KevinCoxItem


Mediocre day yesterday, going 2-2-2 on the afternon, but our "unders" did quite well, helping out with multiple rollers, including a $1,276 Pick 5, and two pick 3's ( $92 & $52 ). Hate those "off the turf" days, as my "off the turf" selections are based on it being a wet track, but yesterday was anything but.

No worries, as we're 78:28-13-10 over the last 7 cards ( 36% ) which is nearly double our normal win rate, and we've shown a flat bet profit during that time, as well.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 8 - #7 Powerline


I want to thank those that read my column, and have recently opened up accounts as a result of their fondness for what they see here. If you have any questions at any time, you can reach me here on Disqus, or on Twitter @brooklyncowboy1. For those who dig the scene here, and would like to be part of it, registration on our home page is easy, and if you'd like, feel free to include my name in the referral box, and let me know, so I can try and get ya' some cool swag!


 

Monmouth Park - 8/22

 

Race 1-

1.Registrada

2.Cassini

3.High Holiday

#1 REGISTRADA is one of our top 3 making their debut today, and this gal is out of a dam that was 2 for 3 going one turn on the dirt, and the sire was a perfect 5-5 doing the same. She's a ha;f to 2 sprinting dirt winners, and although Rudy dips a bit ( 20% to 13% ) with 2YO Filly Mdspwt. firsters in dirt sprints, his ROI there is a healthy $3.89 ( $23, $37, and $35 ). #3 CASSINI is another from a dam that was good at this trip ( 6-13 ) as well as having a couple'a decent siblings. Breen with a $2.42 ROI in all relevant categories.  #6 HI HOLIDAY has been working decently for the curtain raising and $110,000 Ocala purchase boasts a healthy 384 Tomlinson at the distance and gets Joe in the irons. Keep in mind, however, that Orseno is just 1-35 with 2 Year Old first time starters on the brown stuff.  NOTE: AS OF 11:13, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #7 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race 2-

1.Awesome Heart

2.Rasta Friend ( Brz )

3.Sonofachub

#1 AWESOME HEART is our play of the day. Alexander got this one for a nickel almost 2 months ago, then instantly put him on the grass ( where he was 0-11 ) at the 10K level ( where he was 0 for his last ten ), so you just know that was done in order to dissuade potential purchasers today ( especially as McCarthy sticks around ). And as the late, great, Billy Mays says "But wait, there's more !"  http://instantbillymays.com/  This outfit is a whopping 7 for 12 ( 58% ) when halving their dirt runners into the low level claiming ranks ( $2.78 ROI ); nine of those runners hit the board. #2 RASTA FRIEND (BRZ) gets a big jockey switch to the bug du jour, and switches to two turns, which I feel he's better suited for. Lone threat to the top choice. #4 SONOFACHUB needs an alert beginning, but may come along for the show dough with the 5 pound drop in weight.

 

Race 3-

1.Monkey Business

2.Greed Is Good

3.Buzzon Bay

#2 MONKEY BUSINESS scorched some baccala in most recent, when running greenly from the rail and finishing 2nd at 3-5. In all fairness, that was his first start with blinkers, and although they stay on today, perhaps The Cat Man made some kind of adjustment to them, as this one has fired off a nice work since the start. Logical. #1 GREED IS GOOD ( A Gordon Gekko quote from 'Wall Street' ) has two runner up finishes from 4 dirt starts, and although I'm tossing in, I do so with a hint of trepidation, as 6% Cash has never done any "Cashing" when performing this turf to dirt move ( oh for 58 ). #6 BUZZON BAY is eligible to improve in his 2nd start off the extended break.  NOTE: AS OF 11:14, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #4 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race 4-

1.Max's Warrior

2.Archemist

3.Beautiful Cat

Although our secondary selection appears extremely strong here ( and must be used in all rollers ) we have a couple of nice angles with our top choice, the #7 MAX'S WARRIOR. Firstly, this one is dropped into the maiden claiming ranks for the first time. The conditioner has performed this move just twice, with one runner running 2nd by a neck at 5-1, and the other one finishing 3rd by a length+ @ 11-1. Max's dirt numbers are solid enough, as he now makes his first foray on the sod, and from 274 career starts, the trainer has done this move just once. The result ? A $75 winner. The dam, Piney Woods ( a characters' name from the excellent movie 'Bang The Drum Slowly' ), has some decent turf progeny, and good bug gets the nod. Hmmmmmm....... The aforementioned #5 ARCHEMIST has your best last race figure and should be right there. #8 BEAUTIFUL CAT makes first start for O'Connell today after losing by just two against slightly cheaper; 2nd time blinkers.  OFF TURF: 6-10(MTO)-9-12(MTO)-13(MTO)  NOTE: AS OF 11:15, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #10 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race 5-

1.Wedding Savior

2.Better Man

3.Untamed

#3 WEDDING SAVIOR squishes these like a grape. #4 BETTER MAN drops down to the lowest level of his career today, and has 3 placings from 4 local starts. #1 UNTAMED may plod along for a slice of London Broil late.

