SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Gulfstream Selections & Analysis - 3/29 - Closing Day
  
  

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TIZ THE LAW !!! 


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 8 - Anyone who is the ML favorite as long as our top choice runs.


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Gulfstream - 3/29 - Closing Day

 

Race  1

1.La Guatemalteca

2.Wild About This

3.Holly Hill

#4 LA GUATEMALTECA has only beaten home four in as many calls to the post, but switches to the turf today, and this one is a half to a two for five turf dasher who banked 34 large. Daddy was 6:2-2-1-0 on the poly and the paternal granddam was 3:1-1-0 in turf sprints on a firm course as well. Ain't facing much here. #1 WILD ABOUT THIS has some routing speed and may perk up on the cutback. #3 HOLLY HILL encountered a boatload of trouble when losing by only two at a zillion to one two starts back, and we like that the followup outing on the sand was substantially better than the two prior outings over the stuff, which legitimizes the turf try just prior.  OFF TURF: 8-4-6-3-9

 

Race  2

1.Enlisting

2.Vicky Apple

3.Tiz Possible Dear

#12 ENLISTING sheds seven pounds off a winning effort which produced a number that positively lays over this allotment. Down the lane to keep Arroyo from a winless meet. #3 VICKY APPLE was a well beaten but well clear third in this race back in mid February, and did such despite getting smacked around a little bit. Upgrade in the jockey dept. duly noted here. #10 TIZ POSSIBLE DEAR showed absolutely nothing in the most recent, but finds herself at her lowest level to date, and Edgar ( who as astride for the last score ) returns. Best work has come right here. 

 

Race  3

1.Astoundment

2.Tizahra

3.Pardon My Heart

#5 ASTOUNDMENT hasn't been seen in 51 weeks, but bay filly hung up an adjusted 93.4 ( right here ) in her penultimate outing, and although we're not expecting anything like that today, a figure even a dozen points less would put this one smack dab in the middle of things. #2 TIZAHRA has closed out the exacta in her last duet, and rang up a pair of "75's" in her last two turf outings. Leaving beneath because of the frigid Landeros. #1 PARDON MY HEART has been a different animal since coming back off an elongated break, and picks up Saez, who had a handful on Thursday. Should work out a nice stalking trip from teh pocket.  OFF TURF: 9(AE)-5-6-1-7-8

 

Race  4 

1.Estilo Talentoso ( AE )

2.Sovereign Appeal

3.Prairie Wings ( AE )

#16 ESTILO TALENTOSO (AE) needs a lot of luck in order to make it over to the races, but should that be the case, this one brings in a troika of runner up finishes from as many outings -- at three different class levels, beneath three different jockeys, at two different venues. Filly goes from an apprentice to a journeyman this afternoon, and the numbers have improved dramatically. #2 SOVEREIGN APPEAL brings in a recent bullet gate breeze for today's initial foray ( something that always merits inclusion ), and brings along a monstrous 439 Tomlinson figure for the distance. First foal out of a dam who was all turf, was sired by a champion hombre who was 6 for 8 in dirt sprints, making a bunch of bread in the process. A couple of grandparents fared nicely dancing to this music, and aside from the AE's, is facing a weak allotment. #14 PRAIRIE WINGS (AE) is another on the outside looking in, but was a solid runner up behind a next out winnah first time out, and as this 200K runner went for 4X that amount at auction, we'd be remiss in excluding.   NOTE: AS OF 11:58, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 13(AE)-2-8

 

Race  5

1.Incredible Miss

2.Whiskarita

3.Trieste ( Brz ) 

#7 INCREDIBLE MISS hasn't been in action since around turkey time, but finished 3rd in her lone try off an absence, and as the only turf attempt came directly before the break, we'll give her an opportunity here with some okay turf breeding. Meek choice. #5 WHISKARITA is confidently hiked up in class after losing by a sliver against cheaper on this course on the first of the month, and there have been a couple'a nice morning moves since. #3 TRIESTE (BRZ) hung up adjusted figaros of 79.1 & 79.2 the only times she returned off an absence, and the solo tally came both at this trip and over this strip. Pre-L/O pilot comes back, which is something we always dig, as it tells us that nothing wacky happened last time out.  OFF TURF: 4-1-6-5-9

 

Race  6 

1.Tio Will

2.Hard Lighting

3.Pianzi ( AE )

#11 TIO WILL closed out the superfecta right at outta the box at 15-1 odds, but ( as often happens with the newbies ) regressed a bit in the followup, and the pedigree say to us that this one can bounce right back at a big mutuel offering; slightest of edges in a race where we were unable to eliminate anyone at first glance. #10 HARD LIGHTING has a few nicely hidden workouts amidst some ordinary morning moves, and the 367 Tommy for the dx. is honest enough. #14 PIANZI (AE) is second time Lasix today and gets a tremendous jockey change from 5% Maragh to Luis in this spot; we'll toss in at a price.   NOTE: AS OF 12:03, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #4 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  7

