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Decent day Sunday, with a couple of decently priced winners, including a nice $10 score on a 47% winning Formulator stat !

However, we ended the week with a punch to the gut, as our 34-1 top choice in the finale missed by a lip ( ugh ) to a head swiveling Paco. The only saving grace in that was we had the $241 exacta reverse.

Big doings this week, as we'll be pulling double duty ( like that famous baseball player, "Double Duty" Radcliffe  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ted_Radcliffe , who should probably be in the Hall of Fame ), as we're covering the entire Travers Day card, in addition to our regular Monmouth duties.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None      Play of the Day: Race 1 - #5 Brother Chub


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Monmouth Park - 8/28

 

Race 1-

1.Brother Chub

2.First on a Roll

3.Winds of Peace

The "Hey Chub" progeny have been positively killing it here of late, and we feel that the #5 BROTHER CHUB will add to that roll with an easy score in the weeks' opener. Homebred has big figs and takes a humongoid drop in class, and should win by daylight. As sometimes happens in races with open length winners, a price will occasionally suck up for 2nd, and the #3 FIRST ON A ROLL is our candidate for that today. Yeah, the oh-23 record is grim, but all 3 placings occurred right here, and has never gotten in this light in a dirt sprint. #2 WINDS OF PEACE lost by a deck of cards in career opener, but Boniface runner adds blinkers and slides down a few pegs.  NOTE: AS OF 12:15, DUE TO  LATE SCRATCH, THE #7 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race 2-

1.Divine Child

2.Gypsy Baron

3.Allstar

#2 DIVINE CHILD, a well traveled 7 year old gelding ( you don't often see runners with Belmont, Aqueduct, Philadelphia, Monmouth, Finger Lakes, Gulfstream, Penn National, Santa Anita, Del Mar, Hollywood, and Fairplex on their resume's. Geez, two of those tracks are even now defunct. ), but this fella is still in decent form. Local ledger is good ( 2 for 5 ) as well as the numbers at the distance ( 4 for 10 ). Switches back to a journeyman today, and is 2 for 2 at this level or slightly lower. #4 GYPSY BARON can rate or send, and although his overall body of work is good, is winless this year; leaving underneath. #7 ALLSTAR sheds the hood for Alexander, who's having a fine meet ( 11:4-0-3 ) and has hit the board in 5 of 7. Sensible exotics player.

 

Race 3-

1.Southhampton Pride

2.Kennesaw Pride

3.Wildcat Runner

While at  first glance it may appear that this turf dash is a crapshoot, but there's most definitely a horse worth hugging here. The #4 SOUTHHAMPTON PRIDE, recently becoming a member of the "40/40" club, after running over a 40 in his debut, then getting trounced by 40 next time out, has some excellent turf pedigree in the family tree. This one is a half to a 7 for 13 turf sprinter that earned over $284,000 at that trip, and is by champion sire Johannesburg, who was 8:6-0-1 at this game. I like the speed shown two back, as well as the fact that Bocachica sees fit to ride. #3 KENNESAW PRIDE completes our Pride/Pride exacta based on the huge dropdown and that the dam was 1-1 at this trip. #1 WILDCAT RUNNER, cross entered at Philadelphia tomorrow, has gaudy figures and must be used in all wagers. By the way, my joke of the day is that there is a runner sired by Freud & a runner dropped by Fraud here --- breed these 2 and name him "Phony Therapist"!  OFF TURF: 1-9(MTO)-8-4-6  NOTE: AS OF 12:17. DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #5 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race 4-

1.Discreet Concorde

2.Caroline's Comedy

3.Blind Devotion

#4 DISCREET CONCORDE drops to her lowest level yet in this, her first try on dirt. Over the last 5 years Pompay is 2 for 7 ( $11 & $11 ) with mid level dirt sprinters, 9 to 18 days. #3 CAROLINE'S COMEDY put it all together when winning by a pole in maiden breaker 13 days ago, and sometimes when that light bulb goes on, it can stay on; big shot. #5 BLIND DEVOTION won at first asking on 8/1, but was a little green in the lane. Tossing below in her first try against winners.

 

Race 5-

1.Fast Flying Rumor

2.Tell Tale Friend

3.Deterrent

#5 FAST FLYING RUMOR has been an in and outer for his last quartet of races, so of course today should be a goodie, right ? If only it were that simple. Nonetheless, this one lit up the tote board two back when being sent off as the longshot in a 5 horse field, then fought the good fight amidst some scorching fractions in most recent, before understandably giving way late. The winner from that heat got the job done next time out in a 60K stake ( 90 Beyer ) and you should get a very square price here once again. #1 TELL TALE FRIEND will be on the choo choo from jump street, but beware of the 7:1-3-0 record when breaking from the wood, compared to 31:6-10-3 from other posts. Trainer is 4:1-1-0 with new acquisitions going dirt to turf in sprints ( with the runner up finish being a near miss at 14-1 ). #6 DETERRENT is another speedy sort exiting the same race as our top choice, as Trevor is now this one's 3rd pilot from as many calls to the post.  OFF TURF: 3-1-4-2-6

 

Race 6-

1.Gorgeous Sunrise

2.Moon Vision

3.Media Star

This race is as easy as 1-2-3 ! #1 GORGEOUS SUNRISE has been a different horse since being switched back to the brown stuff in the last two, and as a matter of fact, 9% Carlesimo is a magnanimous 4-10 w/mid level Monmouth dirt sprinters in the 13-26 day range ( $6.47 ROI ). Live. #2 MOON VISION flopped in most recent, but was doing good things just before that, with 3 straight exacta finishes. Trombetta, a 17% conditioner on the norm, is 30% with the aforementioned categories in the 38-76 day range ( $2.05 ROI ). #3 MEDIA STAR gets in light and may sneak in for a share.

