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We are officially in a mini slump, which is a darn shame because we really felt good about the last two cards. Regardless, we're still 90:29-14-11 over the last 8 cards, and hope to finish the week without our tail between our legs !


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


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Monmouth Park - 8/23

 

Race 1-

1.Lewis Henry

2.Goodnewswithatwist

3.P J's Magical Wink

#9 LEWIS HENRY hasn't shown much in three of his four since returning from exactly a year layoff, but the comment lines from those clunkers all have the word "Bumped" in there. What happened when he had a clean trip ? Well, just your standard $153 win, is all ! On the whole, 5% Berrios is 13% with with Monmouth based low level dirt sprinters returning in 10-20 days. The prices of those winners were $13, $11, $49, and the aforementioned bomb. Sheds 7 pounds today, and the stock goes up if the wraps come off. #5 GOODNEWSWITHATWIST hasn't been seen in six pages of a calendar, but drops to his lowest level yet today, and outfit is 2 for 4 at The Shore with new runners dashing in these bottom of the barrel events ( $9 & $23 ). #1A P J'S MAGICAL WINK gets a big jockey switch today, and is a threat if able to revert to the 2nd or 3rd effort back.

 

Race 2-

1.Jr.'s Chili Pepper

2.The Snickers Kid

3.Joey Whispers

Tight race here. #7 JR.'S CHILI PEPPER will give you as much indigestion as a chili pepper in fact would, in the stretch today, but don't reach for that Milk of Magnesia just yet. You see, there's a couple of factors working here that may soothe the tummy. Firstly, he sheds 4 pounds in getting the new bug ( 0-3 above 119 pounds --- 3-11 at 119 or less ). Secondly, he's back to his favorite stomping grounds, as he's 2 for 3 here, compared to 1 for 11 at other venues. And lastly, there's a little drop in class. C'MON WIRE !!! #4 THE SNICKERS KID is another with some early zip, but got a little sloppy ( "Poppy was a little sloppy !" ) late in the game recently; threat if able to outbreak the above. #10 JOEY WHISPERS had not tangible in last, but has a nice overall body of work, and you have to include.

 

Race 3-

1.Chubble Maker

2.Padre Graz

3.City's Fast Lane

#1 CHUBBLE MAKER has been a Steady Eddie thus far in his career, having hit the board in each and every start to date, while rising in both class and weight along the way. Gets a bit of relief in both departments today, as well as sliding inside, and there's actually a monster Formulator stat with this one as the 19% barn more than doubles that rate with 3rd off the L/O dirt sprinters ( 4-10, $4.64 ROI ). #2 PADRE GRAZ is a homebody, having made all his 14 starts right here, and cuts back to a sprint today, a move that 12% McBurney does well with ( 6-20 when doing it with local dirt runners in the 14-28 day range ). #5 CITY'S FAST LANE has been Jackie Davis' bread and butter horse in 2015, as the tandem is 4:3-0-1 together, and this one should give a good account of himself, regardless of the surface.

 

Race 4-

1.Lubango

2.Bea Wildcat

3.North Ocean

#1 LUBANGO won this race 15 days ago, and ended up in a different barn afterwards for his efforts. McCarthy sticks around, which is always a post-claim favorite angle of mine, and "Wonder Trainer" Ness, 28% day to day, is a mere 9-20 ( 45% ) first off the claim under these conditions ( 10-20 days ). 17 of those runners hit the board. #4 BEA WILDCAT beat cheaper in last and has speed to spare, and when you factor in that the barn goes from 19 to 33% with low level dirt routers ( 16-32 days ), it makes this one a major player. #7 NORTH OCEAN goes for the hat trick for Cibelli today, and over the last 5 years, she's 3 for 7 w/last out winners with this type ( 14-28 days ). If you were looking to go a little deeper in your rollers, feel free to toss in the #2 and the #3.

