KevinCoxItem


Nothing clever to say tonight... "Tired, boss. Just dog tired."


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


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Monmouth Park - 9/6

 

Race 1-

1.Super Duker

2.Diamond Prince

3.Greed Is Good

#1 SUPER DUKER took a big drop in last, and nearly got the job done at 21-1, but had to settle for the runner up spoils that day. There'll be no mystery as to the tactics today, as the kid will be gunning from the time they spring open the latches. Grab his tail to get the glory. #3 DIAMOND PRINCE did well enough to finish in the first half of the field in his return off a 2+ month layoff, and he gets off the rail a bit today while catching a fast track; eligible to improve. #5 GREED IS GOOD will most likely be stalking our top choice, but should that one scoot away, this one may get disheartened a bit. Leaving underneath.  NOTE: AS OF 12:14, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #6 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race 2-

1.Bobby V.

2.Pac Yer Tack

3.Untamed

#5 BOBBY V. has ascended the Beyer ladder in his last quintet, culminating with a big 73 when finishing 2nd against similar last time out. Trevor sticks around, and this one appears a standout. #2 PAC YER TACK closed late up the rail to get the job done at 6-1 2 weeks ago, and although we're placing underneath, you must remember that the effort was the best put forth by this one in his last eight outings---beware the bounce. #8 UNTAMED found the winners' circle for the first time in over 20 months, but the bug flees the scene, as he lands on one for a barn that is more likely to give him quality mounts down the road; fringe player.

 

Race 3-

1.Doherty

2.I Will

3.Way of the Warrior

#4 DOHERTY was, to quote Clyde Frazier, " A stumblin' and a bumblin' " out of the gate on August 16th, and ended up just beating half the field home at 3-5. A chance to make amends today, as Tony Wilson drops this gelding in to his lowest level yet. #7 I WILL, a clear 2nd against slightly cheaper in last, is hiked up a bit in first start for Willard off the claim. Consistent sort hasn't won in over a year and a half, but is always sniffing the action, and figures prominent once again. #1 WAY OF THE WARRIOR was life and death to get outta the maiden ranks 14 days back, but not quite sure as to whether or not that effort taxed him. Will include on the rollers, but with a little caution.

 

Race 4-

1.Truly a Champ

2.Awesome Heart

3.Better Man

I know, I know, I know, the fact that we're using the #1 TRULY A CHAMP also means that we're using his oh-54 pilot, Alice Cartwright. Truth be told, is that she's actually ridden a couple'a decent races at big odds this meet, but she's not particularly strong in the lane. As for this 6YO gelding, he threw up his best number in 2015 most recently, and was 2 1/2 lengths clear of the rest that day. Meh.... #2 AWESOME HEART had front wraps added in last, and ran abysmally, finishing up the track at 7-5. Everything prior to that is pretty good, but I would most definitely take agander at this one in the paddock and on the track. #7 BETTER MAN has slid into the superfecta in his last 5 starts ( including three runner up performances ), and is quasi logical here.

 

Race 5-

1.Two Notch Road

2.Love Rules All

3.Escapist

#5 TWO NOTCH ROAD has been positively marooned in his last two, but has a few things working in his favor today: Firstly, he slides in 6 slots, which is nice. Add in the fact that this graded stakes placed runner is now in for 30K, and the plot thickens. Now toss in to the cake batter that he's 1 for 3 dashing on firm turf, and you have a nice little play here. #7 LOVE RULES ALL hasn't been seen for more than the length of a calendar, but it's "The Miracle Trainer" calling the shots, and gelding hung up some huge numbers way back when. Obvious majah playah if sound. #1 ESCAPIST ships down from The Spa after winning at this trip on 8/22, and switches from one Castellano to another. I like the concept of Bruce Brown looking for a softer spot than he would've had upstate.  OFF TURF: 7-3-1-6-4

 

Race 6-

1.We B Jammin

2.Tribal Honour

3.Social Network

#6 WE B JAMMIN simply lays over these from a pace and speed figure standpoint---book it. #2 TRIBAL HONOUR was valiant in defeat when finishing 3rd breaking from this level in most recent. Gets post relief today and most assuredly deserves to be in your exotics. #5 SOCIAL NETWORK rounds out the top 3 in this fairly straightforward affair.

 

Race 7-

1.Pleasant McGee

2.Storminateacup

3.Pleasure

#7 PLEASANT MCGEE had a very awkward start in Penn National on the 19th, as after being on the bit early, she was compelled to take the lead at the half, only to peter out late. In much more capable hands today, and that adjusted number of 79.1 just prior to that stands out a bit, no ? #2 STORMINATECUP hasn't been passed in her last two, and who the hell can argue with that ? #6 PLEASURE beat 20K conditional foes by a honker last time out, and by my numbers, that level is pretty much the equivalent of what she'll be facing today. Numbers going in the right direction, and likes this trip.  OFF TURF: 13(AE)-5-1-7-10

 

Race 8-

1.Island Saint

2.Miss Prudence

3.Areolite

Little baby stakes here, and IMHO the #7 ISLAND SAINT should simply crush this group. Filly was the easiest kind of winner in debut at 'Toga ( Speightstown in the slop at 3 to 2 ?? Really ? ), and followed that up with an above average work. Ain't facing much here, and the sky's the limit for this one. #2 MISS PRUDENCE was very professional when winning at first asking at Delaware, and it's worth noting that the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th place finishers from that day all won their subsequent starts ( 61, 40 & 52 Beyers ). January bred has a bit of a maturity edge over 5 other entrants here, and I like that closing kick. #6 AREOLITE gets a switch fro Leparoux to Santana today, and in my eyes that's the equivalent of first time Lasix.

