KevinCoxItem


Had a nice little 3 bagger here yesterday, but man, from a betting standpoint I just can't seem to click with a nice pick 5 like I love to do from time to time.

Happy Labor Day, everyone. and PLEASE don't drink and drive. If you can afford to bet, you can afford a cab.

Let's get a nice little push here, as we just have a few weeks left before switching over to Keeneland.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


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Monmouth Park - 9/7 - Happy Labor Day

 

Race 1-

1.Tocatchathief

2.Rocky the Kid

3.Roundelay

#2 TOCATCHATHIEF displayed nice early zip in career opener, when mixing it up down on the inside---never easy for a firster. Gets a bit off the rail today, and 265 Tomlinson at the distance says that this one is eligible to improve off that effort #3 ROCKY THE KID makes his 3rd consecutive drop in class here, and does so off a nice 3rd place finish over this strip. Blinkers were added that day, but sometimes a horse can regress off a good effort when undergoing an equipment change. In this field, however...   #6 ROUNDELAY ( a half to Art Vandelay ? ) begins working life today off a nice gate breeze, has a healthy Tommy, and draws just splendidly.

 

Race 2-

1.Double The Energy

2.Mischievous Sophie

3.It's Macaroni

Like me and my buddies Luis and Gerard say, you just HAVE to love horses like #1 DOUBLE THE ENERGY. They just simply know where the line is, and anytime you see an animal with more wins than placings combined, you have to toss a checkmark next to her, and pay heed. In this case, while the 32:11-4-2 record unto itself is snazzy, this grey mare gets in light, drops to her lowest level to date, and is 4-4 ITM @ The Shore. Solid. #4 MISCHIEVOUS SOPHIE, 1 for 2 at this class or lower, is on a 4 race Beyer upswing, and although you won't be getting that 51-1 offering as in the last, the price should still be solid enough. #2 IT'S MACARONI has hit the board in her last septet, all turf dashes, and we see no palpable reason to exclude in this spot.  OFF TURF: 2-7-1-6-4

 

Race 3-

1.Stevarino

2.Ignatius

3.Tharyic

#2 STEVARINO came out of the gate like a drunken sailor in most recent, and while this one has yet to finish 1-2-3, he sure as heck gets bet, losing all six starts by an average of $2.50-1. That being said, the collection of speed figures compiled are honest enough, and is a timid choice in a bad field. #4 IGNATIUS has been an in and outer in his last five races ( an inconsistency that is not uncommon amongst these types ), and wouldn't be surprised to see a decent effort today. #8 THARYIC goes inside to outside, and occasionally that can trigger the ol' light bulb in a maiden.

 

Race 4-

1.R Blackjack

2.Foralltheglory

3.Lewis Henry

#10 R BLACKJACK hasn't been seen in God knows how long ( actually, I know that it's a shade under two years, but I thought the first expression was better ), but was 4:2-2-0 at this trip, numbers were good way back when, has speed, draws the outside, and has never been at this level. We'll take a shot. #7 FORALLTHEGLORY is another one coming in off a break, but has some zip and gets in light. #2 LEWIS HENRY slides inward from the 9 to the two hole today, and is as good a choice as any for the show dough.

 

Race 5-

1.Nineinthenine

2.Hyman Roth

3.Pulpit's Express

#2 NINEINTHENINE had a belated rally going an eighth shorter at this level a tad over 3 weeks ago, but got the job done at a mile and a sixteenth just prior to that. Gelding is never given any respect mutually, but may sit a nice trip from the rail today at solid odds. #7 HYMAN ROTH has nice tactical speed, and drops in class once again. Centeno climbs back aboard and this one is 1 for 2 at this dist. #3 PULPIT'S EXPRESS set silly fractions in most recent, before understandably fading late. Nice pilot switch to Ferrer today.  OFF TURF: 2-3-4-5-10

 

Race 6-

1.Piece of Eight

2.Picadilly Roadster

3.Gettinjazzywithit

#6 PIECE OF EIGHT didn't show much in her debut, but hey, maybe he just wasn't digging the grass, ya know ? Drops 4 pounds, switches surfaces, and has Lasix added. Not entirely hopeless in a wide open deal. #8 PICADILLY ROADSTER ( by Ghostzapper ) has a hefty 428 Tomlinson for the curtain riser, and has some nice moves on the worktab, while getting the outside post. #5 GETTINJAZZYWITHIT is from an unproven sire, but the barn does extremely well w/firsters. Not enamored with the oh-25 jockey, so we'll leave underneath.

 

Race 7-

1.Mythical Man

2.Logan Street

3.Treasury Devil

#4 MYTHICAL MAN seems to run his "cycles" in groups of 4 or 5 races, and it that's the case then he should probably have another good one left in his knapsack for today. Gets away from his nemesis, Lighthouse Sound, and should be right there turning for home. As for those last 70 yards, however...  #2 LOGAN STREET goes from an apprentice to a journeyman today, and when you finish a close 2nd, and the comment line says "not good enough", then that kind of switch may be what the doctor ordered; 2 for 4 here, and 3 for 22 elsewhere. #5 TREASURY DEVIL is 2nd off the claim for Navarro, and has comparable turf numbers to others signed on.  OFF TURF: 5-1-8-9-6

 

Race 8-

1.Memories of Winter

2.Remarkable Tale

3.He'll Pay

#6 MEMORIES OF WINTER has a few decent moves interspersed with some moderate ones, and obviously, the fact that he was bred for $35,000, but sold for just $8K at auction means he probably didn't vet out very well at Keeneland last year. Regardless, the 385 Tommy is cool, and you could do a lot worse than a Hard Spun out of a Street Cry mare. #1 REMARKABLE TALE is your obvious favorite, with those decent numbers, and I like the crisp work since the last race. #4 HE'LL PAY gets juice for my guy Larry today, and as he was bet down to 5-1 in debut, we'll permit him another go at things.

