SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Gulfstream Selections & Analysis - 3/27
  
  

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Goose egg for us here yesterday, but we look to pick thinngs up today ! 


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


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Gulfstream - 3/27

 

Race  1

1.This Ill Defend ( AE )

2.Mighty Tough

3.Seven and Seven

#15 THIS ILL DEFEND (AE) needs a lot of help to draw into the body of the race, but should that come to come to bear, brings in tow a couple of nicely adjusted figaros over firm ground ( 76.8 & 70.6 ) -- one of those coming from an outside slot. Runner gets a positive change in the jockey department, and has a good shot if a hot pace develops up front. #7 MIGHTY TOUGH has a few nice morning moves for today's overture, and $40,000 auction purchase went for more than 10X that amount at Ocala less than a year ago. Dam was 2-13 in turf routes ( 106K ) and daddy won both of his synthetic outings as well. #5 SEVEN AND SEVEN ( John Travolta's favorite drink in 'Saturday Night Fever' ) showed exceptional improvement when trying the gramma for the first time off an elongated absence, and did such at 78-1. Like our top selection, chilly Landeros is taken off this one.  OFF TURF: 3-6-7-2-8  NOTE: AS OF 5:33 WEDNESDAY, WE ARE AMENDING OUR SELECTIONS TO 7-5-3. 

 

Race  2

1.Miss Mac

2.Don't Get Khozy

3.Chit Chat Girl

#6 MISS MAC bounced a little bit in the "first off the layoff/first start vs. winners" outing at the end of February, but is halved in price this afternoon, and is eligible to make amends today. #7 DON'T GET KHOZY has gone down and up the Beyer ladder over her last octet, but was a decently clear runner up in this race 22 days ago, and should be left in the mix once again. #2 CHIT CHAT GIRL finds herself @ her lowest level to date and has been freshened up for today's return to action. 

 

Race  3

1.Apache

2.Light Fury

3.Tapi Frost

#2 APACHE had an awful start to the debut right here on 2/22, but still managed to show a bit of early hoof before fading at the half. Late foal takes a bit of a drop here, and the 399 Tomlinson figure tells us that this one definitely deserves another opportunity. Employing the "Diamond in the Rough" theory with the #3 LIGHT FURY, as this one has a crisp 1:00 4/5th's gate breeze amidst a bevy of ordinary moves for today's initial foray. This one is a half to two dirt sprinting winners from as may foals out of the dam, and could spice things up a bit. #5 TAPI FROST may not have cared for the goo last out and is back in for a tag in this spot.   NOTE: AS OF 11:57, WE ARE FLIP FLOPPING OUR TOP TWO SELECTIONS.

 

Race  4 

1.Fast Catalina

2.Borrowed Angel

3.Letter Storm

( We may adjust our selections for this race once the odds are posted, so be sure to revisit. ) #2 FAST CATALINA didn't have the smoothest of onsets when beginning her working life on March the 8th, but showed a little fight before folding the tent turning for home. The bullet workouts before that deal, as well as the one afterwards, tell us that there is most definitely speed inside this gal's belly. Breeding isn't overly important in these types of races, but for what it's worth, the paternal grandsire won three of four over firm  ground. #7 BORROWED ANGEL hasn't shown much in the mornings, but dam was 1 fer 3 in this type of deal, and gals is a half to three different runners who've amassed a total of $1.12 million in earnings. #6 LETTER STORM posted an adjusted 62.8 in her only try off a break and now has blinks added.  OFF TURF: 7-1-5-6-10

 

Race  5

1.Queen Kantharos

2.Mia's Bobtail

3.Sabina Park

#5 QUEEN KANTHAROS grabbed the lead at the top of the lane at 29-1 when last seen, but the 29-1 odds got the better of her that day, and she weakened a bit to finish third. Four year old is halved in price for the last leg of the Pick 5, and recognize that her lone tally came right here. #4 MIA'S BOBTAIL went coast to coast like butter & toast in her lone go round off a L/O, and now finds herself at her lowest level yet; gal gets in light. #2 SABINA PARK drops a whopping dozen pounds off an even 4th place finish and is another who's never seen these depths.  NOTE: AS OF 5:37 P.M. WEDNESDAY, WE ARE AMENDING OUR SELECTIONS TO 2-4-5.

