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The day started out well enough for us yesterday, as we bagged an ice cold $934 Tri in the opener, and steadily went south from there, as we got one winner home the rest of the day ( including several losing faves for us ).

Nonetheless, over the last 5 days we're at 56:21-9-4, and look to close out the week in style.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 7 - #6 Mills


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Monmouth Park - 8/16

 

Race 1-

1.Lost In Success

2.Chippette

3.Precious Franca

#6 LOST IN SUCCESS was recently transferred to the Vitali barn after that flop 2 weeks ago, and the conditioner has some good stats with horses of this ilk. Over the last 5 years, the outfit is 4 for 9 with new runners sprinting for any tag on the dirt, 10-20 days. Go to rider called upon. #4 CHIPPETTE finished ahead of our top choice in last, when just missing against open foes. A journeyman takes over for the bug today, and sometimes animals respond well to a change of more seasoned hands. #8 PRECIOUS FRANCA is yet another exiting that 7/31 heat, and this miss is 2 for 4 at The Shore, compared to just 2-33 elsewhere; sensible.  NOTE: AS OF 11:26, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #1 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race 2-

1.Daddy's Crazy Girl

2.Ticket To Riches

3.Bourbon Trace

#2 DADDY'S CRAZY GIRL ( cross entered in yesterday's 7th ) burned some bread in last, but on the whole, 13% Sacco is a whopping 10-25 ( 40% ) with local maiden claiming dirt routers returning in 14-28 days ( $2.89 ROI ). #7 TICKET TO RICHES is another that disappointed her backers last time out, when finishing 3rd at 4 to 5. 390 Tomlinson at the distance says that today's stretchout is within her scope, and Trevor takes over for the bug. #8 BOURBON TRACE has been improving with each and every start, and is a longshot play to spice up the exotics.

 

Race 3-

1.Get Creative

2.Spring About

3.March Too

#7 GET CREATIVE showed absolutely zilch when doubled up in class and tossed on the lawn last out, but don't read too much into that, as I believe that Rudy was merely trying to put a false line into him to avoid being claimed today. Colt was 2nd against slightly tougher in the start prior to that, and is now 5 pounds lighter off that effort. Draws ideally today, as he's 1 for 1 when breaking from the outside. Dig it. #5 SPRING ABOUT and #3 MARCH TOO both put forth honest efforts last time and seem to be spotted well enough at this level once again.

 

Race 4-

1.Feloya

2.Action Tonight

3.Charlie's Rainbow

#7 FELOYA was dead game in most recent when having the front wraps added and losing by just a neck against slightly cheaper. 8% trainer Bishop is a snazzy 3 for 12 ( 25% ) with low level claimers returning in dirt sprints off 11-22 day respites, and has a large $5.90 ROI with those winners, as well. #1 ACTION TONIGHT gets in light after a runner up finish at this level last out, and speed figures are comparable to the top choice, so the #2 spot is logical. #4 CHARLIE'S RAINBOW has speed and drops, and that's always a dangerous combo. Tammy, a decent front end rider, gets the call. Watch out.

 

Race 5-

1.Thunder Calls

2.Pulpit's Express

3.Saturday's for Fun

#6 THUNDER CALLS lost by only a neck in his first try off nearly a 7 month layoff, and is right back at that same level today. Servis---a phenomenal trainer in any category---wins a third of his races when the animal is a mid level turf router, 2nd off the layoff ( $ 3.56 ROI ). Take it to the bank. #3 PULPIT'S EXPRESS drops to his lowest level yet, in this, his 32nd start. You simply can not discount Navarro when saying that---regardless of the current form. #2 SATURDAY'S FOR FUN is merely a longshot play for the show dough, so don't read too much into it.  OFF TURF: 6-1-10-9-2

 

Race 6-

1.Royal Burgh

2.Clowney

3.Doherty

#7 ROYAL BURGH failed to finish his last start, but has since worked out okay for the state vet, but Pletcher has seen enough of this $150,000 purchase as he drops him in for 12.5K. The Toddster is 2 for 4 ( 4 for 4 ITM ) with 2nd off the L/O dirt routers that are up for sale for the first time. Shaky choice. #9 CLOWNEY, by my calculations, is a definite 1-2-3 player here, as he increased in the Beyer department when facing winners for the first time, when only losing by a bit over two lengths. Distance could be a bit of an issue, but we'll take a chance. #5 DOHERTY was a well clear 2nd at this level 2 weeks ago, and makes sense to hit the board once again. NOTE: AS OF 11:30, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #3 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race 7-

