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We had one of our best days to date here, tying a high for us in wins, as we went 12:6-2-1 on the day here, and 13:3-1-0 for our Travers Day writeup, showing a flat bet profit in both.

We seem to really bear down on the biggest days ( Breeders' Cup, Triple Crown Weekends, Travers Day ), as we're now a cumulative 22-127 ( $260.40 ) on those days.

Let's finish up the week strong.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


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Monmouth Park - 8/30

 

Race 1-

1.Julia Chibouli

2.D'Wild Kiss

3.Easy Landing

#3 JULIA CHIBOULI showed good speed in both starts to date, but spit the bit rather readily in both. Willard now drops this grey gal while adding the eye cups, and both him and I are hoping that will be the magic panacea. #1 D'WILD KISS improved by leaps and bounds when sliding in 8 post positions in 2nd start, and moves in a bit once again. Late foal may be figuring it out and is a must include. #6 EASY LANDING is quickly becoming "that" kind of horse, with 6 minor placings from a dozen starts, and is logical for the show dough.  NOTE: AS OF 11:44, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #5 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race 2-

1.Imperial Cut

2.Veruska

3.Border

#2 IMPERIAL CUT got smacked around a bit at the onset of last, but still came along nicely for 3rd. You're not gonna get 74 to 1 today, but the offering should still be honest enough. #5 VERUSKA threw in a head scratcher last time out, but if you can look past that a bit, the outing prior was decent enough; gets huge jockey switch. #1 BORDER was compelled to do something very difficult a half'a month ago---close from the rail. Beat more than half the field home that day, and bug boy from big run two starts back gets the assignment once again.  OFF TURF: 3-4-2-5-7

 

Race 3-

1.Hadassa Babe

2.Daddy's Crazy Girl

3.Hay Hay Sadie Rae

Taking a bit of a shot with the #4 HADASSA BABE here, so I won't begrudge anyone using my 2nd choice here with equal fervor. I know that this gal has lost by an average of 20 1/4 lengths in her last quartet, but in terrible maiden races such as these, I allow myself to go anywhere in the PP's, and this gal had a couple of decent routes way back when. Like I said, I just have a feeling something silly may happen here.  If the race holds to form, however, then it's #6 DADDY'S CRAZY GIRL's to lose. Tactical speed, big fig's and a switch to Linda Blair make this gal tougher than shoe leather. #3 HAY HAY SADIE RAE just about doubled her Beyer figure when going a distance of ground for the first time recently, but not enamored with the switch to a cold pilot.  NOTE: AS OF 11:47, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #5 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race 4-

1.House Red

2.Ticket To Riches

3.Ka Buki Rose

#5 HOUSE RED goes two turns on the dirt for the first time, and as the dirt sprints were okay, and the turf routes were okay, why shouldn't she do good in a dirt route ? Positive jock switch should help in breaking the string of four straight "6's". #1 TICKET TO RICHES got a favorable pace setup, and a golden rail ride when grabbing the diploma at this trip 2 weeks ago, and 398 TOMLINSON confirms that it was no fluke. #3 KA BUKI ROSE was sans jockey in 7/28 start ( "I'm free ! I'm free at last !!" ), but apparently neither are worse for wear, as she's since fired off a sharp move, and Serpa climbs back aboard. Drops to lowest level yet today.

 

Race 5-

1.Fakery

2.Huachuca

3.Hazy Daisy

In my eyes this is just a two horse affair. #7 FAKERY has been regressing a bit in her last two, but I love the fact that there's no scary drop yet. Connections claimed this one for 40 big ones back in June, and you couldn't fault them for dropping back to that level, or even a tad lower. Ayuso back aboard, and this duo is 2:1-1-0 together. #5 HUACHUCA has gone up, up the Beyer ladder, the last of which was as well clear runner up finish at this level. Logical 1-2- player. #2 HAZY DAISY has speed, the ril, and gets in light; could hang on for a piece.

 

Race 6-

1.Elmra

2.Lost In Success

3.Midnightinpositano

#1 ELMRA was claimed 3 back off the easiest kind of win, but then showed diddlypoo in subsequent starts at slightly elevated levels. The fact that front bandages were added in the last start is a touch disconcerting, but anything close to that winning effort gets this one's photograph taken once again. #2 LOST IN SUCCESS is back in with beaten claimers today after offering little resistance against open foes last time out. Bullet work 5 days ago signals that the speed is still there for new trainer Vitali, and is a threat on the dropdown to the basement. #8 MIDNIGHTINPOSITANO will be on the engine early, and there's no palpable reason why she can't repeat off the most recent win.  NOTE: AS OF 11:50, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #6 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race 7-

1.Celtic Lord

2.How You

3.Spanish Armada

#9 CELTIC LORD closed with a rush just a week ago to lose by a hair, and apparently not only are the connections not worried about the quick turnaround, but the unproven grass pedigree doesn't have them sweating either. According to the morning line odds, you're still getting a fair price, so we'll bite. #1 HOW YOU, claimed off an even 4th six weeks ago, is brought back at that same level today, and while Navarro is obviously a miracle trainer in all categories, the added plus here is that the 2nd and 3rd place finishers both won their next starts. #5 SPANISH ARMADA has been steady, if not spectacular in her eight to date, and you can do a lot worse than her in the bottom rung of the exotics.  OFF TURF: 1-5-9-4-6

 

Race 8-

1.My Buddy Zip

2.Sunshine Sandy

3.Cynthia's Fury

#6 MY BUDDY ZIP has top flight speed, two wins over the track, and the best last race number---book it. #5 SUNSHINE SANDY weakened a bit in first attempt vs. winners, but that can be forgiven, if not understood. Serpa's best hope aboard this one today is to capitulate the lead to our top choice, and rate just off her flank. #1 CYNTHIA'S FURY has been up the track in her last two, but overall body of work ain't terrible, so we'll toss this one in to spice up the tri; Lanerie slated to ride, but he moved his tack from 'Toga to Ellis the other day, so check the early changes.  NOTE: AS OF 12:13, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #2 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race 9-

