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Just an FYI that I will be at Kentucky Downs on Saturday giving a seminar at 11:30, as well as one for Old Friends on Wednesday to be followed by another one at Kentucky Downs that same day.

For information on their handicapping contest this Saturday, just go to this link  http://www.kentuckydowns.com/live-racing/handicapping-contest/

NOTE: AS OF 10:34 P.M. CST FRIDAY, LIVE RACING FOR KENTUCKY DOWNS ON SATURDAY HAS BEEN CANCELLED AND SWITCHED TO MONDAY, BUT THE CONTEST IS STILL ON WITH SUBSTITUTE RACES.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 5 - #9 RMILLIONDOLLARBABY


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Monmouth Park - 9/12

 

Race 1-

1.Hazy Daisy

2.Banana Anna

3.Market Tales

#4 HAZY DAISY has some nice early zip and takes the biggest drop in the game today, a move that Farro is 2 for 2 with when doing it in conjunction with a 9-18 day layoff in a Monmouth dirt sprint ( $19 & $7 ). The hot bug stays on, and we're hoping this miss catches a flyer. #6 BANANA ANNA stepped up her Beyer game by about 30% in last, despite getting smacked around a bit at the onset. Blinkers are removed today, and the barn is 1-1 when doing that with horses that have already run ( $4 ). #2 MARKET TALES didn't show much in last, but adjusted number from two starts ago ( 46.3, incorporating the class drop ) would make this one dangerous today, especially taking into account that 12% Mazza is 1 for 2 with this kind of drop under these circumstances.

 

Race 2-

1.O K Lefty

2.Sublime Twist

3.Jumpin'joey

#1 O K LEFTY down the lane. #3 SUBLIME TWIST improved drastically in outing 3 weeks ago when cutting back to a sprint and having the apprentice take the helm. Gelding is a bit of an in and outer, so not sure what to expect here, but we'll leave in the underneath slots. #5 JUMPIN'JOEY went backwards in his last two starts before being shelved over 4 months ago. Chestnut is 2 for 9 at the distance ( just 1 for 7 otherwise ) and is another ? mark that we'll chunk in there.

 

Race 3-

1.Jersey Blues

2.Royal Palm Drive

3.Indygo Knight

#5 JERSEY BLUES has humongoid numbers, and should positively crunch these like an October secada. #3 ROYAL PALM DRIVE was eased by Paco in initial turf attempt, but perhaps she just didn't take to the stuff. Dirt try just before that produced an adj. number of 48.5, and he can spice up some exotics at a solid number. #7 INDYGO KNIGHT has been working decently since the last fiasco, and best effort came when running on the outside.

 

Race 4-

1.Crafty Time

2.Northwood Bully

3.Precious Paula

#7 CRAFTY TIME has a collection of speed figures that are comparable to many others in here, but often gets overlooked at the windows, and understandably so, as he hasn't hit the board in a year and six days. There is sun on the horizon with this one, however, as the lowly 3% outfit is a nice 12% ( 3-25 ) w/mid level turf routers returning in 30 days or less. The prices of those winners were a robust $14, $6, and $26, and there're even a 40-1 runner up finisher and a 44-1 3rd place runner in that sampling as well. Hmmmm.....  #4 NORTHWOOD BULLY was a naughty boy in his last start, getting booted from the secondary placing all the way down to 7th. Kevin Fields doesn't banish Ferrer like Pete Rose though, and that's a good thing as together they're 2 for 8 with turf routers in the 10-20 day range ( $35 and $24 ) with a couple of pricey in the money finishers as well. Big shot. #6 PRECIOUS PAULA was going in the right direction, having compiled a 3:1-2-0 record this summer, before the wheels inexplicably came off on latest. We'll leave this mare ( facing boys ) in the pasta sauce, tho.  OFF TURF: 5-1-2-3-4

 

