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-We continued our winning ways on Sunday, closing out the week, banging out a FIVE bagger, and hitting EVERY rolling bet on the card. A hypothetical $2 bet on each ( sans the Pick 6 for .20 cents ) would've netted you a 97.1% profit on the day.

-As we normally pick about 20% winners ( because we always try to look for prices ), the current 6 day streak of 68:26-11-8 ( 38.2% ) with a positive ROI during that stretch has changed the taste in our mouth from Castor Oil to Bosco, and we've also been a bit more selective with our "Beatable Favorites" due to the high chalk rate at The Shore.

-Like usual, because I have extra time to prepare, today's column ( which actually took 7 hours to prepare ! ) is rife with intrinsic stats, so we BETTER have a good day !

-I wanna wish a safe journey to D'MARIN in today's 7th, as he's scheduled to make his 4th start in 20 days today.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None       Play Of The Day: Race 5 - #7 Devil's Silent


I want to thank those that read my column, and have recently opened up accounts as a result of their fondness for what they see here. If you have any questions at any time, you can reach me here on Disqus, or on Twitter @brooklyncowboy1. For those who dig the scene here, and would like to be part of it, registration on our home page is easy, and if you'd like, feel free to include my name in the referral box, and let me know, so I can try and get ya' some cool swag!


 

Monmouth Park - 8/21

 

Race 1-

1.Crystal Rosario

2.Dance N Denae

3.Grand Persona

#1 CRYSTAL ROSARIO couldn't find a softer spot for her career opener. Bennett ( who does just as well with firsters as any other type of runner ) trainee is out of a dam that won her only start ( dirt sprint ), and by a Graded Stakes winning sire that was 7:5-1-1 ( all dashing ) and was trained by none other than The Chief, himself. In a testament to his greatness, Mr. Jerkens ( as I called him ) utilized little known jock Noel Wynter for all those starts. 384 Tomlinson cements the decision for this January bred. #5 DANCE N DENAE takes the biggest drop in the game, adds Lasix, and is second time blinkers. Obvious inclusion on all bets, vertical and horizontal. #4 GRAND PERSONA is as good as any to round out the tri.

 

Race 2-

1.After The Dream

2.Wild Twist

3.Lady's Kan

#4 LADY'S DREAM is a timid selection in this turf dash. Chestnut showed some decent zip when returning off a 4 month sabbatical, gets off the rail a bit, sheds 2 pounds, and should move forward off that effort; 21% Cibelli is 28% ( $2.35 ROI ) with 2nd off the layoff turf sprinters. #6 WILD TWIST ran a decent 3rd in career opener over a "good" turf course, and now has the hood added by Mr. Perkins. Runner up from that race returned to win in a similar spot next time out ( 60 ). and 4th place finisher ran 2nd in a turf route. Logical. #8 LADY'S KAN is from a hot sire and fired off an even hotter gate move last week ( 35 2/5 ). Jockey colder than the dark side of the moon, but may pick up some pieces late.  OFF TURF: 6-3-7-4-8

 

Race 3-

1.Boss's Rules

2.Harlington Romance

3.Lady Vivien

Looks like just a three horse affair here. Not that they'll run 1-2-3, but rather that any one of the three should win. #2 BOSS'S RULES went wire to wire last time out against slightly cheaper, and although the 8 year old is rising a bit in class today, Marotta ( having a fine stand ) who's normally 11%, is 5 for 10 with dirt routers that have won their last start within 45 days ago, and are returning in a low level claiming or starter today ( $5.64 ROI ). #8 HARLINGTON ROMANCE was a well beaten 3rd in the aforementioned strung out race, but ended up in the Farro barn afterwards, and she's a snazzy 3 for 8 ( 8-8 ITM ), with new acquisitions returning in bottom claiming routes, 28-56 days ( $4.52 ROI ). #3 LADY VIVIEN has hit the board in 14 straight --- need I say more ?

