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Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


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Monmouth Park - 8/29

 

Race 1-

1.Looking At U Kid

2.Pico

3.Hangry

#7 LOOKING AT U KID ( 392 Tomlinson ) has moderate works for debut, but draws well, and this jockey/trainer combo is 2 for 4 on the stand. Timid choice in a wide open baby dash. #4 PICO has been timed with a calendar in the mornings, but the "Chub" horses have been doing very well of late, and although he's a J-bred against open foes, we like the fact that a sold rider gets the call for a low percentage barn. Employing the "Diamond in the Rough" theory with the #5 HANGRY, as there's a sharp half mile breeze ( 48 flat, 4th of 60 on 7/5 ) amidst a slew of moderate ones. Macho Uno/Tizonow top and bottom may mean that this one'll require more ground down the road, but we'll permit a suck up 3rd today.

 

Race 2-

1.O K Lefty

2.Proven Warrior

3.Hop Skip and Away

#1 O K LEFTY has been alternating changes in tactics in his last quartet between rating and sending, ( not quite sure if that's intentional ), but drops 4 pounds today, and he may appreciate the break on his back as well as the switch to a hungry pilot. Another meek choice in another wide open race. #2 PROVEN WARRIOR put forth a good effort in first try off the claim fro DiMauro, and may just be a pocket rocket with the cozier draw today. #3 HOP SKIP AND AWAY has beaten just one in his last two tries, but had 2 wins and 2 seconds in the quintet prior to that, and has a 28 for 50 ITM rate at The Shore; one last chance to show something for me.

 

Race 3-

1.Canal Street

2.Wedding Savior

3.Rakete

#8 CANAL STREET drops down to a level not seen in over 20 months for "Greatest Trainer Ever" Ness, who took off the front wraps last time out prior to the weak 5th place finish. Take a peek in the paddock today to see if they're re-affixed for this 7YO gelding who is a snazzy 20:4-8-5 at this trip. #2 WEDDING SAVIOR was stupidly sent out winging last week beneath Rispoli, who's properly given the boot today by new trainer Murphy. Blinkers are instantly added, in hopes of settling this one down. Likes this distance and has a big chance to rebound if able to relax a bit. #5 RAKETE burned some bread in latest, but is traditionally a nibbler by nature, so we'll toss underneath.

 

Race 4-

1.Where's That Cat

2.Roundupthelute

3.One Buck Roma

#1 WHERE'S THAT CAT has a big fig, speed, the rail, a good send pilot, and is 3 for 8 at 6 panels; K.I.S.S. #2 ROUNDUPTHELUTE was claimed for a nickel 2 starts back ( off a win ), then the new outfit tripled him him claiming price which actually resulted in a decent 3rd place finish. Obvious factor being dropped to an intermediate level today. #6 ONE BUCK ROMA drops to his lowest level yet today, and switches back to what is most assuredly his preferred surface. Chance for the lower rungs of the exotics, despite jockey being on the duck.

 

Race 5-

1.Very Colorful

2.Pepon

3.Super Spender

#2 VERY COLORFUL has steadily climbed up the Beyer ladder in his last four, ( three of which were @ this dx. ), and has earned a win and two seconds along the way. You have to admire the fact that he seems like a new animal since Lasix was removed from his system, as well as the fact that he exits a super Key Race ( 6 finishers have amassed a 3-2-1 record in their next starts ).   #3 PEPON ( cross entered in today's 9th at Philadelphia ) showed the tiniest bit of a "Z" pattern in most recent when losing 2 lengths from the quarter to the half, then gaining that same amount from that point to the finish. Bit of a price play. #5 SUPER SPENDER was a clear 2nd when missing by just a neck against similar over at Delaware 7 weeks ago, and that one "blemish" is the only thing keeping him from a perfect 3 for 3 record at this trip. Came home in 11 3/5th's that day, and is obviously logical once again.