 

Race 6-

1.Exclusive Strike

2.Lawyer Jim

3.Step Brother

#6 EXCLUSIVE STRIKE, a $15,000 purchase in Florida over 4 years ago, worked himself all the way up to a third place finish in a Grade 1 ( ! ) three years later, but alas, has now slid back down the ladder and can be all yours for 12.5K today. Nonetheless, the speed figures are most definitely there, and Servis, excellent in all areas, is specifically good when halving his turf runners, 60 days or less, as he's 4 for 6 with a $3.60 ROI in that area. Seems solid. #3 LAWYER JIM often leaves himself with too much to do, and hasn't won in 2 years, but I can't dispute the solid Beyers, and must include. #1 STEP BROTHER is 6:0-0-4 locally, so the bottom rungs of the exotics seems about right.  OFF TURF: 5-4-7-6-2

 

Race 7-

1.Social Network

2.Candy Mine

3.We B Jammin

Pretty open deal cookin' here, with half the field having a shot, IMHO. What I'm gonna do for a change of pace, is list the specific Formulator trainer stats for our top 3 in order. The categories are : 13-26 days, dirt, route, Mth., state bred allowance races.   #3 SOCIAL NETWORK: Tim Kelly, a 9% trainer, is 31% ( 5-16 ) with a $3.08 ROI. #2 CANDY MINE: John Tammarro, an 8% conditioner, elevates that to 20%. #9 WE B JAMMIN: Greg Sacco jacks up his win rate from 14% to 21% under these circumstances. There will be value with the top two, and if you wanna know which other two horses I like that I left out, they'd be the #4 and the #5.

 

Race 8-

1.Indy Buzz

2.Paper Street

3.Kid Gavilan

I really don't like this race, folks, so I'm just gonna take a shot with a price here. Like I told my buddy Jack the other day when I put him on to a 23-1 winner to close out his late Pick 4 at Saratoga : "With maidens, allow yourself to go anywhere in their past performances---as they're maidens for a reason." #4 INDY BUZZ has been "Steadied" and "Checked" in his last two, labored over a "good" turf course prior to that, and was "Bumped" in that 4th start back. Okay, with those out of the way, what are we looking at ? Well, 3 of his 4 "Firm" turf outings before that quartet yielded adjusted numbers of 58.1, 68.5, and 55.3---not exactly terrible. Will be at least 30-1, so why not ? #6 PAPER STREET closed well to finish 2nd at this level last out; sensible inclusion. #1 KID GAVILAN as good as any to round out the top 3.  OFF TURF: 5-9-4-1-7  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #7 POWERLINE is from the 15% Iwinski barn, and they're 7:0-1-0 with maiden claiming turf routers, 22-44 days. ( The lone ITM finisher was this dude. )

 

Race 9-

1.Souper Knight

2.Early Entry

3.Mr. Viber

#2 SOUPER KNIGHT, in the money for 11 of his first 13 starts, hasn't hit the board in his last four, and gets some much needed class relief today. Trombetta, 17% on the norm, is 24% when affixing a "For Sale" sticker to the rump of his stock in dirt routes off 15-45 day respites. Gelding's lone 2 turn dirt attempt ended up with a solid 3rd place finish in December of 2013, and I like the fact that Mike gets this one out of Saratoga in lieu of an easier spot. #5 EARLY ENTRY made his first dirt route try a successful one, with a half length score at the level just below this one. Figures prominent once again. #3 MR. VIBER hadn't been seen in the length of a calendar, but that didn't matter, as he got the job done six weeks ago for a rare $20+ Pletcher score. Won at this trip in '14, and has been flattered by 2 of 3 runners from the recent score winning their next outing.