 

Race 9-

1.Duke of Luke

2.Here's to Mike

3.Signature Look

#4 DUKE OF LUKE employed a change of tactics when transitioning to the turf a month ago, and gave up the ghost rather readily for Lanerie, who had a hellacious Saratoga. I actually like the switch to a hungry bug today, as well as the versatility having been shown in his last trio of races, all under different circumstances. #1 HERE'S TO MIKE is 3 for 4 on the turf overall, gets the wood, and has nice numbers. Totally logical. #2 SIGNATURE LOOK stepped up his turf game nicely ( at least from a numbers standpoint ) in his final two spring starts before being shelved at the end of May. Fella returns a few ounces lighter today ( and I'm not talking about the jockey ), and is worth a "look" here, especially off that nice turf breeze last week.  OFF TURF: 4-1-5-11-12

 

Race 10-

1.Joint Return

2.Stiffed

3.Checkupfromzneckup

Do yourself a big favor and take a nice Crayola ( I've always been fond of Magenta ) and draw a line through the last of the #3 JOINT RETURN, as apparently the gal and turf simply don't get along. Start before that was a Grade 1, and as a matter of fact, this gal has been facing some stiff competition for quite some, and she has won all 5 starts over a fast track in ungraded competition. Play of the day. #2 STIFFED has had excuses in her last two, but boy, that race three back was a corker, wasn't it ? ( Adjusted figure of a 98.2 ) Digs the scenery here, and should be tossed into the exotics. #6 CHECKUPFROMZNECKUP ran an eye popping 102 in first start for Rudy ( Hmmm... ) back in June and then was instantly shelved before switching barns once again. Tough to leave out, but I would take a gander pre race.  NOTE: AS OF 10:47 , DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #5 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race 11-

1.First Ronin

2.Goodnewswithatwist

3.Rasta Friend ( Brz )

#9 FIRST RONIN is fleet afoot, and stepped up his game in a big way in latest when putting forth a lifetime effort at this level last time out. Not sure where this resurgence is coming from, but we'll bite. #7 GOODNEWSWITHATWIST closed with a flourish in first start off an extended break, and although we're not quite sure what to expect today, I reckon we have to leave in. #2 RASTA FRIEND (BRZ) appreciated the added dx. in last and now switches to a "new" journeyman for todays' similar event. I sometimes like playing those that have just lost their bugs, as they try extra hard early on in the next chapter of their career.

 

Monmouth Stats  ( Current ):     82-348  ( $545.00 ) Beatable Favorites:     7-20 ( 35.0% ) Favorite's Win %:148-348 ( 42.8% )


Travers Day Stats(2015 Final):      3-13    ( $29.80 )  Beatable Favorite:       0-0   (   0.0% ) Favorite's Win %:  6-13   ( 46.2% ) +/- : +16.5% against a 15.0% takeout

Santa Anita Stats(2015 Final):     67-290 ( $462.00 ) Beatable Favorites:   18-39 ( 46.2% ) Favorite's Win %:141-334( 42.2% ) +/-:  -20.4% against a 15.0% takeout

Belmont Stats     (2015 Final):       2-13     ($25.90 ) Beatable Favorites:      1-6  ( 16.7% ) Favorite's Win %:   2-13  ( 15.4% ) +/-:   even    against a  15.0% takeout

Pimlico Stats       (2015 Final):       1-14      ( $6.80 ) Beatable Favorites:      3-3  ( 100%  ) Favorite's Win %:   5-14  ( 35.7% ) +/-:  -75.7% against an 18.0% takeout

Churchill Stats     (2015 Final):      2-25    (  $15.40 ) Beatable Favorites:      2-4  ( 50.0% ) Favorite's Win %;   6-25  ( 24.0% ) +/-:  -69.0% against a 17.5% takeout

Keeneland Stats  (2015 Final):    39-139  ( $278.00 ) Beatable Favorites:     3-13 ( 23.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 56-139 ( 40.3% ) +/-:   even   against a 16.0% takeout

Gulfstream Stats (2015 Final): 163-848 ( $1,467.70 ) Beatable Favorites : 31-104 ( 29.8% ) Favorite's Win %: 330-848 (38.9%) +/-: -13.5% against a 17.0% takeout


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, and Travers full days (Above Churchill, Pimlico, and Belmont included in dirt and cumulative numbers):

( 2014-2015 Final ): 22-127   ( $260.40 ) Beatable Favorites: 10-27 ( 37.0% ) Favorite's Win %: 43-127  ( 33.9% )  +/-: +2.5% against a 16.9% takeout                              


Poly Tracks 2014   (All Final): 83-557     ( $789.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-67   ( 22.4% ) Favorite's Win %: 160 -576  ( 27.8% ) +/-: -29.3% against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks 2014-5 (All Final): 524-2463 ($4,454.90) Beatable Favorites : 89-272 ( 32.7% ) Favorite's Win%: 909- 2526 ( 36.0% ) +/-: -9.6%  against a 17.0% takeout


Cumulative Stats (All Final): 607-3020 ($5,244.10) Beatable Favorites : 104-339 ( 30.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 1069-3102 ( 34.5% ) +/-: -12.8% against a 16.5% takeout


 MonmouthParkBio