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-We finished up a busy weekend here with a chalky grand slam on Sunday, and are now on a nice little 11-24 streak heading into September.

-Kudos to Maria Borrell and Andre Fabre for winning their respective Grade 1's on Saturday SANS Lasix.

-I felt from a calendar and trainers' standpoint, Pharoah would've been better suited in Philadelphia.

-We will be in Kentucky Downs for a seminar and contest on 9/12, and another seminar on 9/12, along with some in house television work as well. Totally jazzed, and you can find details on the contest right here

-On that 9/16 date, we will also be giving a bus seminar from Old Friends TO Kentucky Downs. Details on Old Friends can be found at http://www.oldfriendsequine.org/


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 2: Lady Liana


I want to thank those that read my column, and have recently opened up accounts as a result of their fondness for what they see here. If you have any questions at any time, you can reach me here on Disqus, or on Twitter @brooklyncowboy1. For those who dig the scene here, and would like to be part of it, registration on our home page is easy, and if you'd like, feel free to include my name in the referral box, and let me know, so I can try and get ya' some cool swag!


 

Monmouth Park - 9/4

 

Race 1-

1.Fairest Broad

2.Asheepo

3.Sammi's Valentne

#2 FAIREST BROAD has just been working moderately for debut, but Popmpay ( 2 for 11, $4.03 ROI w/2YO filly dirt dprinters debuting in  mdspwt ) is having a fine stand, and this is not the deepest of fields for debut; upset chance in the week's opener. #3 ASHEEPO been doing decently in the mornings for top flight connections, and I like the fact that he seems more perked up with the gate moves. #4 SAMMI'S VALENTINE fired off a bullet for Mr. Perkins on August 13th, then he subsequently backed off this gal a bit. 380 Tomlinson is extremely strong for this bunch, and is a big factor.

 

Race 2-

1.Musket Mary

2.Bay Dawn

3.Too Hollywood

#8 MUSKET MARY came within a half length of rattling off a grand slam two back, and then got smacked around at the onset of most recent before spitting the bit at the half. Back in for a tag today, and Jersey Joe gets on this one who's making her first turf attempt. #5 BAY DAWN is back in the Calvo barn today ( with whom he has a win and a 2nd at double digit odds ) and ships down from the Spa off a bad effort. Value should be there,  #2 TOO HOLLYWOOD will be in front for as long as her little legs'll take her, and you simply can't argue with the recent body of work; a must include on all your tickets, vertical and horizontal.  OFF TURF: 1-4-8-1A(MTO)-2  BEATABLE FAVORITE: Not sure why the #4 LADY LIANA is the morning line chalk here, as the numbers simple don't match up to a couple of others; passing. NOTE: AS OF 11:49, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #7 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race 3-

1.Dr Ruthless

2.Registrada

3.Expect Some Drama

#4 DR RUTHLESS has a couple of fair works for the career opener today, but this outfit is fairly proficient with 2YO maiden firsters in dirt sprints ( 3-10, $2.78 ROI ). Winless jockey tempers the enthusiasm, but we'll take a shot. #1 REGISTRADA has been doing okay in the A.M., and brings in tow a health 368 Tomlinson at the distance; Rudy can always have them ready. #7 EXPECT SOME DRAMA draws nicely for the curtain riser, and although this isn't Cibelli's forte', we'll toss underneath.

 

Race 4-

1.Bluegrass Genius

2.Idon'tknogoaskanni

3.Wellspring Legacy

To me, it looks like only one of two can win this race. #8 BLUEGRASS GENIUS has been alternating tactics in her last quintet, the most recent of which resulted in a trouncing against open claimers. There is sun on the horizon, however, as Farro is a tasty 3 for 7 when halving her bottom level stock off 9-18 day breaks, and putting them in a dirt route ( $6.37 ROI ). Filly is 2 for 5 on the brown stuff, and just 2 for 15 elsewhere; Bobblehead rides. #1 IDON'TKNOGOASKANNI has caused me fits on the keyboard this summer, but descendant of a horse I have a soft spot for ( The Daddy ) has been climbing up the Beyer ladder while ascending in class. Gets a positive ride change and is a deserving favorite. #5 WELLSPRING LEGACY as bad as any to round out the top 3.