 

Race 4-

1.Saint Pierre

2.Yari

3.Rico Suave

#1 SAINT PIERRE was all out to get up by a nostril when winning under identical circumstances 3 1/2 weeks ago, and while many may fret that the effort took something out of him, all I need to do to allay any trepidation is to take a glance at DRF Formulator, where it says that Rubley is a lovely 5:2-3-0 with turf routers that won their last start less than 40 days ago ( $45 & $8 ). Me likey. #3 YARI was pretty lackluster against similar in last, but Cibelli saw fit to plunk down a quarter that day, and entices Trevor to ride. #6 RICO SUAVE, 6:2-1-1 when carrying 114 pounds or less ( 6 for 35 at higher imposts ) may plod along for a share late.  OFF TURF: 10(MTO)-6-1-2-5

 

Race 5-

1.Devil's Silent

2.Cocoki

3.Easy Landing

While I will give in to the fact that the #7 DEVIL'S SILENT will have to capitulate the lead to our secondary selection, I believe that Juarez will be able to guide this one into a nice stalking position on the backside. Last out figure is clearly the best of the bunch, and even if she regresses somewhat, should be able to squish these. Rudy, 20% day to day, is a tremendous 11 for 24 ( 46% ) w/ 3YO and up maiden claiming dirt runners, 3rd off the bench at 6F or less ( $2.83 ROI ), as well. The aforementioned #8 COCOKI will be in front as far as she goes, and does have a bit of maturity edge over the Devil; maybe toss in the rollers for safety's sake ? #3 EASY LANDING is a nibbling nibbler, with 6 minor spoils from her 10 lifetime starts; leaving underneath.

 

Race 6-

1.Heaven Help Me

2.Dance With Gio

3.Arissa ( AE )

#4 HEAVEN HELP ME finished in the back half of the field in most recent, but was only beaten by a total of 2 lengths that day, so don't be too harsh on her. You have to think that race ( at a higher level ) was totally a prep for this ( as well as to thwart off potential purchasers by inserting a poor running line on the page ), as this gal is 0-4 in turf dashes, and 4-12 in grass routes. Additionally, Ness, 28% when rolling out of bed in the morning, is 41% with 2nd off the claim mid level turfers ( $2.43 ROI ). There's even a "category within that category", as the "Supertrainer" is 3:2-0-1 going from a sprint to a route. #1 DANCE WITH GIO has been a bit flat in the last two, so now drops down to her lowest level in this, her 46th start. 10% Kopaj is sharp 4-17 ( 24% ) with mid level turf routers returning at Monmouth in 9-19 days. The prices of those winners are a healthy $7, $24, $23, and $33. Oh yeah---gets in at lightest weight ever, as well. Must include. #10 ARISSA (AE) was tardy to the party in most recent, but blitzed conditional foes just prior to that. DiBona, a 16% trainer, jacks that up to 27% with this type returning off breaks of 22-44 days.  OFF TURF: 10(AE)-3-4-5-8

 

Race 7-

1.Deacon Fur

2.Liberty St. Outlaw

3.Bobby V.

Extremely wide open deal cooking here, with basically 7 of the 9 entered having a shot. #5 DEACON FUR had a "workout within a race" last time out, as I believe Farro had this race earmarked all along. Why ? She wheels the horse back off of short rest, and is a sensational 6 for 13 ( 46% ! ) when stretching out low level dirt runners, 12 days or less ( $4.72 ROI ). Hear me on this: You're gonna be hearing much noise about this bug Gudiel for the rest of the meet. ( I was right about Benson, wasn't I ? ) #9 LIBERTY ST. OUTLAW made us look like heroes when winning convincingly for us last time out to the tune of $32. 17% barn is a crisp 3 for 4 with low level dirt claimers routing in 20 days or less, and this one owes us nothing. #8 BOBBY V. ( named after the former Mets manager that once wore a fake mustache in the dugout ? ) is in form, and has Ness and McCarthy calling the shots. Sensible.

 

Race 8-

1.Stringers Point (AE)

2.Pirradazis

3.Big Daddy B

#11 SPRINGERS POINT (AE) will need two scratches to get in, and as this one is cross entered at Penn National tomorrow, we're not sure he'll face the starter. Should that occur however, he brings some serious speed to the table, and was a well clear runner up when last seen over 2 1/2 months ago ( show horse returned a winner ). #3 PIRRADAZIS has run second in 4 of his last 5 "firm" turf events. Seems like a logical 1-2 player once again, especially as he's been flattered by the winner of last doing it again in the 14K ranks ( 73 Beyer ). #1 BIG DADDY B should be able to procure an exotics placing.  OFF TURF: 1A(AE)-7-4-8-10(AE)  NOTE: AS OF 3:35, DUE TO THREE LATE SCRATCHES, THE #1 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race 9-

1.Tiger Moth

2.Don'tforgetaboutme

3.Wildly Good Lookin

Another head scratcher here. #6 TIGER MOTH has gone right up the Beyer ladder, while finishing in the money in each and every  start. A little bit of a bad actor at the gate, but should move forward in this, her second route. #8 DON'TFORGETABOUTME, the 2nd half of the uncoupled Pletcher entry, will likely offer some pace for the above to cut into, buy could be strong on her own merits if able to coast early. #3 WILDLY GOOD LOOKIN ( I can relate ! ) flopped in last two, but crushed state bred foes when going a distance of ground three back; Price play.