1.Monkey Chunky

2.Killer Crossover

3.Tree Fire

#1 MONKEY CHUNKY has the ultimate no-no in past performance running lines---vanned off, followed by a long layoff, followed by a next to last finish. This one is not without hope, however, as the splits he cut in the comebacker were pretty quick, and way back when, there were a few decent tries at this trip. I'm not really in love with this race tho, so passing wouldn't be a mortal sin. #3 KILLER CROSSOVER has hit the board in three straight--two of them on the turf, and now is halved in claiming price. Deserving favorite. If you swipe a Crayola through the off the turf event of the #2 TREE FIRE, then you're looking at a trio of improving running lines on the sod. Phil Scott ain't much trainer, but this one belongs here.  OFF TURF: 5-3-1-11(MTO)-12(MTO)  NOTE: AS OF 12:14, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #6 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race 10-

1.Anchor Down

2.Valid

3.Bradester

One of the big races of the meet is today's feature, the Grade 3 $150,000 Phillip Iselin, named after the former chairman of Monmouth, as well as being the former president of the Jets. His mini bio is right here https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philip_H._Iselin  . #3 ANCHOR DOWN has been using bettors' money for kindling in 2015, going just 1 for 4 as the chalk, all at odds of 3-2 or less. Pletcher must have something up his sleeve, however, as not only does he ship this one down from the Spa, but he's entrusting the grey colt with going 2 turns for the first time. 4-1 and Paco ? Hmmmmm.... After winning 5 of 10 in 2014, #2 VALID ( sans nice Beyers ) just doesn't appear the same horse to me, going 1-8 this year and looking like he's lost just a bit off his fastball. Nonetheless, his gameness is admirable, and we'll leave in the mix. #5 BRADESTER has won two straight here, both in impressive fashion, and must be used in all rolling bets.

 

Race 11-

1.Billy Dedalus

2.Royal Stage

3.Short Iron

#8 BILLY DEDALUS has finished in the back half of the field her last three times out, but the adjusted number of 59 just before those is standing out to me somewhat. A sign of confidence that the barn is actually stepping this one up a bit, and Juarez has held his own since losing the bug. #7 ROYAL STAGE has been a bit of a fringe player to this point in her career, but Thompson saw enough promise in her to drop off $22,000 in the racing office for her a half month ago, and enlists the hot bug. #6 SHORT IRON had an extremely awkward running line in last ( 2-4-7-4-2 ), so right off the bat she deserves a chance with Lopez taking over. This is her 4th different jock, at her 4th different track, at her 3rd different class level. Perhaps tab for her next start here should she not get it done today ?  OFF TURF: 6-3-1-7-11(MTO)

 

Monmouth Stats  ( Current ):     72-305  ( $469.60 ) Beatable Favorites:     7-19 ( 36.8% ) Favorite's Win %:132-305 ( 43.3% )


Travers Day Stats(2015 Final):      3-13    ( $29.80 )  Beatable Favorite:       0-0   (   0.0% ) Favorite's Win %:  6-13   ( 46.2% ) +/- : +16.5% against a 15.0% takeout

Santa Anita Stats(2015 Final):     67-290 ( $462.00 ) Beatable Favorites:   18-39 ( 46.2% ) Favorite's Win %:141-334( 42.2% ) +/-:  -20.4% against a 15.0% takeout

Belmont Stats     (2015 Final):       2-13     ($25.90 ) Beatable Favorites:      1-6  ( 16.7% ) Favorite's Win %:   2-13  ( 15.4% ) +/-:   even    against a  15.0% takeout

Pimlico Stats       (2015 Final):       1-14      ( $6.80 ) Beatable Favorites:      3-3  ( 100%  ) Favorite's Win %:   5-14  ( 35.7% ) +/-:  -75.7% against an 18.0% takeout

Churchill Stats     (2015 Final):      2-25    (  $15.40 ) Beatable Favorites:      2-4  ( 50.0% ) Favorite's Win %;   6-25  ( 24.0% ) +/-:  -69.0% against a 17.5% takeout

Keeneland Stats  (2015 Final):    39-139  ( $278.00 ) Beatable Favorites:     3-13 ( 23.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 56-139 ( 40.3% ) +/-:   even   against a 16.0% takeout

Gulfstream Stats (2015 Final): 163-848 ( $1,467.70 ) Beatable Favorites : 31-104 ( 29.8% ) Favorite's Win %: 330-848 (38.9%) +/-: -13.5% against a 17.0% takeout


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, and Travers full days (Above Churchill, Pimlico, and Belmont included in dirt and cumulative numbers):

( 2014-2015 Final ): 22-127   ( $260.40 ) Beatable Favorites: 10-27 ( 37.0% ) Favorite's Win %: 43-127  ( 33.9% )  +/-: +2.5% against a 16.9% takeout                                  


Poly Tracks 2014   (All Final): 83-557     ( $789.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-67   ( 22.4% ) Favorite's Win %: 160 -576  ( 27.8% ) +/-: -29.3% against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks 2014-5 (All Final): 524-2463 ($4,454.90) Beatable Favorites : 89-272 ( 32.7% ) Favorite's Win%: 909- 2526 ( 36.0% ) +/-: -9.6%  against a 17.0% takeout


Cumulative Stats (All Final): 607-3020 ($5,244.10) Beatable Favorites : 104-339 ( 30.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 1069-3102 ( 34.5% ) +/-: -12.8% against a 16.5% takeout


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