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Just one lonely ( $13 ) winner on the day ( $51 exacta ), but on the good news front..... Well, it's come full circle---from being the first EVER donor to Old Friends many years ago, to promoting Zippy Chippy and the farm on Horseplayers, and now to being put on the advisory board of Old Friends Cabin Creek ( Saratoga ), a WONDERFUL home for retired racehorses. Hopefully we can bring those ideas I presented at the Retired Racehorse summit Tuesday to fruition !! Far out, man !! So, waddya say, my faithful readers---care to rescue a horse or two ? There's NO donation too small. Let's show the farm that they made a wise decision. Send ANY check here: 483 Sand Hill Rd.Greenfield Center, New York, 12833
(518) 698-2377
http://www.oldfriendsatcabincreek.com/


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


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Monmouth Park - 9/5

 

Race 1-

1.Miss Amalita

2.More Than Special

3.Charlie's Rainbow

#1 MISS AMALITA should positively crush this bunch. If you draw a line through those route attempts, you have a collection of sprint Beyers that would simply lay over this field. When you factor in that this "Miss" is dropping to her lowest level yet, and is now piloted by a top flight jock, she seems like a logical single to start out your pick 5. #6 MORE THAN SPECIAL has been bitten by the "seconditis" bug of late, having been a jealous bridesmaid in four straight. The underneath portion of the exacta seems just about right. #5 CHARLIE'S RAINBOW beat slightly cheaper here about 3 weeks ago, and switches back to Ferrer today, as I believe Tammi is up at Suffolk for the day. Pace factor.

 

Race 2-

1.Action Tonight

2.Alice and Trixie

3.Gallant Lady

#2 ACTION TONIGHT was a clear 2nd when facing slightly tougher on 8/16, and gets a journeyman back in the irons today, which is an angle that I sometimes like when a horse is live, as it proves that the connections aren't scared about the added weight. Speed figures have been going up, up, up, and we expect a nice effort today. #3 ALICE AND TRIXIE inexplicably tossed in a flop in that same race, but filly had crashed the superfecta in 9 of 10 prior to that, and deserves another chance today. #4 GALLANT LADY is at a career low here and always gives a good account of herself, as evident by those twelve consecutive top 4 finishes. Logical 1-2-3 player.

 

Race 3-

1.Joni's Wildcat

2.Bluegrass Demon

3.Torment

#7 JONI'S WILDCAT, claimed from his last two, has been a model of consistency since the end of May, tallying up a 4:1-2-1 record during that stretch. The numbers are obviously there, and I love the fact that the pre-claim pilot is enlisted to ride once again. #8 BLUEGRASS DEMON was all out to get up for the place spot in most recent, and is a decent 2 for 13 at this trip ( just 2 for 26 in other dirt races ). Gets a jock upgrade to Jose today ( we seem to be calling his number a lot ), and this one can make a little noise. #2 TORMENT, up the track at double this level in last, returns to face runners from the class level of his win two back, and is worth inclusion with the hot bug sticking around.

 

Race 4-

1.Revive and Resurge

2. Brass Compass

3.City Elitist

#3 REVIVE AND RESURGE has been moving like a snail in the mornings, but Servis knows what he's doing, and this one is bred extremely well for this trip. Apprentice is just 1-16 on the local turf, but he'll get better in that area with experience; demand value. #9 BRASS COMPASS got smacked around a bit in debut, but fought the good fight, and lost by just a touch over 3 lengths. Gets a complete makeover today ( blinkers, juice, stretchout, and Bobblehead ), and is a mandatory "use" on all your rollers. #6 CITY ELITIST got smushed in the career opener, but that was a tough spot to start things out anyway. January bred has a maturity edge here, and with City Zip coursing through his veins, is more than eligible to step up his game a bit.  OFF TURF: 6-3-1-9-4

 

Race 5-

1.On Tenterhooks

2.Seuss

3.Charles Brecknridge

#6 ON TENTERHOOKS has really figured it out in the last two, upping his Beyer figures to a level not achieved in any of his prior outings. Oddly, this grey colt is the recipient of his 7th different rider from as many calls to the post, but it's Paco, and for as much as he drives me nuts, he is, in fact winning at 25% here, so...  It'll be green eggs and ham for dinner for us if the #5 SEUSS gets up to complete a nice exacta here. $300,000 Ocala purchase is by Tale of the Cat, who does pretty well with his get, and 378 Tomlinson adds to the appeal. Well, that turf experiment for the #1 CHARLES BRECKNRIDGE didn't quite work out, heh ? Quintet of starts just before that were solid enough to to have us leave this one in the cake batter, tho.