 

Race 6-

1.Get Creative

2.Category

3.Five Cents

#1 GET CREATIVE takes yet another drop down the ladder for Rudy today ( uh oh ) but has good speed and slides in from the 7 hole to the rail here. Colt has crashed the super in 6 of 7 dirt races, and I s'pose that we have to use---but with some trepidation, for sure. #7 CATEGORY cuts back from two turns to one today ( a move that's worked once out of the two times attempted ) and is another dropping to a career low here, but based on that 20:1-8-1 record over a fast track, we feel the #2 spot is justifiable. #5 FIVE CENTS rounds out the top 3.

 

Race 7-

1.Best Actor

2.Kitten In May

3.Call First

#6 BEST ACTOR has superior numbers, fer sure, but spit the bit at even money rather readily in last, for no palpable reason whatsoever. It's been a long time between drinks for this one ( nearly 3 years ), but we'll use on top as we think that Paco made a premature move in said start, and in my eyes the switch to Trevor today is an upgrade. #10 KITTEN IN MAY is another receiving a pilot upgrade today ( to Abel Castellano ), and ran an even 4th vs. slightly tougher when last seen. Should be no worse than 1-2-3. #3 CALL FIRST will be somewhat overlooked in the betting, coming from Penn National and all, but how can we possibly look past that 5:3-1-0 turf record ? We can't. Therefore we'll be leaving in all our rollers.  OFF TURF: 2-6-10-7-4

 

Race 8-

1.Blings Express

2.Que Facil

3.Coach's Challenge

We called on the #5 BLINGS EXPRESS a few times while covering Gulfstream this winter, and the grey gelding always seems to fire his best shot. Very popular at the claim box up here, including a recent purchase from my good friend and best Twitter follow, Kevin Schnoor ( follow him---you'll laugh your butt off ! ). This one is in good form, and gets in at 115 lb.'s, which he hasn't toted in over 3 years. Solid. #1 QUE FACIL didn't have an "easy" go of it in return off a 2 1/2 month break in Philadelphia ( "blocked, steadied" ) but got 20% of the purse anyway. Chestnut won by daylight in 2nd off the bench attempt this spring, which is nice, and Acosta, a strong rider is slated to ride. #4 COACH'S CHALLENGE was duking it out down on the inside in the same last race as our top choice, and some horses just don't dig that. Giving him another shot with a less strenuous journey.

 

Race 9-

1.My Enigma

2.Hudson Miracle

3.Corinthian Summer

#6 MY ENIGMA gets the hat trick today. #5 HUDSON MIRACLE has run 2nd in three straight, and when you factor that in with this one burning money in 5 of his last 6, it's all we need to place in the bottom half of the exacta. #1 CORINTHIAN SUMMER is about as game a mid level claimer as you can find, having hit the board in 8 of 10 ( with one of the two defeats being by just a length ), and you can do a lot worse than by keeping this one in the cake batter.  OFF TURF: 1-7-10-11(MTO)-9

 

Race 10-

1.Unruly Heir

2.Bat Cave

3.Bank Fraud

#8 UNRULY HEIR has top notch speed,  steadily increasing speed figures, and is racing at 5 less pounds that he ever has before with the hot apprentice assigned. Likey likey. I love the comment line of the last start for the #9 BAT CAVE ( "Dug in" ), as that says something a little more about this 44 time starter than any Beyer could. Don't get me wrong, the number came back good, and Cibelli appears to have made a decent 5K claim two starts back. #1A BANK FRAUD got through the maiden ranks in a big way when winning by a pole on August 9th, and doing it in front running fashion. Yes, there are some speedy lines on the page, but at times there is a world of difference between maiden claiming speed, and that of winners. Leaving in.

