SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Gulfstream Selections & Analysis - 3/26
  
  

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Nothing on top for us here yesterday, but our "unders" aided us in getting home four exacta boxes of $111, $48, $27 & $25.

Recently we hit the 13,000 race plateau here, and as we do from time to time, we like to update where we are through the years.

Win rate: While never known for a high win percentage here, our win rate was 20% for our first ever meet -- and is STILL at 20%. ( At least we're consistent ! )

Beatable Favorites: Possibly the most popular innovation that we're proud to have come up with. The horses we select as our "Beatable Favorites" have won 27.5% of the time, while favorites have come in at 37.4% of the time through the years, so we've saved you some bread there.

R.O.I.: We are currently down 15.1% against a 16.4% blended takeout ( saving you about 8% ), and if you discount when we covered polytracks ( which we no longer do ), we are down 14.5% against a 16.5% takeout ( saving you about 12% ).

Will keep on working hard for y'all, and thanks again.


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 4 - #6 Rattle'em


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Gulfstream - 3/26

 

Race  1

1.Bettin Onna Kitten 

2.Mrs. Miniver

3.Kayseri 

#12 BETTIN ONNA KITTEN ( cross entered yesterday, so check the changes ) merely split an 11 horse field at 22-1 first time out, but has been freshened up a bit since then, an goes from an apprentice to a journeyman in today's opener, which is an angle we've always dug. Sire excelled going long on the lawn ( 13:3-7-0 ), and the back generation all did splendid things at this trip. You could do a lot worse for your longshot selections. #1 MRS. MINIVER hasn't done much to get the pulse racing of late, but is 2nd off the bench here, and daddy was the only one who touched the turf or poly ( which we somewhat equate to the green ), and he scored on it. #9 KAYSERI is dropped below the price claimed from the 1/21 event, makes her third start off a layoff, and loses the blinkers.  OFF TURF: 7-11-16(AE)-14(AE)-15  NOTE: AS OF 6:24 P.M. SUNDAY, WE ARE FLIP FLOPPING OUR TOP TWO SELECTIONS.

 

Race  2

1.Saint Larned

2.Meet Cute

3.Gran Causeway

#9 SAINT LARNED has some early zip and drops in weight and class; may go all the way. #3 MEET CUTE finds himself at his lowest level to date, and is 2 for 7 at this trip compared to having an 0-6 mark going other distances of ground. #5 GRAN CAUSEWAY can be forgiven the recent disappointment in this race last time out, as he had to tap on the brakes a bit, effectively losing all hope. There was a six pack of outings prior to that which tell us to leave this one in the mix versus these. 

 

Race  3

1.With a Bit of Luck

2.Cool Hand Coop

3.Guaco

#1 WITH A BIT OF LUCK has been performing more than admirably in the A.M.'s for today's overture, and that includes a nice gate move on the 8th, which is something we always like to see from a firster. Turf pedigree is decent enough, and this is the first foal out of a lightly raced dam, who's sire was 7:5-1-1 on the synthetic, and whose maternal grandsire won her only start on the stuff. Needn't need to send, merely trip out from the pocket. #10 COOL HAND COOP makes his 3rd star off a long sabbatical today, and may spice things up. #2 GUACO goes two turns to one, dirt to turf, and takes the biggest drop in the game. Any old timer'll tell you to toss in runners like this.  OFF TURF: 2-1-3-7-9

 

Race  4 

1.Strategic Outlook

2.Blakey

3.False Accusation

These three and no more for all our rolling action. #2 STRATEGIC OUTLOOK has improved over his last troika, and now finds himself at a level never seen. New York connections may get overlooked a bit in this spot, so we'll take a nibble. #1 BLAKEY is another who finds himself at the bottom level this afternoon, and Saez guided this one to a smart runner up finish in the penultimate outing. #5 FALSE ACCUSATION is a little bit of a nibbler ( 35:2-5-7 ), but brings in tow a solid adjusted figure, and should be a part of the mix late in the game.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #6 RATTLE'EM

 

Race  5 

1.Raspberry Ballet

2.Tynan

3.Sister Otoole

With all these gargantuan fields early on, we're fortunate enough to have another race where the ones we list will be the only one's we'll be using.  #5 RASPBERRY BALLET has done some fine work on the gramma so far, partaking in the superfecta in three of four, and has done such while earning sweet figaros. Note that the five year old mare broke a bit flat footed in the first off the L/O try last time out, and is eligible to move up in a big way with that under her belt. #9 TYNAN will be on the choo choo for as long as her grey legs will take her. #4 SISTER OTOOLE dead heated for the show dough when going over the blades for the first time, and sheds 32 ounces off that performance.  OFF TURF:5-3-8-4-7  NOTE: AS OF 12:02, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #1 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  6