 

Race 6-

1.Smiling Charlie

2.Disco Elvis

3.Very Comfortable

Tough race here. #4 SMILING CHARLIE has shown improved speed in his last two ( both on the dirt ) and connections are probably thinking "Sheesh, with the turf course as hard as it is, let's take a shot and hope that that dirt speed carries us to the line." Truth be told is that this one actually has a win on the green stuff, and Castellano has some familiarity with 'Chuck, as they teamed up for a runner up finish 2 years ago. #1 DISCO ELVIS beat just one home in a state bred stakes down in Maryland, but the number came back honest enough and 7 year old gelding is 2:1-1-0 when breaking from the innermost 2 posts---always meaningful in a tricky dash such as this. #3 VERY COMFORTABLE flopped in latest, but if you notice, there was a reeeeal slow work just before that. Perhaps he just wasn't 100% that day, so we'll give'm another shot.

 

Race 7-

1.Blue Bahia

2.Brandy's Girl

3.Exchanging Secrets

#8 BLUE BAHIA draws well for the curtain riser, and brings in tow the highest Tomlinson in the field at the dx. ( 401 ). Timid selection. #3 BRANDY'S GIRL had a 70 day gap in the worktab earlier this summer, and that's never something you like to see, but fired off a bullet gate work of 47 2/5th's just 5 days ago ( handling ) and it appears she's A-okay. #2 EXCHANGING SECRETS is another that's well bred for this trip ( Danzig/Meadowlake ), and discount Plesa/Paco at your own peril.

 

Race 8-

1.Good Feng Shui

2.Star Maneuver

3.Starship Wildcat

#1 GOOD FENG SHUI, a prolific winner throughout his career ( 13 for 42 ! ), ships in from Philadelphia off a gutsy win against slightly tougher going a 1/16th of a mile less. Pat Farro legs up Guidel here, and this one may be perfectly harmonized surrounded by owners in the winners' circle. #2 STAR MANEUVER hasn't shown a whole heck of a lot in his last quartet, so the "For Sale" sticker is once again attached to his rump. The good news, is that he's 3:1-2-0 in his last three when entered for a tag, and picks up a top flight rider. #5 STARSHIP WILDCAT is 18:5-5-1 @ this dx., and just 7:1-0-0 otherwise, so you know where his bread is buttered. Except for one hiccup, gelding is totally in form and must be used in all wagers, vertical and horizontal.  OFF TURF: 1-2-1A(AE)-7-5  NOTE: AS OF 12:14, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #1A WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION, AND FOR TRIPLE PURPOSES, YOU CAN USE THE #6.

 

Race 9-

1.Roman Officer

2.Gypsy Baron

3.Derby Gold

#3 ROMAN OFFICER moved up in a big way when making his first start off the claim for Brown, going wire to wire against conditional claimers. Now while I will acquiesce that this is a bit more of a class test, I feel he'll be somewhat overlooked in the odds department, and boy, look at that record at this distance ( 3 for 5 ). #4 GYPSY BARON is another that recently went wire to wire, and ended up in a new barn for his efforts. DiBona hikes him up in class a bit to protect him, but the figure earned from that effort is healthy enough to warrant a looksie. #1 DERBY GOLD, in the money for 19 of 24 fast track dirt starts, and is 11:3-5-2 when up for sale; excellent option if you wanted to do a "Tri Key Box".