 

Race 7-

1.Big N Toasty

2.Be Nice or Leave

3.Dance With Gio

#7 BIG N TOASTY didn't show that usual front end speed last time out, and after he was steadied about 3 furlongs in, it was pretty much a fait accompli. Back into the claiming ranks today, where he's 3:1-1-1 lifetime, and we're willing to bet that Servis can right the ship with this one. #1 BE NICE OR LEAVE has fared pretty well after returning off nearly a 15 month break, and is 3-7 at this trip on the whole. #4 DANCE WITH GIO gets in light with the hot bug today ( 114 ) and is 10:3-1-3 when carrying 118 or less and 35:2-5-7 at 119 or more. Hmmmm.....   OFF TURF: 1-3-6-9-4

 

Race 8-

1.Al's Jubalee

2.Iamahandsome Man

3.This Cat Had Bling

#6 AL'S JUBALEE has plenty of speed to spare, and in his only other route attempt, he opened up by a dozen before folding the tent late. We'll give this one another shot, as the 15% outfit is a snazzy 4 for 11 when stretching out these types of dirt runners ( $4.90 ROI ). Sheds 7 pounds while maintaining the same jockey. #1 IAMAHANDSOME MAN ( Dig it. ) steps up a bit after beating up on cheaper 27 days back, and Ryan jacks up his 14% win rate to 21% with claimers that have won their last and are in a dirt route today. #3 THIS CAT HAD BLING has been a different equine since stretching out, as he's now 4:2-0-1 in routes, compared to just 6:0-1-2 when dashing; another shedding some poundage off the recent score.

 

Race 9-

1.Scottish Sweetie

2.Sweet Sandy

3.Red Letter

#1 SCOTTISH SWEETIE came along nicely to snag the runner up spot in 2nd off the layoff attempt earlier on this month, and may improve today with that under her belt, as well as the switch to McCarthy. #6 SWEET SANDY has done very little wrong in her three turf starts to date, winning 2 of them while placing in the other. Logical. #4 RED LETTER has speed to be a menace, and is a threat to repeat if able to procure an easy lead.  OFF TURF: 3-1-2-4-8  NOTE: AS OF 12:18, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #5 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race 10-

1.Banana Anna

2.Birch Creek Crazy

3.Channel Surfing

Positively awful race, with some positively awful trainer stats to match ( one conditioner has an ohhhhh-115 lifetime record ! ). The only thing we can sink our teeth into would be the #7 BANANA ANNA. This gal improved precipitously in her 2nd start, and Lopez, a 20% winner upon rolling out of bed in the morning, is 4 for 12 ( 33.3333333% ) with maiden claiming dirt sprinters that he owns, coming off 13-26 day layoffs with Serpa riding ( $5.23 ROI ). #4 BIRCH CREEK CRAZY had blinkers added in most recent, and sometimes these babies need a couple'a starts to become acclimated to a change of equipment. #1 CHANNEL SURFING hasn't shown much in her last two, but there are a few decent running lines on the resume', and in a field this bad, that's saying something.

 

Monmouth Stats  ( Current ):     60-272  ( $402.20 ) Beatable Favorites:     7-19 ( 36.8% ) Favorite's Win %:112-272 ( 41.2% )


Santa Anita Stats(2015 Final):     67-290 ( $462.00 ) Beatable Favorites:   18-39 ( 46.2% ) Favorite's Win %:141-334( 42.2% ) +/-:  -20.4% against a 15.0% takeout

Belmont Stats     (2015 Final):       2-13     ($25.90 ) Beatable Favorites:      1-6  ( 16.7% ) Favorite's Win %:   2-13  ( 15.4% ) +/-:   even    against a  15.0% takeout

Pimlico Stats       (2015 Final):       1-14      ( $6.80 ) Beatable Favorites:      3-3  ( 100%  ) Favorite's Win %:   5-14  ( 35.7% ) +/-:  -75.7% against an 18.0% takeout

Churchill Stats     (2015 Final):      2-25    (  $15.40 ) Beatable Favorites:      2-4  ( 50.0% ) Favorite's Win %;   6-25  ( 24.0% ) +/-:  -69.0% against a 17.5% takeout

Keeneland Stats  (2015 Final):    39-139  ( $278.00 ) Beatable Favorites:     3-13 ( 23.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 56-139 ( 40.3% ) +/-:   even   against a 16.0% takeout

Gulfstream Stats (2015 Final): 163-848 ( $1,467.70 ) Beatable Favorites : 31-104 ( 29.8% ) Favorite's Win %: 330-848 (38.9%) +/-: -13.5% against a 17.0% takeout


All Triple Crown & Breeders' Cup full days ( Above Churchill, Pimlico, and Belmont included in dirt and cumulative numbers ) :

( 2014-2015 Final ): 19-115   ( $230.60 ) Beatable Favorites: 10-27 ( 37.0% ) Favorite's Win %: 37-115  ( 32.2% )  +/-: +0.1% against a 17.0% takeout                                  


Poly Tracks 2014   (All Final): 83-557     ( $789.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-67   ( 22.4% ) Favorite's Win %: 160 -576  ( 27.8% ) +/-: -29.3% against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks 2014-5 (All Final): 521-2450 ($4,425.10) Beatable Favorites : 89-272 ( 32.7% ) Favorite's Win%: 903- 2513 ( 35.9% ) +/-: -9.5%  against a 17.0% takeout


Cumulative Stats (All Final): 604-3007 ($5,214.30) Beatable Favorites : 104-339 ( 30.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 1063-3089 ( 34.4% ) +/-: -13.3% against a 16.6% takeout


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