 

Race  6 

1.Thunder Mountain

2.Colliery

3.Bold Gem

#3 THUNDER MOUNTAIN is a bit of anomaly -- a five year old making his first career start -- and does such with a few crisp workouts on the ledger. There's a ton of turf pedigree way back in the family tree ( Storm Cat, Roberto, et al ), and the jockey/trainer combo have done extremely well together. #2 COLLIERY ( a British word for a coal mine, which is apropos for this son of Mineshaft ) went for 16 times the stud fee at Keeneland 2 1/2 years ago and has been performing more than admirably up at Payson Park for today's initial trip to the frontside, and first foal out of a lightly raced dam has decent enough bloodlines to merit inclusion. #7 BOLD GEM has earned minor checks in seven straight and gets a jockey upgrade from Maragh to Fanny Olson in this spot.  OFF TURF: 3-13(AE)-2-1-4

 

Race  7

1.Two Step Slew

2.Lapochka

3.Candy Crushem

#4 TWO STEP SLEW was uncharacteristically rank in his first try off a break, but still outran his 25-1 mutuel offering when completing the triple that day. 3 for 8 record at this distance obliterates the oh-fer-17 mark otherwise, and we'll give him a tepid nod. #1 LAPOCHKA is confidently hiked up the ladder after a smart score over this oval three fortnights ago, and that win brought this one's record at the dx. to two for three. Chestnut chap has partaken in the superfecta all three times he's broken from the pine, and may be able to work out a nice trip from the pocket. #7 CANDY CRUSHEM came along nicely to get 3rd place money on the 8th of this month and has done his best work going this distance of ground. 

 

Race  8 

1.Crosstown Shootout

2.Coop Tries Harder

3.Captain Ron

#1 CROSSTOWN SHOOTOUT lost by only a neck in his lone "second off off the L/O" sprint start ( adjusted 90.9 ), and has a "For Sale" sticker attached to his rump for the 1st time. Clearly, the comeback effort left a lot to be desired, but there's been a bullet breeze since, and we'll swing away at a good number. #5 COOP TRIES HARDER got the job done the last time he was paired up w/Bobblehead, and the J/T combination get the job done 33% of the time. #7 CAPTAIN RON has gone 11: 5-2-3 since returning from the H.P.P. ( Horsewitness Protection Program ) and owns a 3:2-0-1 boxscore when last to load.  OFF TURF: 7-1-3-4-5

 

Race  9 

1.Aficionado

2.Edge of Fire

3.Awesome Tiger

#6 AFICIONADO hasn't been in action since mid October, but three year old hit the board in all three of his freshman outings, and we love how it came at three different venues, and under three different sets of circumstances ( dirt, firm turf, and "good" turf ). There are a couple of delicious morning works on the ledger for today's return, and as this colt seems to have been well meant all along, we're expecting a solid effort at double digit odds. #2 EDGE OF FIRE got the job done right outta the box on the first of Feb., and 383 Tommy tells us that the result was likely not an aberration. #9 AWESOME TIGER is better bred for the dirt than the poly he performed well on last year, and would be no surprise in today's initial dirt start. 

 

Race  10

1.Wildlife

2.Rideforthecause

3.Solar Kitten

#6 WILDLIFE faced some tough gals back in 2019, and if you can see your way clear of the three off the three off the board finishes from her last quartet, then what you have is a gal who's 2 for 2 on the sod outside of stakes company. That's fine by us, and hopefully Corey can get this one over to the rail at some point in time. #4 RIDEFORTHECAUSE has improved with each passing start and got her Polaroid taken in her only start off a break. #2 SOLAR KITTEN hung up an adjusted 83.2 in her sole start off a break in the action, and may plod along for a piece.  OFF TURF: 5-4-7-2-9  NOTE: AS OF 5:39 P.M. WEDNESDAY, WE ARE AMENDING OUR SELECTIONS TO 8-6-4. 

 

Race  11

1.Montana Man

2.Bee Catcher

3.Fame to Famous

As we were unable to eliminate anyone with our first draft, you may want to tread lightly in the day's finale.  #6 MONTANA MAN was a lively runner up behind a next out winner in his only 1X to 2X turf attempt ( 72.4 ) and has the blinkers slapped on by a trainer who's 3-12 when doing that to those who have run already. Mild choice. Draw a crayola through the last start of #1 BEE CATCHER, as he reared at the beginning, effectively losing all chance. The January score just prior was more like it, and is a threat if able to get back to that effort. #11 FAME TO FAMOUS rounds things out ( which is another way of saying "It's 3:54 in the morning, and I'm running on fumes.  OFF TURF: 5-10-2-8-12

 

Gulfstream      ( Current ):        4-41     ( $42.10 )   Beatable Favorites    0-2    ( 0% )       Favorites Win %     17-41     ( 41.5% ) ( As of Friday Morning )


Aqueduct  ( Winter Meet ):     65-427    ( $615.10 )  Beatable  Favorites  8-18  ( 44.4% )   Favorites Win %:   174-427 ( 40.8% ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ):       2-8        ( $25.60 )    Beatable Favorites    N/A   (  N/A )      Favorites Win %:     2-8      ( 25.0% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 64-411  ( $581.30 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 139-411 (33.8%)  +/-: -29.2% against a 16.8% takeout  


Poly Tracks2013-16  (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-20 (All Final):2446-11999 ($20,517.70) Beatable Favorites : 335-1204( 27.8% )Favorite's Win %: 4577-12102 ( 37.8% ) +/-: -14.5%  against a 16.5% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 2531-12568 ($21,336.90)  Beatable Favorites : 350-1272( 27.5% )Favorite's Win %: 4739-12689 ( 37.4% ) +/-: -15.1%  against a 16.4% takeout


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