1.Cat's Astray

2.Ballie's Dream

3.Hire the Lady

Once again, we won't be delvng deeper than this troika for all horizontal wagering. #1 CAT'S ASTRAY has partaken in the exacta in four of her last five, and while that may tell the tale for some ( seconditis ), we're assuaged by the fact that NONE of those came when favored, and the last duet were at more than 20-1. Liking her chances. #2 BALLIE'S DREAM shoots for the hat trick today, and it's well within reach, as this one has steadily improved over her last quartet. 4:2-0-2 record at Hallandale Beach obliterates the 19:0-1-6 mark at other venues, and this ain't much of a hike in class. #9 HIRE THE LADY has completed the exacta ( or exactor, or perfecta ) in both starts when beginning from the outermost three slots, and accomplished the same in her lone pairing w/ Gonzalez; may land a share.  NOTE: AS OF 6:32 P.M. SUNDAY, THE #9 WILL BE OUR TOP SELECTION.  NOTE: AS OF 12:08, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #6 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  7 

1.Animal Trick

2.Il Faraone

3.Yes I See

We don't have a real good read on this race, so tread lightly. #5 ANIMAL TRICK was as game as a 3rd place finisher could be when facing slightly weaker 40 days back, and gelding won by a zillion lengths the last time he went from 1X to two, and has done quite well at this trip and over this strip. Meeeek "cherce". #1 IL FARAONE has been alternating losses and wins for a bit now, so today should be a tally, right? If only the game was that simple. Chestnut chap has been ITM in four of six when starting from the inside, and has done his finest work right here in south Florida. #3 YES I SEE is 3 fer 6 when going from one turn to two, and that compares slightly favorably to the 11-45 mark otherwise. BIG switch from Rajiv Maragh to Lopez, who had seven winners on Saturday. Logical inclusion.  NOTE: AS OF 6:33 P.M. SUNDAY, WE ARE FLIP FLOPPING OUR TOP TWO SELECTIONS.

 

Race  8

1.Rooney

2.Rosa Star

3.For Kicks

#2 ROONEY -- named after the owner of my favorite football team ( the Steelers ), as well, as owning one of the classiest Greyhound tracks in America ( the Palm Beach Kennel Club ) -- may have beaten home just one in the last two, but we always go back three races to find something positive, and the maiden breaker on Jan. 31 was a goodie. Fanny got us a winner here the other day, and we'll lean her way in a wide open affair. #10 ROSA STAR is 14:0-5-5 on the GP turf, and that's cause enough to spot beneath. #3 FOR KICKS can plod along for a piece of pizza.  OFF TURF: 3-1-8-5-7  NOTE: AS OF 12:12, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #4 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  9 

1.Running for Riz

2.Where Paradise Lay

3.Zorb

#4 RUNNING FOR RIZ finished second in this race at a whopping 86-1 a month and a half back, and will UNDOUBTEDLY get overlooked in the odds department because of several bigger names signed on. We'll take a shot at a number, because you know what they say...nobody beats the Riz !  #7 WHERE PARADISE LAY displayed nada in the comebacker, but all of the starts before the absence were solid, and with some bottom for Hough, could be tough. #3 ZORB is 3:0-2-1 at Gulf., 2:1-1-0 @ the dx., and is displaying a crisp bullet for the return engagement; landing on Meneses again, as we feel he's a better jock than his stats belie. ( We don't say that too often. )  NOTE: AS OF 12:09, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #10 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  10 

1.Quality Special 

2.Doctor D J 

3.Devoted Kitten

#5 QUALITY SPECIAL faded at the halfway point in his lone spin over the blades, but hey -- he was dueling down and on the inside in that heat, and it was his first try over the stuff. The speed is there, there are ten less pounds in the saddle today, and we can see our way clear to a wire job beneath a bug we have faith in. #2 DOCTOR D J was a well beaten runner up in an off the turf last time facing the starter, and we like the nice # in the fast track event before that, AND the nice # in the turf event just before that. Best results have come at this dist.. #9 DEVOTED KITTEN rounds out the triple.  OFF TURF: 1-2-9-5-8 



Gulfstream      ( Current ):        4-31     ( $42.10 )   Beatable Favorites    0-1    ( 0% )       Favorites Win %     12-31     ( 38.7% ) ( As of Thursday Morning )


Aqueduct  ( Winter Meet ):     65-427    ( $615.10 )  Beatable  Favorites  8-18  ( 44.4% )   Favorites Win %:   174-427 ( 40.8% ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ):       2-8        ( $25.60 )    Beatable Favorites    N/A   (  N/A )      Favorites Win %:     2-8      ( 25.0% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 64-411  ( $581.30 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 139-411 (33.8%)  +/-: -29.2% against a 16.8% takeout  


Poly Tracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-20 (All Final):2446-11999 ($20,517.70) Beatable Favorites : 335-1204( 27.8% )Favorite's Win %: 4577-12102 ( 37.8% ) +/-: -14.5%  against a 16.5% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 2531-12568 ($21,336.90)  Beatable Favorites : 350-1272( 27.5% )Favorite's Win %: 4739-12689 ( 37.4% ) +/-: -15.1%  against a 16.4% takeout


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