 

Race 5-

1.Ride This Train

2.Big Daddy B

3.Noreen

#6 RIDE THIS TRAIN has been up the track in last two, but switches to the grass today, and Paco is encouraged enough to stick around. Dam was 4 for 19 going long on the lawn, sire was 3 for 3 on the green stuff, and this one is a full to a 1-3 turf router. Hmmmm..... #1 BIG DADDY B  ( dig it ) is seemingly rounding into good form these days, despite the awkward onset in most recent outing. Overall numbers are solid, though not eye popping, and this one rates a shot in a hum drum affair. #7 NOREEN has zip, gets in light, and drops to her lowest level yet. Upset chance.  OFF TURF: 4-6-1-2-8

 

Race 6-

1.Supah Jalene

2.Ocean Boulevard

3.Exclusive Sarah

#9 SUPAH JALENE hasn't been better than 5th in her last four starts, but hope is not lost today, as 9% Pierce is a whopping 6-17 ( 35% ) with a monstrous ROI when putting any dirt router up for sale in the 9-19 day range. Plummets to lowest level to date, an gets sharp bug in the saddle. Never thought I'd see the day when there'd be a positive Pat Quick Formulator angle, but here it is with the #6 OCEAN BOULEVARD: 20-45 day L/O, dirt, 50% class drop---2 for 3 ( $17 & $6 ), and the third horse finished 3rd by 1+ lengths at 22-1. ; nicely spotted. #11 EXCLUSIVE SARAH displayed excellent speed when a well, well, clear 2nd at this level last time out, and obviously merits inclusion in this allotment.

 

Race 7-

1.Pretty Nauty

2.Pirradazis

3.Breakeven Analysis

#3 PRETTY NAUTY ( sic ) hasn't been in action since Hector was a pup, but was loving life on the sod way back when, putting together a nifty 5:1-2-0 record over the stuff before entering the H.W.P. ( Horsewitness Protection Program ). This one has been working lights out for the return, which is no surprise given the connections. #6 PIRRADAZIS is most definitely a nibbler, given that 14:1-6-1 ledger on the turf, so the underneath portion of the exacta seems ideal; don't lend too much credence to that next out winner in last, as it was against 15K foes ( 72 Beyer ). #1 BREAKEVEN ANALYSIS, 4:0-3-0 when breaking from the innermost 2 posts, seems sensible for the show dough.  OFF TURF: 1-8-5-4-3

 

Race 8-

1.Strike Bold

2.Battle Tested

3.Splitter

Our 3,333'rd race analysis for Saratoga Bets ( yowsa ) is a total head scratcher, so we'll simply dive into the DRF Formulator stats, and use the top three in descending order. The categories are ( I feel like Alex Trebek ! ) 13-26 days, dirt, sprint, mid level claimers ( other horses were fit in accordingly but didn't make the cut ). #6 STRIKE BOLD--Breen goes from 18 to 33% with a $2.03 ROI. #4 BATTLE TESTED--O'Connell goes from 14 to 22% with a $2.65 ROI. #3 SPLITTER--Claudio goes from 18 to 20% with a $2.30 ROI.  Truth be told, if you used the "all" button this race, I wouldn't bop you with my Racing Form.