 

Race 9-

1.Barrel of Love

2.Tune Me In

3.Change of Command

#6 BARREL OF LOVE had very little chance from the 11 hole at Saratoga, and the comment line from that day made me chuckle a bit ( "Stymied stretch" ), but all outings prior to that are A-OK. This one was claimed for 40 three starts back and is now entered for 25% below that purchase price. Centeno hops aboard, and the more I type, the more I like. #1 TUNE ME IN is 19-22 ITM ( ! ) locally and has won two straight; mandatory inclusion in all your action. #3 CHANGE OF COMMAND will be on the choo choo early, but has lost ground in 14 straight. Caveat emptor.  OFF TURF: 4-2-7-9-8  NOTE: AS OF 11:58, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #5 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race 10-

1.Full Salute

2.Grecian Prince

3.Pinnacle Peak

Feature race of the day is the $100,000 Sapling going a mile on the dirt...  #5 FULL SALUTE has done very little wrong in his abbreviated career, winning on both the dirt and turf. Don't be frightened by the advertised 6% win rate for Plesa with the sprint to route angle, because it's actually 17% First Time Route with those that have already run. 371 Tommy at this distance assuages any fears, and Paco takes over. #2 GRECIAN PRINCE has hit the board in each and every start ( with steadily improving figs. ), and Smarty Jones on top of a Giant's Causeway mare says this distance is right up his alley. #6 PINNACLE PEAK won by a country mile on the stretchout at Prairie Meadows, and appears nicely spotted by Stidham today; Trevor at the helm.

 

Race 11-

1.Charming Emily

2.Feisty Valentina ( Ire )

3.Annie Dancing

#11 CHARMING EMILY didn't display much oomph in most recent ( her first go-round with blinkers ) and now takes the biggest drop in the game for Scott, who's extremely proficient in that regards. Hot bug takes over and this miss will need to reach back to one of those prior efforts to get the job done. Additionally, as of 11:59 A.M. it is being reported that this one will be running without shoes. Interesting, to say the least, but you'd have to figure that she has trained satisfactorily in this fashion.  #3 FEISTY VALENTINA (IRE) immolated some bakalava in latest, when finishing 3rd at 3 to 5. Winner returned to repeat next time out, posting a 62 Beyer against open 25K claimers. Lopez gets on, and you have to leave this one in the brownie batter. #6 ANNIE DANCING, a plodding, plodders', plodder, may come along for the show dough. ( Bakalava ? Bread ? Brownies ? I guess I have some cravings as I type this watching the horses go to the track for Saratoga's finale on Friday---mooshy mooshy. )  OFF TURF: 11-6-3-8-10 

 

Monmouth Stats  ( Current ):     78-337  ( $513.60 ) Beatable Favorites:     7-20 ( 35.0% ) Favorite's Win %:143-337 ( 42.4% )


Travers Day Stats(2015 Final):      3-13    ( $29.80 )  Beatable Favorite:       0-0   (   0.0% ) Favorite's Win %:  6-13   ( 46.2% ) +/- : +16.5% against a 15.0% takeout

Santa Anita Stats(2015 Final):     67-290 ( $462.00 ) Beatable Favorites:   18-39 ( 46.2% ) Favorite's Win %:141-334( 42.2% ) +/-:  -20.4% against a 15.0% takeout

Belmont Stats     (2015 Final):       2-13     ($25.90 ) Beatable Favorites:      1-6  ( 16.7% ) Favorite's Win %:   2-13  ( 15.4% ) +/-:   even    against a  15.0% takeout

Pimlico Stats       (2015 Final):       1-14      ( $6.80 ) Beatable Favorites:      3-3  ( 100%  ) Favorite's Win %:   5-14  ( 35.7% ) +/-:  -75.7% against an 18.0% takeout

Churchill Stats     (2015 Final):      2-25    (  $15.40 ) Beatable Favorites:      2-4  ( 50.0% ) Favorite's Win %;   6-25  ( 24.0% ) +/-:  -69.0% against a 17.5% takeout

Keeneland Stats  (2015 Final):    39-139  ( $278.00 ) Beatable Favorites:     3-13 ( 23.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 56-139 ( 40.3% ) +/-:   even   against a 16.0% takeout

Gulfstream Stats (2015 Final): 163-848 ( $1,467.70 ) Beatable Favorites : 31-104 ( 29.8% ) Favorite's Win %: 330-848 (38.9%) +/-: -13.5% against a 17.0% takeout


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, and Travers full days (Above Churchill, Pimlico, and Belmont included in dirt and cumulative numbers):

( 2014-2015 Final ): 22-127   ( $260.40 ) Beatable Favorites: 10-27 ( 37.0% ) Favorite's Win %: 43-127  ( 33.9% )  +/-: +2.5% against a 16.9% takeout                              


Poly Tracks 2014   (All Final): 83-557     ( $789.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-67   ( 22.4% ) Favorite's Win %: 160 -576  ( 27.8% ) +/-: -29.3% against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks 2014-5 (All Final): 524-2463 ($4,454.90) Beatable Favorites : 89-272 ( 32.7% ) Favorite's Win%: 909- 2526 ( 36.0% ) +/-: -9.6%  against a 17.0% takeout


Cumulative Stats (All Final): 607-3020 ($5,244.10) Beatable Favorites : 104-339 ( 30.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 1069-3102 ( 34.5% ) +/-: -12.8% against a 16.5% takeout


 MonmouthParkBio