 

Race 10-

1.Rachel Wall

2.Strict Compliance

3.Cali Thirty Seven

The feature race of the day is the Grade 3 Boiling Springs for 100 big ones on the lawn, and it's a very competitive affair. #1 RACHEL WALL tried the sod for the first time nearly 6 weeks ago, and took to it splendidly for Motion, nearly lighting up the tote board at 23-1. 412 turf Tomlinson is positively monstrous, so you know it wasn't a fluke, and I just love the cozy draw, as well as the fact that this one runs sans Lasix. She doesn't necessarily need the lead, as evident by the maiden breaker, and Danny gets the nod. Oh yeah--- ALL four of the runners from the last that have come back to win their next starts, posting Beyers of 85,79,78 and 78. We'll make this one one of our plays of the meet #3 STRICT COMPLIANCE: Chad, big fig's, and class---next. #2 CALI THIRTY SEVEN may last for a share.  OFF TURF: 10-3-4-6-9  NOTE: AFTER A DISAPPOINTING LATE SCRATCH, THE #6 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race 11-

1.I'm a Good Looker

2.Eire En Pointe

3.Always Dear

#1 I'M A GOOD LOOKER ( dig it ) drops and pops in the finale. #9 EIRE EN POINTE undergoes a consortium of changes today: Turf to dirt, 2 turns to 1, layoff, plummets down the ladder, and gets a new reinsman. Big shot #4 ALWAYS DEAR tried to do things about 122 pounds lighter in last outing, as she tossed Trevor at the onset. Was claimed that day, which means she's eligible for this condition once again; mare is 4:2-1-1 when running for $7,500 or less.  NOTE: AS OF 12:17, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #6 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Monmouth Stats  ( Current ):     73-315  ( $482.40 ) Beatable Favorites:     7-20 ( 35.0% ) Favorite's Win %:136-315 ( 43.1% )


Travers Day Stats(2015 Final):      3-13    ( $29.80 )  Beatable Favorite:       0-0   (   0.0% ) Favorite's Win %:  6-13   ( 46.2% ) +/- : +16.5% against a 15.0% takeout

Santa Anita Stats(2015 Final):     67-290 ( $462.00 ) Beatable Favorites:   18-39 ( 46.2% ) Favorite's Win %:141-334( 42.2% ) +/-:  -20.4% against a 15.0% takeout

Belmont Stats     (2015 Final):       2-13     ($25.90 ) Beatable Favorites:      1-6  ( 16.7% ) Favorite's Win %:   2-13  ( 15.4% ) +/-:   even    against a  15.0% takeout

Pimlico Stats       (2015 Final):       1-14      ( $6.80 ) Beatable Favorites:      3-3  ( 100%  ) Favorite's Win %:   5-14  ( 35.7% ) +/-:  -75.7% against an 18.0% takeout

Churchill Stats     (2015 Final):      2-25    (  $15.40 ) Beatable Favorites:      2-4  ( 50.0% ) Favorite's Win %;   6-25  ( 24.0% ) +/-:  -69.0% against a 17.5% takeout

Keeneland Stats  (2015 Final):    39-139  ( $278.00 ) Beatable Favorites:     3-13 ( 23.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 56-139 ( 40.3% ) +/-:   even   against a 16.0% takeout

Gulfstream Stats (2015 Final): 163-848 ( $1,467.70 ) Beatable Favorites : 31-104 ( 29.8% ) Favorite's Win %: 330-848 (38.9%) +/-: -13.5% against a 17.0% takeout


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, and Travers full days (Above Churchill, Pimlico, and Belmont included in dirt and cumulative numbers):

( 2014-2015 Final ): 22-127   ( $260.40 ) Beatable Favorites: 10-27 ( 37.0% ) Favorite's Win %: 43-127  ( 33.9% )  +/-: +2.5% against a 16.9% takeout                              


Poly Tracks 2014   (All Final): 83-557     ( $789.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-67   ( 22.4% ) Favorite's Win %: 160 -576  ( 27.8% ) +/-: -29.3% against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks 2014-5 (All Final): 524-2463 ($4,454.90) Beatable Favorites : 89-272 ( 32.7% ) Favorite's Win%: 909- 2526 ( 36.0% ) +/-: -9.6%  against a 17.0% takeout


Cumulative Stats (All Final): 607-3020 ($5,244.10) Beatable Favorites : 104-339 ( 30.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 1069-3102 ( 34.5% ) +/-: -12.8% against a 16.5% takeout


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