 

Race 10-

1.Always Dear

2.Acrostic

3.Double Desert

We have three logical horses in the finale, and not only are they must inclusions from "figures" standpoints, but there are also tremendous "Formulator"aspects to pay heed to, as well. #9 ALWAYS DEAR is dropped way down to a lifetime low in this, her 21st start, and 19% Bennett more than doubles that batting average ( 9 for 23 ) when halving his bottom of the barrel dirt sprinters ( $2.08 ROI ), and has an 83% ITM rate with those runners, to boot. #1 ACROSTIC wired slightly cheaper in most recent, and although the figure came back low that day, "Miracle Trainer" Navarro boosts his normal 27% win percentage to the 47% range ( 18-38 ) w/last out, low level, sprinting dirt winners coming back within the 14-28 day range ( $2.65 ROI ). Got a bit wobbly late in the game in that score, which is never something you wanna see from these type, so take a hard look in the paddock and on the track. #3 DOUBLE DESERT, the second half of the uncoupled Navarro entry, has been burning a bit of bread lately, losing 10 straight with half of them at 5-2 or less, but overall, Jorge is 42% ( 37-86 ) with cheapie dirt sprinters in the 22-44 day range.

 

Monmouth Stats  ( Current ):     55-238  ( $370.80 ) Beatable Favorites:     7-18  ( 38.9% ) Favorite's Win %:  102-238 ( 42.9% )


Santa Anita Stats(2015 Final):     67-290 ( $462.00 ) Beatable Favorites:   18-39 ( 46.2% ) Favorite's Win %:141-334( 42.2% ) +/-:  -20.4% against a 15.0% takeout

Belmont Stats     (2015 Final):       2-13     ($25.90 ) Beatable Favorites:      1-6  ( 16.7% ) Favorite's Win %:   2-13  ( 15.4% ) +/-:   even    against a  15.0% takeout

Pimlico Stats       (2015 Final):       1-14      ( $6.80 ) Beatable Favorites:      3-3  ( 100%  ) Favorite's Win %:   5-14  ( 35.7% ) +/-:  -75.7% against an 18.0% takeout

Churchill Stats     (2015 Final):      2-25    (  $15.40 ) Beatable Favorites:      2-4  ( 50.0% ) Favorite's Win %;   6-25  ( 24.0% ) +/-:  -69.0% against a 17.5% takeout

Keeneland Stats  (2015 Final):    39-139  ( $278.00 ) Beatable Favorites:     3-13 ( 23.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 56-139 ( 40.3% ) +/-:   even   against a 16.0% takeout

Gulfstream Stats (2015 Final): 163-848 ( $1,467.70 ) Beatable Favorites : 31-104 ( 29.8% ) Favorite's Win %: 330-848 (38.9%) +/-: -13.5% against a 17.0% takeout


All Triple Crown & Breeders' Cup full days ( Above Churchill, Pimlico, and Belmont included in dirt and cumulative numbers ) :

( 2014-2015 Final ): 19-115   ( $230.60 ) Beatable Favorites: 10-27 ( 37.0% ) Favorite's Win %: 37-115  ( 32.2% )  +/-: +0.1% against a 17.0% takeout                                  


Poly Tracks 2014   (All Final): 83-557     ( $789.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-67   ( 22.4% ) Favorite's Win %: 160 -576  ( 27.8% ) +/-: -29.3% against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks 2014-5 (All Final): 521-2450 ($4,425.10) Beatable Favorites : 89-272 ( 32.7% ) Favorite's Win%: 903- 2513 ( 35.9% ) +/-: -9.5%  against a 17.0% takeout


Cumulative Stats (All Final): 604-3007 ($5,214.30) Beatable Favorites : 104-339 ( 30.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 1063-3089 ( 34.4% ) +/-: -13.3% against a 16.6% takeout


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