 

Race 9-

1.Trish's Wish

2.Get Air Lex

3.Shimmering Cara

I thought this race would be a good time to give a brief synopsis as to how I handicap a race. Basically, I utilize figures from a horses' last three races, then re-analyze those that I feel could have a chance to win. My next step is to take those particular horses, and dive down some DRF Formulator rabbit holes to see if there is something juicier to come up with. In today's 9th race, ( from a figures standpoint ) we give 3 runners a solid chance, so we'll take those three in our rollers and add some cayenne to the mix. #4 TRISH'S WISH has only beaten one home in her last two starts, but was duking it out a bit up front, and perhaps she was a bit overmatched in the stakes prior to that. Grey mare simply sired in the 6/27 outing, and 9% Carroll more than doubles that rate with turf sprinters in the 12-24 day range ( $2.18 ROI ) and we'll bite at a price. #5 GET AIR LEX disappointed a bit in first try against winners, but maiden breaker was snazzy, and Plesa has a $2.02 ROI with runners fitting the above categories. #7 SHIMMERING CARA is going up, up, up the Beyer ladder, and Pompay has a $2.94 ROI with runners under these circumstances.  OFF TURF: 1-7-3-2-8

 

Race 10-

1.Subtle Intent

2.Giddy

3.Careful Choice

#1 SUBTLE INTENT wire to wire for my man, Larry. #3 GIDDY drops to lowest level yet today, makes just her 2nd start on a fast surface, and possesses a slight maturity edge over our top choice. You may wanna include in some of your rollers should our top choice get the staggers late ( these are cheap maidens, after all ). #8 CAREFUL CHOICE rates a longshot's chance to spice up the exotics off the long respite.

 

Monmouth Stats  ( Current ):     72-305  ( $469.60 ) Beatable Favorites:     7-19 ( 36.8% ) Favorite's Win %:132-305 ( 43.3% )


Travers Day Stats(2015 Final):      3-13    ( $29.80 )  Beatable Favorite:       0-0   (   0.0% ) Favorite's Win %:  6-13   ( 46.2% ) +/- : +16.5% against a 15.0% takeout

Santa Anita Stats(2015 Final):     67-290 ( $462.00 ) Beatable Favorites:   18-39 ( 46.2% ) Favorite's Win %:141-334( 42.2% ) +/-:  -20.4% against a 15.0% takeout

Belmont Stats     (2015 Final):       2-13     ($25.90 ) Beatable Favorites:      1-6  ( 16.7% ) Favorite's Win %:   2-13  ( 15.4% ) +/-:   even    against a  15.0% takeout

Pimlico Stats       (2015 Final):       1-14      ( $6.80 ) Beatable Favorites:      3-3  ( 100%  ) Favorite's Win %:   5-14  ( 35.7% ) +/-:  -75.7% against an 18.0% takeout

Churchill Stats     (2015 Final):      2-25    (  $15.40 ) Beatable Favorites:      2-4  ( 50.0% ) Favorite's Win %;   6-25  ( 24.0% ) +/-:  -69.0% against a 17.5% takeout

Keeneland Stats  (2015 Final):    39-139  ( $278.00 ) Beatable Favorites:     3-13 ( 23.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 56-139 ( 40.3% ) +/-:   even   against a 16.0% takeout

Gulfstream Stats (2015 Final): 163-848 ( $1,467.70 ) Beatable Favorites : 31-104 ( 29.8% ) Favorite's Win %: 330-848 (38.9%) +/-: -13.5% against a 17.0% takeout


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, and Travers full days (Above Churchill, Pimlico, and Belmont included in dirt and cumulative numbers):

( 2014-2015 Final ): 22-127   ( $260.40 ) Beatable Favorites: 10-27 ( 37.0% ) Favorite's Win %: 43-127  ( 33.9% )  +/-: +2.5% against a 16.9% takeout                          


Poly Tracks 2014   (All Final): 83-557     ( $789.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-67   ( 22.4% ) Favorite's Win %: 160 -576  ( 27.8% ) +/-: -29.3% against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks 2014-5 (All Final): 524-2463 ($4,454.90) Beatable Favorites : 89-272 ( 32.7% ) Favorite's Win%: 909- 2526 ( 36.0% ) +/-: -9.6%  against a 17.0% takeout


Cumulative Stats (All Final): 607-3020 ($5,244.10) Beatable Favorites : 104-339 ( 30.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 1069-3102 ( 34.5% ) +/-: -12.8% against a 16.5% takeout


 MonmouthParkBio