 

Race 10-

1.Circle City

2.Designed for War

3.Weekend Express

#3 CIRCLE CITY is an interesting play for us in this spot. Gelding's lone turf try left much to be desired, as he barely beat home the chase ambulance that day, but we can draw a line through that for a myriad of reasons : First time turf, broke slowly, no Lasix, front wraps, etc... After a couple of fair dirt outings, he's back on the green today, and it's worth noting that the dam's lone other turf runner was 2 for 4 routing, and earned over $130,000. Additionally, Zoppi, just an 8% fella, is 2 for 6 when going dirt to turf with routers, 40 days or less ( $34 & $16 ). Calls on Bocachica today, and the connections are a sensational 4 for 5 when teaming up in turf routes with runners returning off 20-40 day breaks ( $10.28 ROI ). The more I type, the more I like... #4 DESIGNED FOR WAR is 2nd off the bench for the Toddster today, and fought the good fight when last seen dashing in The Big Apple. Should move forward. #1 WEEKEND EXPRESS loses the hood and gets Jersey Joe today, who's 3:1-1-0 aboard this chap.  OFF TURF: 6-13(MTO)-3-9-12

 

Race 11-

1.High Dollar Woman

2.White Clover

3.Delightful Joy

Feature race of the day is the Grade 3 Monmouth Oaks, and it's a bit of a head scratcher. #11 HIGH DOLLAR WOMAN is marooned ,for sure, but has done extremely well since being transferred to the Steve Hobby barn. Obviously we're hoping she can cross over heading into he first turn, but is a timid choice. #3 WHITE CLOVER hasn't finished better than 7th in both fast track dirt routes, but discount Larry Jones in these types of races at your own peril. #4 DELIGHTFUL JOY goes two turns for the first time today, but is bred top and bottom to do so. Can't begrudge anyone utilizing the "all" button here.

 

Race 12-

1.Gallant Pursuit

2.I Will

3.My Uncle Sam

#10 GALLANT PURSUIT was claimed off an even 4th place finish at this level in last, and Cibelli won with her only ever new low level acquisitions returning in a dirt route, 10-20 days ( $5 ). #7 I WILL finish second. #12 MY UNCLE SAM is back at a reasonable level today, and loses the hood; journeyman back at the helm.

 

Monmouth Stats  ( Current ):     57-248  ( $378.40 ) Beatable Favorites:     7-18  ( 38.9% ) Favorite's Win %:  105-248 ( 42.3% )


Santa Anita Stats(2015 Final):     67-290 ( $462.00 ) Beatable Favorites:   18-39 ( 46.2% ) Favorite's Win %:141-334( 42.2% ) +/-:  -20.4% against a 15.0% takeout

Belmont Stats     (2015 Final):       2-13     ($25.90 ) Beatable Favorites:      1-6  ( 16.7% ) Favorite's Win %:   2-13  ( 15.4% ) +/-:   even    against a  15.0% takeout

Pimlico Stats       (2015 Final):       1-14      ( $6.80 ) Beatable Favorites:      3-3  ( 100%  ) Favorite's Win %:   5-14  ( 35.7% ) +/-:  -75.7% against an 18.0% takeout

Churchill Stats     (2015 Final):      2-25    (  $15.40 ) Beatable Favorites:      2-4  ( 50.0% ) Favorite's Win %;   6-25  ( 24.0% ) +/-:  -69.0% against a 17.5% takeout

Keeneland Stats  (2015 Final):    39-139  ( $278.00 ) Beatable Favorites:     3-13 ( 23.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 56-139 ( 40.3% ) +/-:   even   against a 16.0% takeout

Gulfstream Stats (2015 Final): 163-848 ( $1,467.70 ) Beatable Favorites : 31-104 ( 29.8% ) Favorite's Win %: 330-848 (38.9%) +/-: -13.5% against a 17.0% takeout


All Triple Crown & Breeders' Cup full days ( Above Churchill, Pimlico, and Belmont included in dirt and cumulative numbers ) :

( 2014-2015 Final ): 19-115   ( $230.60 ) Beatable Favorites: 10-27 ( 37.0% ) Favorite's Win %: 37-115  ( 32.2% )  +/-: +0.1% against a 17.0% takeout                                  


Poly Tracks 2014   (All Final): 83-557     ( $789.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-67   ( 22.4% ) Favorite's Win %: 160 -576  ( 27.8% ) +/-: -29.3% against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks 2014-5 (All Final): 521-2450 ($4,425.10) Beatable Favorites : 89-272 ( 32.7% ) Favorite's Win%: 903- 2513 ( 35.9% ) +/-: -9.5%  against a 17.0% takeout


Cumulative Stats (All Final): 604-3007 ($5,214.30) Beatable Favorites : 104-339 ( 30.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 1063-3089 ( 34.4% ) +/-: -13.3% against a 16.6% takeout


 MonmouthParkBio