Race 5-

1.Trail Rockin

2.Golden Earrings

3.Goldiebuxx

#10 TRAIL ROCKIN didn't show diddly poo in return off nearly a 2 year ( ouch ) layoff. They don't give too many vacations in this business, so obviously there was a major issue of sorts, but this one was doing some good things way back when, and low percentage ( 7% ) outfit is 2 for 11 ( 18% ) with 2nd off the layoff dirt routers. The prices of those winners ( $32 & $13 ) are fat, as well as the three second place finishes in the grouping ( 44-1, 11-1, and 14-1 ). Longshot play. #2 GOLDEN EARRINGS ( the name of Oscar Madison's greyhound in "The Odd Couple" ) stretches out to a route for the first time today, and McBurney, 12% on the norm, is 6-29 ( 19% ) w/first time stretchouts on the dirt ( 25 days or less ). #8 GOLDIEBUXX as good as any for the show dough.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #9 RMILLIONDOLLARBABY is trained by Allen Iwinski, a 14% conditioner who's a lousy 1-27 with 2nd off the layoff dirt routers.

 

Race 6-

1.Don't Stop Back

2.Mr. Spaceman

3.My Jersey Boy

In my ( never ) humble opinion, this race is an affair with just four having a shot at winning. That may not sound like much of a stand, but when you're doing rolling bets, that can be very important. #2 DON'T STOP BACK hasn't been seen since Hector was a pup, and while his turf sprints yielded good results, he now goes a distance of ground for the first time. Eddie Broome, 14% day to day, is 1 for 2 with first time routers on the lawn, returning off breaks in the 175-350 day range---oh yeah---the winner paid $42. #10 MR. SPACEMAN is wheeled right back in 8 days after a career best 3rd place finish under identical conditions, and Servis is 2 for 6 when doing such with turf routers ( 5-11 days ). #4 MY JERSEY BOY and the #7 LUCKY BALLADIER are the other two with a shot in this affair.  OFF TURF: 1-10-3-2-1A(AE)

 

Race 7-

1.Green Gatto

2.Saucy Don

3.Rainbow Heir

I LOVE the concept of this handicap, as there are a couple in here toting 128 pounds, and that's simply something you don't see too much of anymore. #1 GREEN GATTO hasn't finished out of the superfecta in a dozen straight, but despite his nice zip, has a propensity for losing ground in the lane ( 22 straight in that regards ). Numbers are extremely solid, and what I like the most is that this 5 year old "horse" ( who still has all his parts ) is 3 for 7 when breaking from the rail, and just 1 for 24 otherwise. #2 SAUCY DON has a snazzy 18:6-3-4 local ledger, and may come along late. #3 RAINBOW HEIR is another who loves it here ( 5 for 8 ) and rounds out the 1-2-3 triple.

 

Race 8-

1.Amblin Easy

2.Stiffed

3.Shesfromboston

#5 AMBLIN EASY was doing anything but at the beginning of last, as her stumbling beginning relegated her to an 8 length deficit at the quarter. That's fairly substantial for her, as in her prior 9 starts she had been an average of 2.15 lengths back at that point. Gal managed 3rd nonetheless, and simply whistled going 2 turns in the start before that. $1,000 bred mare has earned that 163 times over and is 3 for 4 at this trip ( give or take ) on the dirt. BIG shot. #3 STIFFED ( weird name for a horse ) is the clear choice should our top selection falter. Graded stakes placed with solid numbers, and 3 for 8 over this strip, she's your deserving favorite. #1 SHESFROMBOSTON stepped up her game in a big way with a transition to the sod, but not quite sure how she'll fair on the dirt today. Tossing under.  NOTE: AS OF 9:58 CST, DUE TO TWO LATE SCRATCHES, THE #4 AND #6 WILL BE OUR 2ND AND 3RD CHOICES RESPECTIVELY.