1.Tune Me In

2.Act of Madness

3.Gourmet Delight

#2 TUNE ME IN won this exact race 16 days ago, and who are we to argue with success ? ( 21:6-6-6 local ledger helps matters as well ! ). #4 ACT OF MADNESS split the field when last seen just before Independence Day, and I like the fact that there's no panicky drop by O'Connell, as she's given this one ample time to regroup. Gelding always gives a decent effort, and the price should be solid. #7 GOURMET DELIGHT has crashed the triple in his last quartet, and when you factor that in with the overall 16:1-3-5 record, you have yourself a nice "unders" candidate. BEATABLE FAVORITE: #6 MILLS is 2nd off the claim for Jacobsen, and over the last 5 years he's a miserable 1-33 when that type is routing on the grass ( $0.21 ROI---bleccchhhh ). OFF TURF: 10(MTO)-8-4-1-6

 

Race 8-

1.Risky Guy

2.Songa

3.Majestic Number

We're seeing this race as clear as a bell with only two horses ( in our eyes ) having a chance of winning. Torn between two horses, we are ( kinda reminds me of that Mary MacGregor song from the 70's, "Torn Between Two Lovers" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wmvYlJb2-bc  ). Anyway, the #1 RISKY GUY is an EXCELLENT pro-rated play in this spot. The 62 speed figure earned on the lawn last time out was BY FAR better than he should've run over that surface ( as well as being the better of his two lifetime grass efforts ). Now all you have to do is carry that over to either of the prior two starts, and he's got a number that pretty much ensconces most of this field. The only one we feel that could upset the apple cart would be Jacobsen's charge, the #2 SONGA, as the outfit is a crisp 4 for 7 ( 6 of 7 ITM ) with 2nd off the claim dirt sprinters being halved in price, second off the layoff. We'll be utilizing both runners in our rolling wagers. We'll toss the #10 MAJESTIC NUMBER in the show spot based on the 4:2-2-0 record at Oceanport.  NOTE: AS OF 11:33, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #6 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race 9-

1.Double The Energy

2.Forest Funds

3.Get Air Lex

#2 DOUBLE THE ENERGY has not regressed in the Beyer department in her last five starts, and is but a cumulative length and a half of completing the hat trick. Three runners from the most recent came back to win their next starts, and Hernandez is allegedly in for the mount. #1 FOREST FUNDS has been in the exacta 5 of 6 times and cuts back from a route to a sprint today ( which can always be a little tricky under these circumstances ). Has won from the rail before, so gameness is not an issue. #4 GET AIR LEX was visually impressive in procuring the diploma nearly 2 months ago, and sometimes when the ol' light bulb pops on with maiden winners, they stay hot; Paco returns. OFF TURF: 5-1-10(MTO)-2-6

 

Race 10-

1.Amblin Easy

2.Long Blooming Rose

3.She's Hot Wired

#6 AMBLIN EASY simply coasted in a route last time at work, and although she switches back to a dash today, this gal is 6:2-0-3 in her last half'a dozen sprints. Front wraps were added in the recent score, so you may wanna watch this one warming up a bit. #5 LONG BLOOMING ROSE has been befallen by layoff lines of late, but her short game ain't half bad, and she digs the scenery here ( 5:1-1-2 ). #7 SHE'S HOT WIRED is a bit of a nibbler ( 23:2-7-8 overall ), but we like the fact that McCarthy tries hard for all placings, so we'll incorporate below.  NOTE: AS OF 11:36, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #3 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race 11-