 

Race 11-

1.Photo Call ( Ire )

2.Means Well

3.Granny Mc's Kitten

Feature race of the day is the Grade 3 Violet, going two turns on the lawn.  #3 PHOTO CALL (IRE) ran a solid 3rd behind a next out winner in a $100,000 stakes at Belmont on the 3rd of July, earning an adjusted 92.3 which makes this gal very tough in this spot. Motion not a fan of all things Monmouth this summer, but it's about the horse after all, y'know ? Nice training job by Goldberg with the #2 MEANS WELL as he's brought her along steadily since the debut 2 years ago. Numbers are okay and Pimento Loaf climbs back aboard, which is fine as he's 1 for 2 in tandem with this gal. #6 GRANNY MC'S KITTEN will undoubtedly be bet because of the connections, but keep this in mind, since last spring she's 4:3-1-0 in allowance company and 4:0-0-2 in stakes company.

 

Race 12-

1.Rocket Man Richie

2.Hunter Grey

3.Little Tom

Watching an Elton John concert on the tube while in the middle of a marathon writing session tonight, so how can I not go with the #1 ROCKET MAN RICHIE here ? I know, hunch bets are a no-no, but this one just lays over this group in a myriad of ways: Speed, back class, numbers, and only win came from the wood. Hopefully "I'm still standing" after this one ! #7 HUNTER GREY has been Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde in his last septet, so we're pinning our hopes to this grey gelding reverting to his big effort in the penultimate race. #9 LITTLE TOM will attempt to do the killer crossover and engage our top choice right off the bat, but has lost ground in 12 of his 13 starts, and we're not uuber confident in his ability to put away our top choice. Leaving on the lower rungs.

 

Monmouth Stats  ( Current ):     62-282  ( $411.40 ) Beatable Favorites:     7-19 ( 36.8% ) Favorite's Win %:117-282 ( 41.5% )


Santa Anita Stats(2015 Final):     67-290 ( $462.00 ) Beatable Favorites:   18-39 ( 46.2% ) Favorite's Win %:141-334( 42.2% ) +/-:  -20.4% against a 15.0% takeout

Belmont Stats     (2015 Final):       2-13     ($25.90 ) Beatable Favorites:      1-6  ( 16.7% ) Favorite's Win %:   2-13  ( 15.4% ) +/-:   even    against a  15.0% takeout

Pimlico Stats       (2015 Final):       1-14      ( $6.80 ) Beatable Favorites:      3-3  ( 100%  ) Favorite's Win %:   5-14  ( 35.7% ) +/-:  -75.7% against an 18.0% takeout

Churchill Stats     (2015 Final):      2-25    (  $15.40 ) Beatable Favorites:      2-4  ( 50.0% ) Favorite's Win %;   6-25  ( 24.0% ) +/-:  -69.0% against a 17.5% takeout

Keeneland Stats  (2015 Final):    39-139  ( $278.00 ) Beatable Favorites:     3-13 ( 23.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 56-139 ( 40.3% ) +/-:   even   against a 16.0% takeout

Gulfstream Stats (2015 Final): 163-848 ( $1,467.70 ) Beatable Favorites : 31-104 ( 29.8% ) Favorite's Win %: 330-848 (38.9%) +/-: -13.5% against a 17.0% takeout


All Triple Crown & Breeders' Cup full days ( Above Churchill, Pimlico, and Belmont included in dirt and cumulative numbers ) :

( 2014-2015 Final ): 19-115   ( $230.60 ) Beatable Favorites: 10-27 ( 37.0% ) Favorite's Win %: 37-115  ( 32.2% )  +/-: +0.1% against a 17.0% takeout                                  


Poly Tracks 2014   (All Final): 83-557     ( $789.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-67   ( 22.4% ) Favorite's Win %: 160 -576  ( 27.8% ) +/-: -29.3% against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks 2014-5 (All Final): 521-2450 ($4,425.10) Beatable Favorites : 89-272 ( 32.7% ) Favorite's Win%: 903- 2513 ( 35.9% ) +/-: -9.5%  against a 17.0% takeout


Cumulative Stats (All Final): 604-3007 ($5,214.30) Beatable Favorites : 104-339 ( 30.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 1063-3089 ( 34.4% ) +/-: -13.3% against a 16.6% takeout


 MonmouthParkBio