this game out a bit. The numbers are heading in the right direction, and the turf effort in last ( albeit a sprint ) was much better than his first try. Gelding loses 4 pounds today ( my hero after a summer in Saratoga ! ) and should sit a nice trip. #2 BEAU JANGLES showed improved speed when facing similar last time out, but petered out a bit late, settling for 4th. Grey guy was flattered a bit when the runner up and third place finisher returned to finish 1st and 3rd in a Philadelphia start next time out, and check earner figures to hit the board once again.  OFF TURF: 8-4-2-7-1

 

Race 7-

1.Cloudy River

2.High Limit

3.Jersey Joe C

"I'm flying high over Tupelo, Mississippi, with America's hottest band ... and we're all about to die." ( 'Almost Famous' ) Well, not quite. But I am, however, penning today's tome whilst on a Kentucky bound flight 30,000 feet in the air. ( If I go oh-for-10, I'll blame it on oxygen deprivation. ) Anyhoo, do yourself a favor and spraypaint some graffiti through the last of the #1 CLOUDY RIVER, as the 3YO apparently wanted about as much to do with grass as I do lima beans. The grouping of starts just before that, tho, were both fine and dandy, and LOVE the fact that this game colt is 3:1-2-0 when breaking from the wood. #10 HIGH LIMIT proved that patience is a virtue, when winning in his first attempt off over a 15 month layoff. Obviously a bounce is always possible in these kinds of situations, but we're compelled to leave in the mix. #5 JERSEY JOE C has been going up and down the Beyer ladder since setting foot on the track last September, so of course today should be improved, right ? If only it were that simple. Nonetheless, he won at a level a smidgen lower than this two back, so a solid try is most definitely feasible.

 

Race 8-

1.Poor Etiquette

2.Make Your Point

3.Huamantla

#6 POOR ETIQUETTE closed like a freight train in the Laurel sprint, covering the last 3/8th's in 16 2/5th's. Normally I detest betting closing sprinters stretching out to routes, but this one is an honest 2-12 @ the dx. on the sod ( and 0-12 at other turf distances ). May be more forwardly placed today with that sprinters' speed in her. #4 MAKE YOUR POINT drops to a lifetime low today, and in a field as nondescript as this, that can make a difference. For the most part #1 HUAMANTLA gives you your money's worth, although the last has me puzzled a bit. 2 for 4 at Mth., and gets yet another pilot change.

 

Race 9-

1.Bustin Out

2.Wind Racer

3.Boheme de Lavi

I SPOKE TOO SOON !!! Shortly after my movie reference above, the pilot announced "Ummmm....we're running low on fuel and won't be able to land at Nashville. We'll be making a pit stop st Louisville !!!"  Running low ? Fuel ? NURSE !! 2 1/2 hours later I finally land, only to find out that Kentucky Downs has ( understandably ) cancelled their Saturday card due to soft going. "Screw it Dude---let's go bowling." ...... As for today's 9th race, it's #2 BUSTIN OUT gate to wire. #6 WIND RACER could cause a few headaches for our top choice early on, as he has comparable fractions to Bustin, but that big effort 21 days ago came off over a half a year break, and as it was substantially faster than what she ran in the past, we'll lean towards a bit of a regression. #4 BOHEME DE LAVI has gone back to back, but takes a substantial step up the ladder today, and may have to settle for some crumbs.  NOTE: AS OF 11:12, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #5 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race 10-

1.Malekith

2.Heavy Hitter

3.Full Pads

#8 MALEKITH ran her best route race to date in the last start, and did it while having a change of tactics employed, in being sent to the front. This is a sprint, however, and what I'm gonna do is convert that route "apple" into a sprint "orange" and utilize the best adjusted dash figure of 50.6. That number gives this one more than a fighting chance against our secondary selection, and at double the odds. #3 HEAVY HITTER is a clear 1-2 player, but Jacobsen trainee has set a Tiki Torch to bettors bread in her 7 starts, losing all by an average of $2.85-1. Keep in all rollers, tho. #6 FULL PADS ( 0-18 ) for the 3rd spot by default.

 

Monmouth Stats  ( Current ):     85-358  ( $561.20 ) Beatable Favorites:     7-21 ( 33.3% ) Favorite's Win %:151-358 ( 42.2% ) 


Travers Day Stats(2015 Final):      3-13    ( $29.80 )  Beatable Favorite:       0-0   (   0.0% ) Favorite's Win %:  6-13   ( 46.2% ) +/- : +16.5% against a 15.0% takeout

Santa Anita Stats(2015 Final):     67-290 ( $462.00 ) Beatable Favorites:   18-39 ( 46.2% ) Favorite's Win %:141-334( 42.2% ) +/-:  -20.4% against a 15.0% takeout

Belmont Stats     (2015 Final):       2-13     ($25.90 ) Beatable Favorites:      1-6  ( 16.7% ) Favorite's Win %:   2-13  ( 15.4% ) +/-:   even    against a  15.0% takeout

Pimlico Stats       (2015 Final):       1-14      ( $6.80 ) Beatable Favorites:      3-3  ( 100%  ) Favorite's Win %:   5-14  ( 35.7% ) +/-:  -75.7% against an 18.0% takeout

Churchill Stats     (2015 Final):      2-25    (  $15.40 ) Beatable Favorites:      2-4  ( 50.0% ) Favorite's Win %;   6-25  ( 24.0% ) +/-:  -69.0% against a 17.5% takeout

Keeneland Stats  (2015 Final):    39-139  ( $278.00 ) Beatable Favorites:     3-13 ( 23.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 56-139 ( 40.3% ) +/-:   even   against a 16.0% takeout

Gulfstream Stats (2015 Final): 163-848 ( $1,467.70 ) Beatable Favorites : 31-104 ( 29.8% ) Favorite's Win %: 330-848 (38.9%) +/-: -13.5% against a 17.0% takeout


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, and Travers full days (Above Churchill, Pimlico, and Belmont included in dirt and cumulative numbers):

( 2014-2015 Final ): 22-127   ( $260.40 ) Beatable Favorites: 10-27 ( 37.0% ) Favorite's Win %: 43-127  ( 33.9% )  +/-: +2.5% against a 16.9% takeout                              


Poly Tracks 2014   (All Final): 83-557     ( $789.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-67   ( 22.4% ) Favorite's Win %: 160 -576  ( 27.8% ) +/-: -29.3% against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks 2014-5 (All Final): 524-2463 ($4,454.90) Beatable Favorites : 89-272 ( 32.7% ) Favorite's Win%: 909- 2526 ( 36.0% ) +/-: -9.6%  against a 17.0% takeout


Cumulative Stats (All Final): 607-3020 ($5,244.10) Beatable Favorites : 104-339 ( 30.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 1069-3102 ( 34.5% ) +/-: -12.8% against a 16.5% takeout


 MonmouthParkBio