 

Race 5-

1.It's Macaroni

2.Mo Didn't Know

3.Girl From Glan

#6 IT'S MACARONI has crashed the tri in 6 of 7 turf sprints, and 24% Servis is a surreal 14 for 32 ( 44% ) with these mid level runners coming back off breaks of 22-44 days ( $3.16 ROI ). Sensible. #1 MO DIDN'T KNOW was all out to get up by a honker in a similar spot a month ago, so why would we leave her out today ? Kopaj doubles his overall 10% win rate with this caliber ( 20-40 day breaks ) and has a nice $3.45 ROI to go along with it. #7 GIRL FROM GLAN had a troubled onset to last, and had backers puking when he finished 3rd at 4-5 beneath Bravo. Paco takes over today, and this one is 5:2-1-1 over the strip.  OFF TURF: 10-3-6-7-5

 

Race 6-

1.Entertainer

2.Benny and Alex

3.Mo's in the House

#9 ENTERTAINER was a clear 2nd in debut and has worked a bullet since. Winner from that day ran 2nd next time out ( 72 ) and 4th place finisher won in his subsequent outing ( 54 on the sod ). Deserving favorite. Employing the "Diamond In The Rough" theory with the #7 BENNY AND ALEX, as there's a crisp 35 1/5th's breeze from the gate amidst a bevy of ordinary ones. Putting the #5 MO'S IN THE HOUSE in the mix based on him having the highest Tomlinson in the field at the distance ( 399 ).  NOTE: AS OF 10:43, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #4 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race 7-

1.Ten Coins

2.Native Strike

3.Mata Mua

#4 TEN COINS closed with a flourish to get up for second in her turf debut ( which was also her first start off an extended break ), and was flattered when the only three horses that have come out of that race to run again have: Finished 1st and 3rd ( in the same race ), and run 2nd ( the winner did so in allowance company ). Motion having a rotten meet, but there should be some value with this one. #3 NATIVE STRIKE just missed when "carried out" in recent try at Philadelphia Park ( refuse to call it "Parx" ) and has a overall body of work that merits inclusion. #5 MATA MUA hasn't seen the scene in half'a year, but obviously any Shug horse is eligible to improve st any time.  OFF TURF: 5-2-3-1-9

 

Race 8-

1.Sierra Ancha

2.Bull Ensign

3.Tinto Mesa

Yucky race. #3 SIERRA ANCHA hasn't hit the board in 8 straight, but his route figures are comparable to the others signed on, and 6% trainer more than triples that ( 3-16 ) with local dirt routers stretching out. Price play. #5 BULL ENSIGN stepped into the land of winners and did it with nice aplomb, when getting the job done at odds on 4 weeks ago; cross entered yesterday. #6 TINTO MESA apparently dug the addition of blinkers as he snagged the diploma by open lengths on 7/25. Sometimes an animal can regress a bit after a big effort coinciding with an equipment change, but sometimes the light stays on. ( Sometimes I have no clue. )

 

Race 9-

1.Perpetual Novena

2.My One And Only

3.Workerbee

#6 PERPETUAL NOVENA has blinkers added and stretches out to a route for the first time, a combo that's worked for Plesa three times in the six times he's tried it ( $3.50 ROI ).  The bug going on has me thinking send job. #3 MY ONE AND ONLY is in for a tag for the first time in 14 starts, and finished in the money in 4 of her 7 "firm" turf tries here; longshot chance. #9 WORKERBEE makes first start for Proctor, and finished a good 2nd in only attempt at this level a year ago.  OFF TURF:10-13(AE)-11-2-14(AE)

 

Race 10-

1.Let's Parlay

2.Wind Racer

3.Red Rei Rei

#4 LET'S PARLAY blitzed state bred foes in 2nd off the L/O deal three weeks back, and although she faces open company today, 14% Sacco is a lovely 8-24 ( 33.3333333% ) with 3rd off the bench dirt sprinters at Mth., and there's no shame in having McCarthy taking over for Paco. #2 WIND RACER was doing good things early on in the winter, but then apparently something went awry and she's since been transferred to the Ryan barn. $270,000 auction purchase may not be fully cranked in this spot, but you should probably leave in the mix just in case. #5 RED REI REI has the eye cups put on here, and they were most likely affixed for that bullet breeze last week; watch out.