1.Wolfie

2.Ruby Notion

3.One Minute

I truly have no feel on this race whatsoever, so take everything I say here with a grain of salt... This Monmouth turf course is rock hard these days, and while it's always nice to find an unproven turf runner with good breeding in an open dash such as this, occasionally it's okay to side with a speedy dirt horse, and that's precisely what we'll do with the #1 WOLFIE. This gal cut a 23 flat opening quarter when the curtain went up two months ago, and pretty much controlled from the halfway point. Sacco thought enough of the performance ( and the ride ) to send her to Delaware for a baby stakes , and he even sacrificed some experience when letting the bug keep the mount ( without the normal apprentice weight allowance ). She cut a 22 1/5 opening quarter that day, before fading a bit, but still getting her black type. We're obviously pinning our hopes to a wire job here. #5 RUBY NOTION beat 21 of 27 home ( yowsa ) across the pond in Royal Ascot 62 days ago, and although those kinda flights can sometimes drain a horse somewhat ( as well as the fact that Ward is an icicle up here at The Spa ), we'll leave in the hopper. #7 ONE MINUTE should give an improved performance in the transition to the green stuff today.  OFF TURF: 5-1-6-8-2

 

Race 12-

1.Casual Elegance

2.Jojo's Gal

3.Don't Panic

#3 CASUAL ELEGANCE, stakes placed earlier in the year, can be all yours for a nickel today. 5 year old mare came along belatedly in return off a 2 month absence, and I'm not entirely sure if that change of tactics was intentional, as it deviated from her usual front running ways, or was it the result of soreness ? Anyway, these are the questions you have to ask yourself when betting gruesome races such as this. If sound, she's obviously dangerous. #11 JOJO'S GAL, cross entered here yesterday, is 1-1-1 from her last 3 starts, but they were all from inner post positions, and you should most definitely take note that she's 5:0-0-0 from the 8 hole on out; mixed signals. #1 DON'T PANIC is a nice horse in a bad barn. Can't endorse a 3% outfit on top, but as this miss is 2 for 4 from the wood ( and 2 for 19 when breaking from other slots ), we'll chunk her in.

 

Monmouth Stats  ( Current ):     55-238  ( $370.80 ) Beatable Favorites:     7-18  ( 38.9% ) Favorite's Win %:  102-238 ( 42.9% )


Santa Anita Stats(2015 Final):     67-290 ( $462.00 ) Beatable Favorites:   18-39 ( 46.2% ) Favorite's Win %:141-334( 42.2% ) +/-:  -20.4% against a 15.0% takeout

Belmont Stats     (2015 Final):       2-13     ($25.90 ) Beatable Favorites:      1-6  ( 16.7% ) Favorite's Win %:   2-13  ( 15.4% ) +/-:   even    against a  15.0% takeout

Pimlico Stats       (2015 Final):       1-14      ( $6.80 ) Beatable Favorites:      3-3  ( 100%  ) Favorite's Win %:   5-14  ( 35.7% ) +/-:  -75.7% against an 18.0% takeout

Churchill Stats     (2015 Final):      2-25    (  $15.40 ) Beatable Favorites:      2-4  ( 50.0% ) Favorite's Win %;   6-25  ( 24.0% ) +/-:  -69.0% against a 17.5% takeout

Keeneland Stats  (2015 Final):    39-139  ( $278.00 ) Beatable Favorites:     3-13 ( 23.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 56-139 ( 40.3% ) +/-:   even   against a 16.0% takeout

Gulfstream Stats (2015 Final): 163-848 ( $1,467.70 ) Beatable Favorites : 31-104 ( 29.8% ) Favorite's Win %: 330-848 (38.9%) +/-: -13.5% against a 17.0% takeout


All Triple Crown & Breeders' Cup full days ( Above Churchill, Pimlico, and Belmont included in dirt and cumulative numbers ) :

( 2014-2015 Final ): 19-115   ( $230.60 ) Beatable Favorites: 10-27 ( 37.0% ) Favorite's Win %: 37-115  ( 32.2% )  +/-: +0.1% against a 17.0% takeout                                  


Poly Tracks 2014   (All Final): 83-557     ( $789.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-67   ( 22.4% ) Favorite's Win %: 160 -576  ( 27.8% ) +/-: -29.3% against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks 2014-5 (All Final): 521-2450 ($4,425.10) Beatable Favorites : 89-272 ( 32.7% ) Favorite's Win%: 903- 2513 ( 35.9% ) +/-: -9.5%  against a 17.0% takeout


Cumulative Stats (All Final): 604-3007 ($5,214.30) Beatable Favorites : 104-339 ( 30.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 1063-3089 ( 34.4% ) +/-: -13.3% against a 16.6% takeout


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