1.Kaufy Bean

2.Mystery Bank

3.Justinthenickoftime

#3 KAUFY BEAN has been freshened up since a flat performance going short in mid December, and there's a nice precedent set in regards to the layoff, as Miller charge got her photo taken after scoring off a break in late September, earning a career best # in the process. Colt will need to step up his game a bit, but is by no means hopeless. #4 MYSTERY BANK was a lively and decently clear runner up in the first start off the claim, and although that came against maiden claiming competition, the figure earned was comparable to many signed on here. #6 JUSTINTHENICKOFTIME has improved w/each and every turf start, so who quite knows where his ceiling is in that regards.  OFF TURF: 5-8-3-4-6

 

Race  8 

1.Forever Mo

2.Dubby Dubbie

3.Faraway Kitten

#1 FOREVER MO is our play of the week. Colt has beaten home just four in his last three trips to the gate, but it's the most recent that sets the wheels in motion for us. In the Gulfstream Park Mile (G2), 4YO bested just one at 96-1, and earned an 85 Beyer that day. What we like, is that in his other starts over a fast track he put up #'s of 52-54-55-& 20. So now what we do is prorate that to his best figure going two turns on firm ground, and we find one that was nearly a year ago to the very day: The 125K Cutler Bay at this locale. The adjusted speed figure for that affair was a 101.3, and it also came from an inside-ish slot. We've scrolled up and down the page, and none of this one's foes have come close to that recently, and not only should you recognize that 'Mo won his only start when beginning from the pine, but is on a 5:3-0-0-1 string outside of stakes company, while owning a cumulative 10:0-2-2-2 mark otherwise during that time. The more we type... #2 DUBBY DUBBIE loses the eye cups today and the last time that happened he secured the lion's share of the purse. #3 FARAWAY KITTEN ( cross entered Saturday, so check the changes ) is out of jail after the 2/26 purchase, but gets hiked up by the new connex & pre-claim Tyler returns.  OFF TURF: 1-3-7-6-11  BEATABLE FAVORITE: ANYONE WHO IS THE M.L. FAVORITE AS LONG AS OUR TOP CHOICE RUNS.

 

Race  9 

1.Bargainaire

2.Navasha

3.Caroline Lois

We were unable to lop anyone off with our first glance here, so tread lightly...  #2 BARGAINAIRE is one for two in 3rd off the L/O scenarios on the brown stuff, and has hit the board in five of six. Meek choice toting the lightest impost of her working life. #7 NAVASHA won her only try off a hiatus, and it occurred at this trip, over this strip, and beneath today's jockey. #3 CAROLINE LOIS hasn't seen the scene in two St. Patrick's Day's, but was heading in the right direction before the wheels came off, and Romans okay w/returnees of this type. 

 

Race  10

1.Champagne Train

2.Sconset

3.Sharethegoodtimes

#13 CHAMPAGNE TRAIN hasn't done much to get the pulse racing thus far, but the nice turf move up at Palm Meadows tells us to give this one a looksie --should she draw in. We've always liked taking shots on fading dirt dashers going long on the lawn second time out, and #2 SCONSET does just that while shedding 160 ounces. This one is a half to one who is 2 for 6 iin 2X turf heats ( 61K ). #3 SHARETHEGOODTIMES closes out the race, day, week, and meet here at Gulfstream Park. Racing ( and our analysis ) scheduled to resume here on Thursday, but of course we'll instantly switch over whenever they start racing in New York again.  OFF TURF: 3-12-10-15(AE)-16(AE)  NOTE: AS OF 12:05, DUE TO A KEY LATE SCRATCH, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 11-9-1.

 

Gulfstream      ( Current ):        6-66     ( $86.90 )   Beatable Favorites    0-2    ( 0% )       Favorites Win %     26-66     ( 39.1% ) ( As of Sunday Morning )


Aqueduct Winter  ( Final ):     65-427    ( $615.10 )  Beatable  Favorites  8-18  ( 44.4% )   Favorites Win %:   174-427 ( 40.8% ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ):       2-8        ( $25.60 )    Beatable Favorites    N/A   (  N/A )      Favorites Win %:     2-8      ( 25.0% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 64-411  ( $581.30 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 139-411 (33.8%)  +/-: -29.2% against a 16.8% takeout  


Poly Tracks2013-16  (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-20 (All Final):2511-12426 ($21,132.80)  Beatable Favorites : 343-1222( 28.1% )Favorite's Win %: 4751-12529 ( 37.9% ) +/-: -15.3%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats      (All Final): 2596-12995 ($21,953.00)  Beatable Favorites : 350-1272( 27.5% )Favorite's Win %: 4739-12689 ( 37.4% ) +/-: -15.4%  against a 16.6% takeout


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