 

Race 9-

1.Chubilicious

2.Dancing Lion

3.Javerre

#8 CHUBILICIOUS turned in a head scratcher last time out, when losing by more than 20 at Philadelphia. We can be a little forgiving, as it was against open foes, where she's 1-4, compared to her 3-6 record against J-Breds. Lopez is 3 for 8 with dirt routers in the 9-18 day range, and this one rates a slight edge. #3 DANCING LION always gives a good account of herself, but is majoritively a fringe player, as proven by her 16:1-6-3 record at The Shore. Toss in the exotics. #2 JAVERRE hasn't been in action in nearly 3 months, but simply loves this place ( 8:4-1-1 ) and has done decently in a couple of off the bench races in the past.  NOTE: AS OF 10:00 CST, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #9 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race 10-

1.Shore Points South

2.Channel Surfing

3.Malala

Today's finale is quite possibly the most grotesque affair of the meet, and as a matter of fact NONE of the trainers has a win rate of 10% or more over the last 5 years.  In an interesting anomaly, should just half of the entry scratch today, that would mean that the #8 SHORE POINTS SOUTH would have started from the 7 hole in all 5 of her starts. Coinkidiks aside, this young lady as shown improved speed in her last duet, and 3% barn is a fair 2 for 17 ( 12% ) w/ maiden claiming dirt sprinters in this "day range". Interesting. #9 CHANNEL SURFING, at 0-10, is officially becoming "that" kind of a horse. Nice early foot, but not thoroughly convinced she can outsprint our #1 selection. #1A MALALA had a troubled debut and deserves a shot at some Shawshank redemption.

 

Monmouth Stats  ( Current ):     82-348  ( $545.00 ) Beatable Favorites:     7-20 ( 35.0% ) Favorite's Win %:148-348 ( 42.8% )


Travers Day Stats(2015 Final):      3-13    ( $29.80 )  Beatable Favorite:       0-0   (   0.0% ) Favorite's Win %:  6-13   ( 46.2% ) +/- : +16.5% against a 15.0% takeout

Santa Anita Stats(2015 Final):     67-290 ( $462.00 ) Beatable Favorites:   18-39 ( 46.2% ) Favorite's Win %:141-334( 42.2% ) +/-:  -20.4% against a 15.0% takeout

Belmont Stats     (2015 Final):       2-13     ($25.90 ) Beatable Favorites:      1-6  ( 16.7% ) Favorite's Win %:   2-13  ( 15.4% ) +/-:   even    against a  15.0% takeout

Pimlico Stats       (2015 Final):       1-14      ( $6.80 ) Beatable Favorites:      3-3  ( 100%  ) Favorite's Win %:   5-14  ( 35.7% ) +/-:  -75.7% against an 18.0% takeout

Churchill Stats     (2015 Final):      2-25    (  $15.40 ) Beatable Favorites:      2-4  ( 50.0% ) Favorite's Win %;   6-25  ( 24.0% ) +/-:  -69.0% against a 17.5% takeout

Keeneland Stats  (2015 Final):    39-139  ( $278.00 ) Beatable Favorites:     3-13 ( 23.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 56-139 ( 40.3% ) +/-:   even   against a 16.0% takeout

Gulfstream Stats (2015 Final): 163-848 ( $1,467.70 ) Beatable Favorites : 31-104 ( 29.8% ) Favorite's Win %: 330-848 (38.9%) +/-: -13.5% against a 17.0% takeout


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, and Travers full days (Above Churchill, Pimlico, and Belmont included in dirt and cumulative numbers):

( 2014-2015 Final ): 22-127   ( $260.40 ) Beatable Favorites: 10-27 ( 37.0% ) Favorite's Win %: 43-127  ( 33.9% )  +/-: +2.5% against a 16.9% takeout                              


Poly Tracks 2014   (All Final): 83-557     ( $789.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-67   ( 22.4% ) Favorite's Win %: 160 -576  ( 27.8% ) +/-: -29.3% against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks 2014-5 (All Final): 524-2463 ($4,454.90) Beatable Favorites : 89-272 ( 32.7% ) Favorite's Win%: 909- 2526 ( 36.0% ) +/-: -9.6%  against a 17.0% takeout


Cumulative Stats (All Final): 607-3020 ($5,244.10) Beatable Favorites : 104-339 ( 30.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 1069-3102 ( 34.5% ) +/-: -12.8% against a 16.5% takeout


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