 

Race 11-

1.Inchcape

2.Middleburg

3.Glenard ( GB )

Feature race today is the Grade 3 Cliffhanger for 100 big ones, and it's a compact, but competitive affair. You could basically coin flip my top two choices here, but I'll explain why I went the way I did in a bit. #5 INCHCAPE has fared decently in his first 3 starts against stakes company, and the amazing thing about this one is that he's only been favored in 1 of his 18 lifetime starts, despite having been 1-2-3 in 13 of them. Paco back on today. Obviously, the #1 MIDDLEBURG has comparable numbers to our top choice, but here's the reason I didn't put him upstairs: 0-4 when breaking from the innermost two posts, and 4-11 outside of that. Some horses just don't enjoy running covered up, and although we may include this chestnut in some rollers, it's with a touch of trepidation. #3 GLENARD (GB) has been got as a pistol for Graham, who's been as cold as an igloo; leaving underneath.  OFF TURF: 3-1-5-4-2

 

Race 12-

1.Celtic Lord

2.Way of the Warrior

3.Full Pads

#9 CELTIC LORD ( cross entered yesterday ) may have disliked the slop he toiled over in the career opener, but A.P. Indy and Unbridled in the family tree say that this one deserves a second chance ( don't we all ? ) over a fast track; encouraging that Ferrer sticks around. #4 WAY OF THE WARRIOR spit the bit rather readily in most recent, but blinkers were added that day, and they're instantly thrown in the garbage today. Slides down the ladder once again, and with his 4th different pilot in as many outings, it may be now or never time. #2 FULL PADS changed tactics completely in last, and versatility was rewarded with another runner up finish. Truth be told is that I wouldn't invest a lot of bread in this finale.

 

Monmouth Stats  ( Current ):     58-260  ( $383.20 ) Beatable Favorites:     7-19 ( 36.8% ) Favorite's Win %:108-260 ( 41.5% )


Santa Anita Stats(2015 Final):     67-290 ( $462.00 ) Beatable Favorites:   18-39 ( 46.2% ) Favorite's Win %:141-334( 42.2% ) +/-:  -20.4% against a 15.0% takeout

Belmont Stats     (2015 Final):       2-13     ($25.90 ) Beatable Favorites:      1-6  ( 16.7% ) Favorite's Win %:   2-13  ( 15.4% ) +/-:   even    against a  15.0% takeout

Pimlico Stats       (2015 Final):       1-14      ( $6.80 ) Beatable Favorites:      3-3  ( 100%  ) Favorite's Win %:   5-14  ( 35.7% ) +/-:  -75.7% against an 18.0% takeout

Churchill Stats     (2015 Final):      2-25    (  $15.40 ) Beatable Favorites:      2-4  ( 50.0% ) Favorite's Win %;   6-25  ( 24.0% ) +/-:  -69.0% against a 17.5% takeout

Keeneland Stats  (2015 Final):    39-139  ( $278.00 ) Beatable Favorites:     3-13 ( 23.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 56-139 ( 40.3% ) +/-:   even   against a 16.0% takeout

Gulfstream Stats (2015 Final): 163-848 ( $1,467.70 ) Beatable Favorites : 31-104 ( 29.8% ) Favorite's Win %: 330-848 (38.9%) +/-: -13.5% against a 17.0% takeout


All Triple Crown & Breeders' Cup full days ( Above Churchill, Pimlico, and Belmont included in dirt and cumulative numbers ) :

( 2014-2015 Final ): 19-115   ( $230.60 ) Beatable Favorites: 10-27 ( 37.0% ) Favorite's Win %: 37-115  ( 32.2% )  +/-: +0.1% against a 17.0% takeout                                  


Poly Tracks 2014   (All Final): 83-557     ( $789.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-67   ( 22.4% ) Favorite's Win %: 160 -576  ( 27.8% ) +/-: -29.3% against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks 2014-5 (All Final): 521-2450 ($4,425.10) Beatable Favorites : 89-272 ( 32.7% ) Favorite's Win%: 903- 2513 ( 35.9% ) +/-: -9.5%  against a 17.0% takeout


Cumulative Stats (All Final): 604-3007 ($5,214.30) Beatable Favorites : 104-339 ( 30.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 1063-3089 ( 34.4% ) +/-: -13.3% against a 16.6% takeout


 MonmouthParkBio